ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trending toward ECMWF no doubt here. Weaker and a little south.

[SFLcane]

Lol....TD into the Caribbean

[stormlover2013]

Yep sure is!!! Crazy man

[tarheelprogrammer]

I go by the rule of until the ECMWF shows it I am not buying it at all. Usually end up right. A few more runs by GFS and there might not be a storm.

[weathaguyry]

Pretty sure GFS has caved with Euro, I see nothing but a wave at 114 hours

[Bocadude85]

Yup definitely caving towards the Euro...@120hours nothing at the surface.

[weathaguyry]

[stormlover2013]

King euro

[SFLcane]

Rediculous...

[weathaguyry]

Wait a minute, things might be a bit interesting at hour 132...

[chaser1]

I know it is a long way out, but a nerve-wracking week may be in store...

"Big Time"! And, were not yet even entertaining September and October. The Oceanic SST content for the W. Caribbean is intense and while possibly having nothing to do with "potential Gaston" threatening the Leewards/P.R., in about 96 hours, I think there's gonna be some scary times ahead over the upcoming 3 months for the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Conus.

As I"m writing this I'm sure others are more quickly updating this thread with the 0Z GFS as it comes out. One thing I noticed is that when comparing the latest 0Z 102 hours forecast against the prior 18Z GFS, both 99L and the next wave behind it are not quite as deep. So essentially we have the GFS compromising toward the EURO (which thus far has shown no development of 99L. Other interesting thing to consider is that typically the GFS is far more sensitive to picking up on development (sometimes to an absolute fault) but where the EURO typically has a more difficult time picking out longer term genesis of smaller tropical systems, it usually picks out larger scale systems far better. The overall envelope of 99L seems fairly significant in size and the recent 18Z GFS was at one point dropping the pressures of 99L down to Cat 4 (or higher. It just seems odd that if 99L were to actually develop into a fairly large and deep tropical cyclone, that the EURO would be entirely in the dark here. Lets see if we see some significant changes to the 0Z EURO run later. If not, than my guess is that we'll see the GFS continue to back off on near to mid term development, but also might indicate a more shallow system that could track more to the south and sweep the islands in the N. Caribbean as it does. Then,we]ll have to start worrying all over again but for the Islands perhaps, rather than the S.E. Conus. Interesting times ahead.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Rediculous...

Typical Atlantic basin recently. ECMWF has not forgotten. All it took was one run to go from hurricane to nothing lol. That is terrible and so wrong only 90 hours out. Expect it to shift even more toward ECMWF.

[Bocadude85]

Wait a minute, things might be a bit interesting at hour 132...

Yea...heading toward Hispanola as a depression.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS doesn't even develop the wave behind 99L anymore unbelievable!

[weathaguyry]

Lol, back to a wave at hour 138

[Alyono]

and the UKMET is back aboard the development train...

it also develops 2 others. Not sure how likely this run is

[TheStormExpert]

I swear we go through this model storm crap every year about around this time with the GFS.

[Siker]

00z UKMET develops this, don't know why I can't copy text output on my phone.

[SeGaBob]

Might be a dud... but too early to say king euro.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS looks like it starts cooking at hour 162 north of Hispaniola.