ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SFLcane]

It's not the gfs its the Atlantic basin something is up basin wide.

[Yellow Evan]

idk why people would expect this to bomb out over the Bahamas after interacting with Hispanola and with no MJO/CCKW help. I expect the GFS to back off in intensity gradually the past few days, and now it appears to be playing out.

[TheStormExpert]

So @ 240hrs. we have weak little 99L in SE GoM, and future 90L(Gaston?) as a monster Cat.4 hurricane heading due west or just south of west towards the Carolinas.

Go home GFS you're DRUNK!

[Florida1118]

I see we are all having temper tantrums today over a model run. Just remember, what you say now may hurt your credibility later when quoted

[Yellow Evan]

So @ 240hrs. we have weak little 99L in SE GoM, and future 90L(Gaston?) as a monster Cat.4 hurricane heading due west or just south of west towards the Carolinas.

Go home GFS you're DRUNK!

http://i64.tinypic.com/ohpavp.jpg

Aside from possible the intensity of future 90L/Gaston/Hermine, I don't see what's unreasonable about 2 TC's in that area 10 days out.

[gatorcane]

CMC still showing a possible major hurricane coming out of this as it has for several runs now. Yeah I know it is the CMC but it has been consistent with this forecast and has shifted west with each run.

[TheStormExpert]

So @ 240hrs. we have weak little 99L in SE GoM, and future 90L(Gaston?) as a monster Cat.4 hurricane heading due west or just south of west towards the Carolinas.

Go home GFS you're DRUNK!

http://i64.tinypic.com/ohpavp.jpg

Aside from possible the intensity of future 90L/Gaston/Hermine, I don't see what's unreasonable about 2 TC's in that area 10 days out.

You just said it, no MJO or Kelvin waves.

[BobHarlem]

Geez, Time to go dark on models until something actually develops. Tail end of fantasyland GFS Slams a major into Panama City out of 99l.

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw the Canadian has a major hurricane near the Bahamas moving NW towards the South East coast

[TheStormExpert]

Let's see what the 12z Euro shows in an hour before writing this off.

By the way does the 12z UKMET still develop this?

[Blown Away]

Fwiw the Canadian has a major hurricane near the Bahamas moving NW towards the South East coast

Canadian develops 99L into major whereas GFS develops TW behind 99L... Crazy

[tarheelprogrammer]

Fwiw the Canadian has a major hurricane near the Bahamas moving NW towards the South East coast

Canadian develops 99L into major whereas GFS develops TW behind 99L... Crazy

Yeah follow this link:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Alyono]

Next please... I surrender euro but I get it this basin is just pure garbage as of late.

I take it you did not follow things in the last quit phase. This was NORMAL back then. We are in a quiet phase once again. This may be the norm for 20+ years

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

[Steve]

Next please... I surrender euro but I get it this basin is just pure garbage as of late.

I take it you did not follow things in the last quit phase. This was NORMAL back then. We are in a quiet phase once again. This may be the norm for 20+ years

Either you have been on a board-wide troll since just after 57 pulled his off, or the posters here are rubbing off on you. No way the normal Alyono makes those kinds of pronouncements. Not even a 1% chance.

[Steve]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

I disagree. It's up to people to stop being big babies or on an acute mania/depression wave every time something has potential to develop. Seriously.

[BobHarlem]

Yep, time to ignore models until something develops:

CMC..

[Blown Away]

Next please... I surrender euro but I get it this basin is just pure garbage as of late.

I take it you did not follow things in the last quit phase. This was NORMAL back then. We are in a quiet phase once again. This may be the norm for 20+ years

I agree, but when does the "Scientific Community" acknowledge we are/have been in a quieter phase... It's been "We are not sure" for years... Yes, following hurricanes when I was a kid during the late 70's and 1980's was painful...

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

I disagree. It's up to people to stop being big babies or on a acute mania/depression wave every time something has potential to develop. Seriously.

To each their own. I just feel like in situations like this the GFS tends to hype up situations or people hype them up when they see it. The ECMWF and CMC tend to not get as much hype but they also only go out to 240 hours. Even as bad as the CMC is it helps not having an extra 144 hours to show pure fantasy. That is all I have to say about it.

[tolakram]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

I disagree. It's up to people to stop being big babies or on an acute mania/depression wave every time something has potential to develop. Seriously.

Let's ALL just take a breather please. Euro starts in 40 minutes. If you think a single model run is going to make or break a season best stay away.