ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Bocadude85]

I think the Gfs has it right this time... A recurve a few hundred miles off of Florida makes sense. The other models will pick up that idea I bet.

Classic windshield wiper effect. The models shift west and then east and then back west again. Look at the hurricane Earl model thread. Models had Earl going to Texas at one point before zooning in on Belize about 120 hours out.

[Kazmit]

Latest GFS shows a recurve east of the Bahamas. Seems acceptable to me.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: EURO still shows very pronounced ridging, so the GFS idea of developing a trough through the ridge, well I will leave it for you all to debate it.

Through day 10 both the GFS and Euro are fairly close, the both show the ridge across the eastern US, through day 7 they both have in similar position, days 7-10 the Euro has is a bit closer centered over the east coast while the GFS has it over the TN valley, but since the Euro doesn't go past 10 days we don't know if it agrees with the GFS of developing a large trough across the eastern US in the 10-14 day range, so there's nothing to debate on

There is a trough in the ECM Ensemble 500mb Anom. beginning at 288hr setting up over the Eastern Seaboard.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: EURO still shows very pronounced ridging, so the GFS idea of developing a trough through the ridge, well I will leave it for you all to debate it.

Through day 10 both the GFS and Euro are fairly close, the both show the ridge across the eastern US, through day 7 they both have in similar position, days 7-10 the Euro has is a bit closer centered over the east coast while the GFS has it over the TN valley, but since the Euro doesn't go past 10 days we don't know if it agrees with the GFS of developing a large trough across the eastern US in the 10-14 day range, so there's nothing to debate on

What I mean NDG is that the debate is not if the trough will materialize. The debate is in the 10 day range specifically and how the pattern will be by Sept 1. I am not looking for past the 7-10 day period. See, I spoke yesterday of paying attention to any subtleties. The trough indeed may develop, but inside of just the next 7-10 days, any subtle changes with the pattern can make huge differences, either way. So, either the EURO will be more correct in showing a strong ridge, or GFS will bring in a trough sooner than anticipated.

[Kazmit]

12z

[blp]

I see several models going with development in the Bahamas and moving slowly while getting trapped for a few days under a ridge. I see this now on the 00z Ukmet and 06z GFS. I would not be surprised to see a resurgence in the models today for development in the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with your assessment blp.

[gatorcane]

06z GFS shows a rapidly developing system just east of Bahamas around 192 hours and beyond so long-range. It moves west towards Florida before getting shunted to the northeast way out in the long-range. Who knows if the trough will be there that far out to abruptly turn it away from Florida. Models suggesting Bahamas area still the area to watch for possible development.l out of 99l.

[blp]

Looking at Euro vortcity for W. Atlantic shows interesting scenario with Fiona and 99l merging in the Bahamas and the area getting caught under a ridge. I think we may get something developing on the next Euro run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 100&fh=216

[northjaxpro]

06z GFS shows a rapidly developing system just east of Bahamas around 192 hours and beyond so long-range. It moves west towards Florida before getting shunted to the northeast way out in the long-range. Who knows if the trough will be there that far out to abruptly turn it away from Florida.

This is why I mentioned above how things will be just within the. next 10 day range. Will the EURO be close to correct in showing the ridge being rather strong by the end of day 10 from now, or will the GFS show the trough beginning to dig on by September 1? That is what I am looking at carefully.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS has what looks to be the most disorganized and weakest vorticity feature over the islands we have seen yet. I think it's about time to stick a fork in 99L.

[tolakram]

12z GFS has what looks to be the most disorganized and weakest vorticity feature over the islands we have seen yet. I think it's about time to stick a fork in 99L.

Can't do that until the wave is inland or out to sea. if the call for an in close season is correct this is the exact kind of thing we need to watch for. One of those years where the most warning we get might be 5 days or less.

[AxaltaRacing24]

12z GFS has what looks to be the most disorganized and weakest vorticity feature over the islands we have seen yet. I think it's about time to stick a fork in 99L.

Can't do that until the wave is inland or out to see. if the call for an in close season is correct this is the exact kind of thing we need to watch for. One of those years where the most warning we get might be 5 days or less.

The time to stick the fork in it is when it is near land and doesn't develop. The jury is still out.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS has what looks to be the most disorganized and weakest vorticity feature over the islands we have seen yet. I think it's about time to stick a fork in 99L.

Can't do that until the wave is inland or out to see. if the call for an in close season is correct this is the exact kind of thing we need to watch for. One of those years where the most warning we get might be 5 days or less.

You're right development is still possible especially after 5 days. At 132 hrs looks like vorticity is becoming better defined in the SE Bahamas. Have to hand it to the Euro for advertising caution to the very aggressive GFS runs from Friday.

[LarryWx]

IF the 12Z GFS were to develop 99L from this point on (now at hour 150), it would be more likely to go into FL and/or the GOM this time as compared to the 6Z GFS because it is further south and Fiona remnant is further away to the NE. Let's see what happens.

[PTrackerLA]

IF the 12Z GFS were to develop 99L from this point on (now at hour 150), it will be more likely to go into FL and/or the GOM this time as compared to the 6Z GFS because it is further south and Fiona remnant is further away to the NE. Let's see what happens.

Also interesting that 90L keeps charging West in this run as a powerful hurricane.

[Blown Away]

IF the 12Z GFS were to develop 99L from this point on (now at hour 150), it will be more likely to go into FL and/or the GOM this time as compared to the 6Z GFS because it is further south and Fiona remnant is further away to the NE. Let's see what happens.

Yep, 12z is @100 miles SW from 06z, closer to SFL/still weak, and 90L is also weaker and farther SW at @156 hours...

[Blown Away]

12z GFS @192 Hours... 99L is farther SW closer to SFL and still weak, but MB are dropping slowly... 99L is now a major SW from 06z and ready to recurve...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a potential TD/weak TS threat to south Florida this run out to 198 hrs.

[LarryWx]

It looks like 99L very slowly comes to about 50 miles from SE FL but probably about to recurve.