ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

156hr on the 0zGFS is north of Hispaniola things could get interesting north of there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Blown Away]

and the UKMET is back aboard the development train...

it also develops 2 others. Not sure how likely this run is

Ok Alyono, what does a forecaster think when a model goes from Cat 4 to TW in sameday??

[PTrackerLA]

LOL, vort becoming much better defined at 168 hrs...

[Hammy]

Honestly at this point I think the GFS needs to be decommissioned and outright replaced ASAP, it's basically been garbage season after season (and with most of the weather patterns really). As I've said in earlier threads we will absolutely not have any hurricanes in the Atlantic until we're out of the current phase of the MJO. Euro knows this, the GFS can't seem to make up it's mind or even come up with a proper output based on existing conditions--that it was so strong in earlier runs with the Euro showing nothing should've really been a red flag that the runs were bs.

[weathaguyry]

...

[Hurricaneman]

and the UKMET is back aboard the development train...

it also develops 2 others. Not sure how likely this run is

Ok Alyono, what does a forecaster think when a model goes from Cat 4 to TW in sameday??

I'm not going to speak for Alyono but it usually indicates no development or very little development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[SeGaBob]

Too early to say it was wrong. 7-10 days out still

[TheStormExpert]

Honestly at this point I think the GFS needs to be decommissioned and outright replaced ASAP, it's basically been garbage season after season (and with most of the weather patterns really). As I've said in earlier threads we will absolutely not have any hurricanes in the Atlantic until we're out of the current phase of the MJO. Euro knows this, the GFS can't seem to make up it's mind or even come up with a proper output based on existing conditions--that it was so strong in earlier runs with the Euro showing nothing should've really been a red flag that the runs were bs.

Couldn't of said it better! It's pretty sad and pathetic when you're own American produced computer weather model can not get a darn thing right!

[chaser1]

UH OHHHHH. I am beginning to really believe that E. Coast Florida will have a Cat 2 or Cat 3 landfall from this event.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Unless I missed the crystal ball sale, the jury is still out with 99L. The GFS is weaker this run, but it still shows an intensifying cyclone in the Bahamas. If we see a trend in subsequent runs toward the Euro, then we can break out the storm cancel posts. Until then, hanging your hat on one model run is amateurish. The UKMET is back aboard the development train.

Just let time progress.

[TheStormExpert]

UH OHHHHH. I am beginning to really believe that E. Coast Florida will have a Cat 2 or Cat 3 landfall from this event.

Why? All I see is a TD or weak TS struggling to live.

[weathaguyry]

Uh oh, we spoke a little soon...

[Blown Away]

Maybe TS at 192 hours.

[floridasun78]

the way i see i I going wait untill get act together more see runs of models next week when get closer to islands by than models will be more agreement we see models chance alot

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[TheStormExpert]

What exactly does the 00z UKMET show?

[p1nheadlarry]

I know it is a long way out, but a nerve-wracking week may be in store...

"Big Time"! And, were not yet even entertaining September and October. The Oceanic SST content for the W. Caribbean is intense and while possibly having nothing to do with "potential Gaston" threatening the Leewards/P.R., in about 96 hours, I think there's gonna be some scary times ahead over the upcoming 3 months for the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Conus.

As I"m writing this I'm sure others are more quickly updating this thread with the 0Z GFS as it comes out. One thing I noticed is that when comparing the latest 0Z 102 hours forecast against the prior 18Z GFS, both 99L and the next wave behind it are not quite as deep. So essentially we have the GFS compromising toward the EURO (which thus far has shown no development of 99L. Other interesting thing to consider is that typically the GFS is far more sensitive to picking up on development (sometimes to an absolute fault) but where the EURO typically has a more difficult time picking out longer term genesis of smaller tropical systems, it usually picks out larger scale systems far better. The overall envelope of 99L seems fairly significant in size and the recent 18Z GFS was at one point dropping the pressures of 99L down to Cat 4 (or higher. It just seems odd that if 99L were to actually develop into a fairly large and deep tropical cyclone, that the EURO would be entirely in the dark here. Lets see if we see some significant changes to the 0Z EURO run later. If not, than my guess is that we'll see the GFS continue to back off on near to mid term development, but also might indicate a more shallow system that could track more to the south and sweep the islands in the N. Caribbean as it does. Then,we]ll have to start worrying all over again but for the Islands perhaps, rather than the S.E. Conus. Interesting times ahead.

If October's pattern is anything like the last two years, or its analog year of say 1998, it could get wild. If you take a stab at averaging when the MJO pulse would be in the ATL, you're looking pretty close to the second climatological peak of the season as well.

[SouthDadeFish]

Honestly at this point I think the GFS needs to be decommissioned and outright replaced ASAP, it's basically been garbage season after season (and with most of the weather patterns really). As I've said in earlier threads we will absolutely not have any hurricanes in the Atlantic until we're out of the current phase of the MJO. Euro knows this, the GFS can't seem to make up it's mind or even come up with a proper output based on existing conditions--that it was so strong in earlier runs with the Euro showing nothing should've really been a red flag that the runs were bs.

Are you familiar with the governing equations of the atmosphere? I think it's much more complex than you realize. I genuinely wish it were that easy. Also, what if this wave develops and the GFS is right? It's not dead yet. Certainly the GFS could be better, but it's still one of the world's best models at the moment. Predicting tropical cyclone formation and intensification is a very tricky task.

[Bocadude85]

TS heading for SE Florida at hour 204

[Blown Away]

00z GFS could be minimal hurricane into SFL...

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS still forecasts TC development, albeit slightly later in the run. The upper-level pattern forecast by the GFS is very conducive to TC intensification when the system is in the Bahamas. The 500 hPa ridge to the N of the TC likely will result in a FL landfall this run. I shall now take the time to remind everyone that this is VERY FAR into the future and much can and likely will change.