ATL: HERMINE - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#861 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#862 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:50 pm

gatorcane wrote:surprised it even gets that far north with that huge ridge building over the Carolinas.

Next run should drop south.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#863 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:50 pm

12 Euro... 216 Hours... Moving WNW across FL Peninsula into NE GOM...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#864 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:51 pm

Good thing it is far out because the people in the Northern Gulf of Mexico do not need this.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#865 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:51 pm

Weatherbell euro maps have this exiting west Florida just below the big bend area, getting stronger as it traverses the state. Another wet sloppy TS for Florida?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#866 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:52 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#867 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:52 pm

Strong TS/minimal Hurricane @ 216hrs. south of Apalachicola, Florida.

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#868 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:52 pm

Ok ok ok just one run but I think it's time to pay a little closer attention.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#869 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:52 pm

Euro is a nice telleconnection with Kompasu to get close to FL and edge north slowly (at first). How far west does it get with the ridge building in, Pensacola?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#870 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:52 pm

tolakram wrote:Weatherbell euro maps have this exiting west Florida just below the big bend area, getting stronger as it traverses the state. Another wet sloppy TS for Florida?
ECMWF went from nothing to close to a cane in one run not a good trend. Hope it trends the opposite way in the GFS and ECMWF runs later today and tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#871 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:53 pm

While I'm still skeptical given how far out it is, someone here a few days ago said Erin 1995 as a possible track, if this plays out that seems to be a definite possibility.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#872 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:54 pm

Point being the EURO is now on board with development and with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas this year 99L now has my full attention. Just 1 run so we shall see folks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#873 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:56 pm

I keep saying this but you do NOT want to see a system this time of year being forced Westward over the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf under a strong ridge...

Just one run but it's the Euro and is somewhat eyebrow raising.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#874 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:57 pm

12z Euro... 240 Hours... 2nd FL landfall near Panama City... Heading W towards New Orleans likely as a TS...

Wow... That's an eye opening run from old reliable...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#875 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:57 pm

One run and we are out in never never land but Euro has this strengthening as it moves west / sw away from Florida. The tail end of these runs is always fun.

You know it's a strange year then the Euro hits New Orleans before the Canadian does.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#876 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:Point being the EURO is now on board with development and with that rocket fuel in the Bahamas this year 99L now has my full attention. Just 1 run so we shall see folks

Wow, almost as if patience pays off over angry rage cancelling huh :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#877 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:57 pm

This run of the Euro would be devastating after the flooding on the Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#878 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:58 pm

CMC wants to send folks in the ILM area packing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#879 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:58 pm

Weakening to 1003mb @ 240hrs. as it heads due west towards New Orleans.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#880 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:00 pm

Better oil up the Storm2k server... :D
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