2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/766405356142624768





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[Caneman12]

Say hello to a superstorm named GAston
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.png

[Siker]

Say hello to a superstorm named GAston
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.png

Think that would actually be called Gastermine .

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Say hello to a superstorm named GAston
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.png

Frightening , thank goodness it is ultra long range.

[Hammy]

GEM run is interesting (while seemingly unrealistic) in slingshotting the wave behind 99L up and around it--sometimes I think the model thinks the Atlantic is the W Pacific.

[LarryWx]

GEM run is interesting (while seemingly unrealistic) in slingshotting the wave behind 99L up and around it--sometimes I think the model thinks the Atlantic is the W Pacific.

The system that the 0Z CMC is slingshotting around 99L way back into the Bahamas is actually Fiona! The CMC doesn't seem to want to either recurve Fiona or kill it. This, of course, is essentially just super-entertainment.

[stormwise]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/766732000652734465

[Steve]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/766732000652734465

GFS shows 3 Cape Verde systems following the wave behind 99l which it develops prior to 99l. 99l doesn't really form until South Florida and the Keys and then intensifies all the way to landfall in and around Morgan City. The wave behind it develops first and recurves though intensifies in the Central Atlantic. The one behind it also looks like a recurve as the 2 behind it are developing at the end of the run. I'm not buying any of it per se, but the idea is that we would get possibly 6 Cape Verde systems including Fiona over the next 16 days. 4 is probably a safer bet, but if it verifies, we would be on the K storm with this burst. If it does verify, I still think we would get 3-4 more named storms through October, so we could get to the N or O system.

[chaser1]

Along with the ramp up in overall activity here in the Atlantic basin, big factors whether the CONUS will be impacted will naturally come down to steering and the timing and location of tropical genesis.

Until there is an actual developed storm that the global models have better latched onto, is my belief that all of the models are less consistant in their forecast runs than they used to be. The models can simply be tools used toward refining forecasts, but far less accurately toward forecasting tropical development in general. Its in that vein that I think the Global "tea-leaves" lead me to guess that the CONUS may well have 2 hurricane landfalls between now and September 5.

As a Poll based on your translating the Global Model "Tea-Leaves" - How many named T.S. (or stronger) tropical cyclones do YOU think will make U.S. landfall between now and Sept. 5?
__Zero
__1
__2
__3 or more?

[Steve]

Really, really hard to say, but I'd go with 1, then 0, then 2, then 3

[chaser1]

I just have a suspicion that the U.S. will receive at least 2 landfalls during this period. I'm sticking with my thought that 99L will develop and do so near or north of P.R. and then continue to track WNW into Fla. and on to the N. Gulf., and also sensing that the pouch behind 99L will not gain as much latitude as the EURO (and NHC) are anticipating. Furthermore, I'm not convinced that we've seen the last of Fiona and that there might be a chance that during a period of weakening to an open wave, it might trek more westward and redevelop under a future building mid level high over and east of the southeast CONUS. I'm just not sure i'm buying into as much of a weakness in the mid-Atlantic nor that we'll see any Fall-like fronts drop across the New England area during the upcoming 1 to 2 weeks.

We'll see....

[Steve]

All plausible. Earlier in the week it looked like the immediately trailing wave behind 99l pinwheeled around the eastern side up and over. Somebody was speculating why on the 99l model thread. I never looked that hard into it but presumably it was the eastern periphery (possible mid level ridge feature?) of steering for 99L. But if the trailing wave hooks off more wnw or nw, I'd assume the feature behind it would probably trend more west with ridging building back over top. It's still going to be late August or early September at that point, so one or two recurves won't or shouldn't telegraph everything just yet.

However, almost all 3 current wpac systems are sort of recurving over or east of Japan which is usually a sign of troughs near the east coast. Gradual recurves can telegraph weaker steering currents or a possible stall 7-10 days if anything is there. If ridging builds back in over Japan in the next 3-5 days, any troughiness on the US east coast would be transient. Like you said, we will see.

[chaser1]

All plausible. Earlier in the week it looked like the immediately trailing wave behind 99l pinwheeled around the eastern side up and over. Somebody was speculating why on the 99l model thread. I never looked that hard into it but presumably it was the eastern periphery (possible mid level ridge feature?) of steering for 99L. But if the trailing wave hooks off more wnw or nw, I'd assume the feature behind it would probably trend more west with ridging building back over top. It's still going to be late August or early September at that point, so one or two recurves won't or shouldn't telegraph everything just yet.

However, almost all 3 current wpac systems are sort of recurving over or east of Japan which is usually a sign of troughs near the east coast. Gradual recurves can telegraph weaker steering currents or a possible stall 7-10 days if anything is there. If ridging builds back in over Japan in the next 3-5 days, any troughiness on the US east coast would be transient. Like you said, we will see.

Very interesting. I'm fascinated by the multiple teleconnections that do exist; some greater - some lessor than others of course. I've never really looked at or considered the teleconnection with the ridging over Japan however. Something worth looking into for sure.

[Steve]

That's classic Bastardi. He taught everyone that back in the early 2000's. Recurves east of Japan teleconnect with troughs near the us east coast 7-10 days later, whereas west moving systems into the Philipines/Vietnam/China usually shows ridging off/Near the US East Coast 7-10 days later. That's one of many. He always said it was discovered by mets working for the US military during WWII. It's not foolproof but it's pretty accurate.

[Alyono]

most likely, ZERO US hurricane landfalls before sept 5

[Steve]

Hopefully, that's for sure.

[blp]

most likely, ZERO US hurricane landfalls before sept 5

Looking at the CFS it looks longer than that. I think we might need to wait until October for something in the W. Carribean to be US threat. I keep seeing weakness in the ridge on the CFS in the usual place over Bermuda. It just keeps producing low after low. I still think the major issue with this pattern relates to the abnormally high SST's in the mid lattitudes especially off US East Coast that allows for these lows to develop.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Along with the ramp up in overall activity here in the Atlantic basin, big factors whether the CONUS will be impacted will naturally come down to steering and the timing and location of tropical genesis.

Until there is an actual developed storm that the global models have better latched onto, is my belief that all of the models are less consistant in their forecast runs than they used to be. The models can simply be tools used toward refining forecasts, but far less accurately toward forecasting tropical development in general. Its in that vein that I think the Global "tea-leaves" lead me to guess that the CONUS may well have 2 hurricane landfalls between now and September 5.

As a Poll based on your translating the Global Model "Tea-Leaves" - How many named T.S. (or stronger) tropical cyclones do YOU think will make U.S. landfall between now and Sept. 5?
__Zero
__1
__2
__3 or more?

I vote zero. 99L isn't going to develop, and anything that forms off of Africa, more often than not, tends to go north into the central Atlantic with a very small number of exceptions.

[stormwise]

most likely, ZERO US hurricane landfalls before sept 5

That is a good thing, you don't need any hurricanes at all barreling into populated areas.