ATL: HERMINE - Models

[centuryv58]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

I disagree. It's up to people to stop being big babies or on an acute mania/depression wave every time something has potential to develop. Seriously.

Let's ALL just take a breather please. Euro starts in 40 minutes. If you think a single model run is going to make or break a season best stay away.

AMEN to that brother!

[Frank2]

The old NHC "on the map" thinking made sense - if a trackable system was there, then they'd go to work, but if was just a wave, swirl, etc., then they'd monitor it, but nothing more...

Long-range models that show disaster stress people, only to dissolve into the next run - not worth the anxiety...

GFS is still all over the place as with the others - though AW mentioned in the short term a strong Fall high over NE US in the next 5 days, which could keep 99L westward (the last part is my own thought)...

[TheAustinMan]

This back-and-forth sort of modelling is why global forecast models are tools and not crystal balls or oracles. If we look at the GFS ensembles, we find that there's still plenty of support for tropical cyclogenesis. No tropical wave should simply be "written off" just because some models at this range drop development. The board's having a bit of a meltdown over a run that still has a tropical storm moving through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf - if that were to verify that would still be a fairly significant threat, and I'm sure those who were under the canopy of endless rainfall earlier this week and last week do not want a tropical cyclone headed their way.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM more bullish than 06Z which started showing 99L becoming a cyclone the first time in its run guidance:

[tolakram]

Just to document the GFS run, it ends up coming ashore just past hour 348. For entertainment only.

[tolakram]

HWRF running, still starts slow development before the islands.

[Steve]

I think when they redo the GFS they need to limit it to 240 hours like the other models. That could stop all the drama and social media posts. Even I get caught up in it sometimes.

I disagree. It's up to people to stop being big babies or on a acute mania/depression wave every time something has potential to develop. Seriously.

To each their own. I just feel like in situations like this the GFS tends to hype up situations or people hype them up when they see it. The ECMWF and CMC tend to not get as much hype but they also only go out to 240 hours. Even as bad as the CMC is it helps not having an extra 144 hours to show pure fantasy. That is all I have to say about it.

I understand your point, but why limit information because some people can't handle it? It's just what I said. People throwing in the towel because a longer range model run changed and no longer threatens them, onus should be on those individuals and not the model = doesn't mean damn the model. Science exists to understand and help explain what's going on. Models are less and less perfect as we go out in time. But we should want to improve them, not do away with them. Information is neutral. People who use it are not. Ultimately, it's on the people squawking, hyping or downing. Anyone with a lick of sense (which should be most on this forum) knows not to hype up models over a week out most of the time. There are rare exceptions of course.

[Steve]

The old NHC "on the map" thinking made sense - if a trackable system was there, then they'd go to work, but if was just a wave, swirl, etc., then they'd monitor it, but nothing more...

Long-range models that show disaster stress people, only to dissolve into the next run - not worth the anxiety...

GFS is still all over the place as with the others - though AW mentioned in the short term a strong Fall high over NE US in the next 5 days, which could keep 99L westward (the last part is my own thought)...

Then don't follow them. But wait, you're in here 10 days out. Inconsistent.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles looks to show a lower MSLP in a week's time than the 06Z and focused over the SE Bahamas:

[NDG]

Crosses Puerto Rico as an open wave in 120hrs.

Not quiet open.

[gatorcane]

out a little farther at 192 hours, we see a lot of GFS ensembles in the Bahamas area. I count 12 of them below:

[Blown Away]

I do think PR/Hispaniola land interaction with a developing weak low played a role in the past 12z, 06z, and 00z GFS runs... The past 18z GFS run lifted farther N once past PR and developed... There are other factors, but the land interaction played a big role IMO...

[gatorcane]

I do think PR/Hispaniola land interaction with a developing weak low played a role in the past 12z, 06z, and 00z GFS runs... The past 18z GFS run lifted farther N once past PR and developed... There are other factors, but the land interaction played a big role IMO...

Yes but the NHC's outlook/shading seems to suggest they think it could maybe go just north of the islands. The NHC also has the FSU Superensembles which we don't have access to. I wonder if the majority of them are showing just north of the islands. NHC has gone to 60% now.

[LarryWx]

out a little farther at 192 hours, we see a lot of GFS ensembles in the Bahamas area. I count 12 of them below:

Gator,
A whopping 8 of the 20 GEFS members hit the S half of FL, which is more than the prior 2 runs at least

[tolakram]

12Z Euro initialized.

[gatorcane]

out a little farther at 192 hours, we see a lot of GFS ensembles in the Bahamas area. I count 12 of them below:
https://s3.postimg.org/sedapq6fn/gfs_em ... atl_33.png

Gator,
A whopping 8 of the 20 GEFS members hit the S half of FL, which is more than the prior 2 runs at least

Yep interesting indeed seems like more a possibility 99L could make it into at least the SE Bahamas area.

[Steve]

out a little farther at 192 hours, we see a lot of GFS ensembles in the Bahamas area. I count 12 of them below:
https://s3.postimg.org/sedapq6fn/gfs_em ... atl_33.png

Gator,
A whopping 8 of the 20 GEFS members hit the S half of FL, which is more than the prior 2 runs at least

Yep interesting indeed seems like more a possibility 99L could make it into at least the SE Bahamas area.

Agreed. I think that's one of the hottest spots for this year (along with Florida and possibly the SE US Coast). I think it's also a logical place for 99L to end up (of course it could be a couple hundred miles north or south, but I think it gets that far west at least).

[Bocadude85]

HWRF still showing development into a hurricane in the Caribbean...weakens to a tropical storm as it heads towards Hispanola.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082012&fh=108&xpos=0&ypos=445

[tolakram]

If you step back through the runs on TT it appears the euro is continuing to increase the vorticity of this system. 4 runs ago there was nothing.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Regarding what this may or not become IF it even makes it into the gulf, when was the last time anything has not struggled to develop in the gulf besides south of 20 in the boc? We have seen it year after year, invest after invest, storm after storm. I hope it gets sheared to death or turns to dust becuase regardless if it's just another wave or invest the last thing we need is another flooding threat down here.