ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

To me, convection is popping up on the southern side.

[Hammy]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

They are seeing down the road when conditions may be better,many systems like Katrina did not necessarily look good
Before they developed.

2005's pressures were lower across the Atlantic than they are at the moment, and the instability was significantly higher than this year, so it already had an advantage already--not to mention we're still in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

[abajan]

A few minutes ago, when I checked the infrared satellite imagery, I thought that 99L was a goner for sure. Then I checked the last visibles of the day and saw that the circulation was still very much alive:



Should be interesting to see how much convection builds tonight.

[Bocadude85]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

I am not sure what the folks at the NHC are seeing but obviously they are seeing improved conditions ahead or they would not have increased development chances.

[centuryv58]

This seems to be weakening even further today if anything, the rotation is not quite as defined as yesterday (the westerly inflow appears to be weakening) and it's almost completely void of convection. Given the subsiding air I'm genuinely not sure what the models that develop this are seeing.

They are seeing down the road when conditions may be better,many systems like Katrina did not necessarily look good
Before they developed.

2005's pressures were lower across the Atlantic than they are at the moment, and the instability was significantly higher than this year, so it already had an advantage already--not to mention we're still in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

How much is that bet worth??

[JaxGator]

They are seeing down the road when conditions may be better,many systems like Katrina did not necessarily look good
Before they developed.

2005's pressures were lower across the Atlantic than they are at the moment, and the instability was significantly higher than this year, so it already had an advantage already--not to mention we're still in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

How much is that bet worth??

Have there been times where storms can survive and thrive without the MJO?

[srainhoutx]

Recently Hurricane Earl.

[JaxGator]

:uarrow:

Recently Hurricane Earl.

\
Thought so. Thanks.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

A few minutes ago, when I checked the infrared satellite imagery, I thought that 99L was a goner for sure. Then I checked the last visibles of the day and saw that the circulation was still very much alive:

http://i.imgur.com/21Ccn2N.gif

Should be interesting to see how much convection builds tonight.

this might have already been observed but that band of wave above the northern bands of 99 seem interesting to me if that combines with 99 should make for a large sized storm if it gets its act together

[SeGaBob]

Any guesses for the 8pm TWO? I'm going with chances stay the same.

[Bocadude85]

Any guesses for the 8pm TWO? I'm going with chances stay the same.

I would agree that it will probably stay the same. 2am update is when I would think they start lowering development chances.

[Nimbus]

WXman57 said it could track from Lake Charles to Bermuda and the models have followed suit since.
Even if it stays just a dry wave with storm relative vorticity the center is too far north to go inland over South America. A better question might be will the track stay south of Jamaica?

[Kazmit]

Any guesses for the 8pm TWO? I'm going with chances stay the same.

I would agree that it will probably stay the same. 2am update is when I would think they start lowering development chances.

I don't think they'll lower the chances at all. This seems to have a decent chance to develop, and the NHC wouldn't raise the chances in the first place if it wasn't for this.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. The associated shower activity remains disorganized, and
any development of this system during the next couple of days should
be slow to occur due to its large size and proximity to dry air.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for
development beyond a couple of days, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[floridasun78]

so that 3pm est

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/767138723913994240

[abajan]

so that 3pm est

Nope. 1500Z is short for 1500 Zulu (UTC - Universal Standard Time) which is 3:00 PM in Greenwich, UK. So, that's 11:00 AM EST.

[tolakram]

live ir

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=15&lon=-28&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=600&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=5

[gatorcane]

Popcorn convection starting to pop including around center of broad low (around 14N, 41W) saved loop:

[Hammy]

Doesn't appear to have the westerly low-level inflow to the south that was present the last few days so that's likely why the models turned around and dropped development. Unfortunately ASCAT seems to have gone around it.