ATL: HERMINE - Models

[USTropics]

Vorticity on the 00z run is a bit faster and a tad more north compared to the 00z GFS run at 72 hours:

ECMWF 00z 72 hours:


GFS 00z 72 hours:

[Caneman12]

Can i get a answer DID THE UKMET DROP THIS OR DEVELOP IT

Sat Aug 20 01:34:16 EDT 2016

391 WTNT80 EGRR 200418
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

Code: Select all

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.08.2016
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.4N  64.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.08.2016  18.4N  64.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 25.08.2016  19.3N  68.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2016  21.1N  71.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2016  22.5N  74.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

Thank you so much for this Info sorry for using caps lol

[Caneman12]

If the euro gets on board that would mean every model but the NAVGEm shows development which would make it likely

[Bocadude85]

Looks even better at 96 hours

[USTropics]

Strengthening and heading towards the northern Leewards, this is in pretty good agreement with the GFS now:

[weathaguyry]

Well, earlier we all thought the GFS was caving in to the Euro, but now maybe the Euro is caving to the GFS

[USTropics]

The 12z ECMWF ensembles were trending towards development as well:

[SouthFLTropics]

The question remains...what is the ridge and shortwave setup going to be. Do we get a turn OTS from the Euro or does it head west.

[USTropics]

120 hours, 99L is just north of PR:

http://i.imgur.com/ljDcBCi.png

[Caneman12]

Glad to see the Euro on board i feel so much better now

[USTropics]

144 hours 99L is in the Bahamas, let's see if it begins to strengthen here like the 00z GFS (ECMWF run is also a full day ahead of the GFS's 00z location):

http://i.imgur.com/LfOLERF.png

[Siker]

144 hours, open in the Bahamas. That vertical bit of energy ahead of it is actually Fiona's remnants:

[Siker]

Ends up caught in a whole mess of energy from ex-Fiona + a decaying front by 192 hours.

[Frank2]

GFS gives the Miami scenario but its been a windshield wiper. Truth is environment is not very good for either Fiona or 99L. Hoping they remain so...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0842.shtml?

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS much weaker with a moderate TS into extreme SE tip of Florida @ 210hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't really start strengthening until in the SE GoM now.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS @ 240hrs. before resolution decrease.

[TheStormExpert]

Second landfall in South-Central Louisiana as a decent hurricane in 288hrs.

[Kingarabian]

Each run now, the GFS has something new.

[gatorcane]

Just remember what the models were showing for Earl around this time and look what happened. Think the GFS had a weak TS around the Yucatan and Euro didn't show much, maybe some strong vorticity.