ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Doesn't appear to have the westerly low-level inflow to the south that was present the last few days so that's likely why the models turned around and dropped development. Unfortunately ASCAT seems to have gone around it.

nhc still see this becoming ts

[blp]

Popcorn convection starting to pop including around center of broad low (around 14N, 41W) saved loop:

[]https://s13.postimg.org/80fnyyn9j/avn_lalo_animated.gif[/img]

That is a good sign the environment is moistening up some further north. I think it had a rough day today trying to fully detach from ITCZ.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/767176345268936706

[gatorcane]

Rainbow view of popcorn and updated loop. This popcorn we are seeing is certainly a good sign as far as development possibilities downstream. Remember how void it was of convection near the center of the broad low earlier.

[GeneratorPower]

99L popcorn getting close to Fiona.

[SouthDadeFish]

Something to keep in mind are the sea surface temperatures. As 99L progresses westward, sea surface temperatures continue to increase. This will result in a more unstable lower troposphere. I think once the wave reaches 45-50W (approximately where the 28C isotherm is), we will see more persistent popcorn convection.



SST's from NOAA AOML: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[Blown Away]

Rainbow view of popcorn and updated loop. This popcorn we are seeing is certainly a good sign as far as development possibilities downstream. Remember how void it was of convection near the center of the broad low earlier.

Wow, didn't realize how close Fiona was, how can 99L get going that close to Fiona??

[LarryWx]

Rainbow view of popcorn and updated loop. This popcorn we are seeing is certainly a good sign as far as development possibilities downstream. Remember how void it was of convection near the center of the broad low earlier.

Wow, didn't realize how close Fiona was, how can 99L get going that close to Fiona??

I think that 99L's center is still down near 12N. So, the center may not be as close to Fiona as you think.

[Caneman12]

Rainbow view of popcorn and updated loop. This popcorn we are seeing is certainly a good sign as far as development possibilities downstream. Remember how void it was of convection near the center of the broad low earlier.

Wow, didn't realize how close Fiona was, how can 99L get going that close to Fiona??

I think that 99L's center is still down near 12N. So, the center may not be as close to Fiona as you think.

it is actually extremely hard for me to find the center does anyone know where the true LLC is ? Because sometimes larger systems could have multiple vorticys

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like a rough center of circulation is about 12.5 and 40 .Just an estimation looking at the shortwave satellite.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like a rough center of circulation is about 12.5 and 40 .Just an estimation looking at the shortwave satellite.

Looks to me to be around 13.5/40.5

[floridasun78]

Looks like a rough center of circulation is about 12.5 and 40 .Just an estimation looking at the shortwave satellite.

Looks to me to be around 13.5/40.5

this show you were weak center at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[SFLcane]

We'll see what tommorow brings..

[SeGaBob]

Up to 30% in the next 48 hours

[AtlanticWind]

2AM outlook up to 30 percent and 60 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Satellite images
indicate that the circulation of this disturbance is gradually
becoming better defined and associated shower activity is beginning
to increase near the center. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form within the next few days while the system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[AtlanticWind]

hurricane center says conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. Interesting wording

[Hammy]

hurricane center says conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. Interesting wording

Probably waiting for more of a solid trend (rather than half a day) of models not developing it before indicating otherwise.

[AtlanticWind]

hurricane center says conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. Interesting wording

Probably waiting for more of a solid trend (rather than half a day) of models not developing it before indicating otherwise.

I think they look a lot at the intensity models a little more than the globals which are not always that accurate on intensity.

[USTropics]

99L with a decent pulse of convection this morning. Up in the left is Fiona's naked swirl after her top blew off: