ATL: HERMINE - Models

[NDG]

Very strange that the 0z Euro has 99L weakening near the SE Bahamas, its UL winds forecast shows the UL anticyclone just on top of it all the into the Bahamas.

[Steve]

Each run now, the GFS has something new.

That's to be expected imho. Recurve, develops/doesn't develop, recurves farther and farther west, adjusts, gets to reality 3-4 days out.

[NDG]

Each run now, the GFS has something new.

That's to be expected imho. Recurve, develops/doesn't develop, recurves farther and farther west, adjusts, gets to reality 3-4 days out.

Yeah, for a while it was very consistent on strong development right before the Leeward Islands, but after that is nothing usual for it to show different tracks this far out in the 5-14 day range.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like the gfs is starting to side with the euro and figure it out. Each run is becoming gradually weaker and not doing much of anything in the Atlantic. Just 24 hrs ago it had a hurricane in the northern Leewards. Now not so much.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at.the model runs and checking the upper level level pattern, it is appearing as of now, that the ridge over the western Atlantic looks very healthy. Things could change, but the ridge in the long term really looks as strong as I have seen it this season.

I am not going to focus on a partcular point or exact.region because of the variables and uncertainties still present looking 7-10 days out. However, given the steering pattern,, which is being presented by the reliable models, interests living in these areas below need to really closely monitor as time progresses in the order below:

The Eastern Caribbean and Greater Antilles of course, then the possibility of the CONUS, based on the forecast steering pattern, which could occur from North Central Gulf Coast region east across all of Florida and the extreme SE Atlantic coast.

I think the ridge will be too strong to block any turn outto sea scenario and I would think given the forecasted upper pattern, I would give rather low probabilities of this developing potential cyclone going north of Charleston, SC.

Again, lots of time to watch all of this unfold, but my to my best educated reasoning, this is how I am seeing thil.p.s at this juncture, with extreme caution I may add knowing how.things can change forecasting the tropics, especially talking 7-10 days out.

[JaxGator]

Looks like the gfs is starting to side with the euro and figure it out. Each run is becoming gradually weaker and not doing much of anything in the Atlantic. Just 24 hrs ago it had a hurricane in the northern Leewards. Now not so much.

I disagree. With the Euro now showing development (again), it's a more of a sign that it will probably develop. Regardless of intensity, the GFS and other models seem to show more favorable conditions near the Bahamas. We'll have to see how the models handle this as it goes along.

[cycloneye]

[stormlover2013]

Yeah the ridge looks strong but we still have a long long ways to go

[gatorcane]

Models showing a strong Bermuda High returning is no surprise as I can count the number of times on one hand we have seen storms move in from the west across SE Florida this summer as east flow has been persistent. The pattern has been locked in nearly every day since the summer started

[NDG]

Yes, ridging across the eastern US & SE Canada will be back strong next week as it has been during the past few weeks but the 0z Euro throws a wrench in it, it develops a mid and upper level low just west of Bermuda. I think this is why it shows no further development of 99L & no further forward westward motion north of the Greater Antilles. But I have noticed that the Euro has been trying for days now to forecast a mid & upper level low near Bermuda for days now in its medium to long range forecast and it has not come to fruition.

[centuryv58]

Looks like the gfs is starting to side with the euro and figure it out. Each run is becoming gradually weaker and not doing much of anything in the Atlantic. Just 24 hrs ago it had a hurricane in the northern Leewards. Now not so much.

I disagree. With the Euro now showing development (again), it's a more of a sign that it will probably develop. Regardless of intensity, the GFS and other models seem to show more favorable conditions near the Bahamas. We'll have to see how the models handle this as it goes along.

I agree with your disagree. Each run is not becoming weaker. Don't know what people think they see on these runs sometimes.

[northjaxpro]

Gatorcane, I agree you have been posting on the forum consistently all season long about the pattern. Stormlover, I preface everything in my post about how things can change in the tropics, especially within 10 days out. My earlier post is just my educated opinion based on the steering pattern being forecasted currently.We all know things canand often do change. Even subtle changes in the 7-10 day range can make huge differences.

[gatorcane]

Very strange that the 0z Euro has 99L weakening near the SE Bahamas, its UL winds forecast shows the UL anticyclone just on top of it all the into the Bahamas.

I remember you put up a similar graphic for Earl when the ECMWF was not developing it, granted it was the Eastern Caribbean where it did not get named anyway

[tolakram]

Well if anyone thought what the GFS was showing would be anywhere close to reality they haven't been model watching very long.

An objective analysis would show the GFS and euro coming closer to agreement, it appears there may be some development near the islands up toward PR, and then after that is still up in the air. The euro tends to be much better at upper air patterns so I do think it's fair to give the euro some more weight when comparing the two, but going full with either model is a mistake. Over and over again the NHC uses a blend and over and over again they end up having the best forecast, better than either model.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, even less support from ECM Ensemble Members on the 00z.

I cannot imagine a robust 850mb vort getting into the bath water around the Bahamas and not attempting to develop unless you had screaming wind shear and from what I see there isn't.

Has anyone picked up on what the ECM is finding so unfavorable?

[stormlover2013]

I agree north!!! Love reading what you have to post!! Always good stuff

[NDG]

Wow, even less support from ECM Ensemble Members on the 00z.

I cannot imagine a robust 850mb vort getting into the bath water around the Bahamas and not attempting to develop unless you had screaming wind shear and from what I see there isn't.

Has anyone picked up on what the ECM is finding so unfavorable?

Yes, I figure it out why, the ECMWF shows a mid and upper level low developing just west of Bermuda and a stout UL High over western North Carolina causing a sinking motion over & north of the Bahamas, not good for tropical systems. But like I mentioned earlier the Euro has been erroneous in wanting to forecast a mid and upper level cut off low near or just west of Bermuda for days now in its medium to long range forecast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/766978962161479680

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766989639727001600

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766989639727001600

Dr Phil is jumping with joy with the 06z GFS run that his 2 week forecast is not in jeopardy, but I would had waited until the 12z run