ATL: HERMINE - Models

[chaser1]

Latest 0Z 500mb is indicating a stubborn 591mb high parked over the Carolina's with a positivily tilted long wave pattern seemingly remaining over the N. Plains or Great Lakes region during this time. Keep in mind that we're not necessarily just seeing the GFS playing "now you see it, now you don't" with 99L. This track is very similar to prior runs and depending on how/if a developing low tracks over the islands, well of course we're not going to see development while tangled up with Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Timing is everything and earlier development might likely take a deeper storm N. of the Islands. Then, were back to guessing trajectory and possibly risk to the CONUS. A weaker system possibly moves more westward and not develop until some point further west. I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy about the UK jumping on board either.

[psyclone]

The fact that the model thread contains 3X as many pages as the main thread for 99L is telling. I'll become more interested when/if the main thread for 99L picks up...as that will indicate system is actually doing something/forming.

[floridasun78]

i been watching topic on my vacations from my tablet i see what posting all models run the way i see it alot thing happen in 10 days so wait for system get close islands i see what show than i see a lot point toward fl but than change showing other state go out to sea

[Alyono]

look at cmc for a laugh. Looks like both Fiona and this system hit the East coast at the same time

[Bocadude85]

SFL landfall around the Miami area @ 222 hours.

[p1nheadlarry]

look at cmc for a laugh. Looks like both Fiona and this system hit the East coast at the same time

I believe Future made a song about that

[TheStormExpert]

Minimal hurricane hit on extreme SE FL @ 222hrs.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a panhandle cane hit on the way at 240 hrs.

[weathaguyry]

Looks to be intensifying in the GOM now...

[TheStormExpert]

In my opinion I think the GFS is currently in the process of caving towards the Euro little by little each run.

[wflamholtz]

In my opinion I think the GFS is currently in the process of caving towards the Euro little by little each run.

Very hard to say, especially since this looks like the 12z run to me. Tons of time to watch this thing

[SeGaBob]

Weakened at 252 hours looks like.

[weathaguyry]

[TheStormExpert]

Weakened at 252 hours looks like.

No that's just due to the resolution lowering.

[Bocadude85]

Unless I missed the crystal ball sale, the jury is still out with 99L. The GFS is weaker this run, but it still shows an intensifying cyclone in the Bahamas. If we see a trend in subsequent runs toward the Euro, then we can break out the storm cancel posts. Until then, hanging your hat on one model run is amateurish. The UKMET is back aboard the development train.

Just let time progress.

Very well said. Let's wait and see what the 6z GFS shows

[TheStormExpert]

Second Florida landfall near Pensacola as a Cat.2/minimal Cat.3 @ 276hrs.

[SeGaBob]

Weakened at 252 hours looks like.

No that's just due to the resolution lowering.

Ok didn't know

[Hammy]

Weakened at 252 hours looks like.

No that's just due to the resolution lowering.

Ok didn't know

I've noted that too, the actual surface resolution seems to revert to the 10m scale after 240 hours.

[chaser1]

The fact that the model thread contains 3X as many pages as the main thread for 99L is telling. I'll become more interested when/if the main thread for 99L picks up...as that will indicate system is actually doing something/forming.

Correct, except one key factor that separates these two threads at this present time.
1) We have a vigorous wave presently in the MDR which is maintaining its structure but fighting to maintain a level of convective activity. Why?

2) Just like a couple of trolling rods being fished from behind a boat, we're starting to really get some repeated bounces on at least a couple of the fishing rod tips and its hard to ignore that something is chasing or nibling at the bait. Point being, the GFS seems to really be honing in on development of 99L and the ensemble members are oddly becoming quite in line for a period this far out. Sure, we're seeing big inconsistancy regarding intensity. There seems to be a pretty obviousl reason why however (land).

Prediction: 99L maintains itself without significant strengthening for at least 2-3 days. Suddenly, the EURO will wake up on Sunday and suddenly begin to forecast genesis with this system, and more or less in line with the GFS (which for the next 2 days will continue to bounce around between a weaker low south or over the Greater Antilles, & slightly strong will deepening and moving just north of Hispanola). I think that there will be a potential risk to the Central and W. Bahamas and plausably for a Cat 2 - Cat 4 to impact the E. Florida coastline from somewhere between W. Palm and Daytona Beach. Assuming that these steering conditions play out, than I'd think that a significant threat could play out along the N. Gulf coast somewhere between the W. Fla. Panhandle and E. Louisiana.

[floridasun78]

00z GFS could be minimal hurricane into SFL...

i seen alot time showing south fl land falll to models showing going more nw or ne out to see