ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Interesting turn of events in the models with 99L this afternoon. Timing will be the key in whether this goes OTS or gets trapped under that ridge and turns back West. Not looking so good for an OTS scenario as seen right now.

[wflamholtz]

Wow...Some of these EPS ensembles are interesting to say the least

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA with a west bend across Straits of Florida / Northern Cuba:

[Kingarabian]

I thought the UKMET office planned to keep the model for private use only?

[northjaxpro]

Well, again I am re-emphasizing that we are still 7-10 days from this possible event. I have been harping on if the EURO will be close to being on the money in showing a strong ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region by September 1. But the latest EURO runs from appear to be locking in. To having a very stout ridge in place. This is just the latest run, and again we have to remember that it is just one run. Things can change as we all aware of lin the tropics.

However, if the EURO in future runs continue to show strong ridging, then I have to say all interests in Florida west to possibly to Texas will really need to pay attention. to the developments of 99L.

POTENTIALLY, we may be looking at some very anxious times ahead with 99L. I am trying my best to not get ahead of myself here, But, no doubt the trend is beginning to get a bit concerning for the current time.

[gatorcane]

For completely 12Z NAVGEM with a similar track as the UKMET with a west turn near the Bahamas, animated GIF below:

[stormlover2013]

Thank you got it!!

[p1nheadlarry]

JMA showing ridging pushing 90L westward, could be a rough day for the Canadian maritimes if that ever came to fruition.

Well, again I am re-emphasizing that we are still 7-10 days from this possible event. I have been harping on if the EURO will be close to being on the money in showing a strong ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region by September 1. But the latest EURO runs from appear to be locking in. To having a very stout ridge in place. This is just the latest run, and again we have to remember that it is just one run. Things can change as we all aware of lin the tropics.

However, if the EURO in future runs continue to show strong ridging, then I have to say all interests in Florida west to possibly to Texas will really need to pay attention. to the developments of 99L.

POTENTIALLY, we may be looking at some very anxious times ahead with 99L. I am trying my best to not get ahead of myself here, But, no doubt the trend is beginning to get a bit concerning for the current time.

Position of the ridge could change too, JAX and Savannah could be harmed by that trend if it ever occurred.

[AutoPenalti]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

[Blown Away]

How many model runs will it take before the magic trap door appears again??

[TheAustinMan]

The http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ site mentioned in some posts here is a good page for UKMET graphics for the Atlantic (best one I know of), but I'd like to also point to two other links that y'all might find useful:

• http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt80.egrr..txt - this is a text output of the UKMET's tracks for active tropical cyclones and invests in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, with notes on the position and strength tendency of those storms
• http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtnt82.egrr..txt - this is very similar to the other link, but also provides pressures and wind speeds.

Those text outputs might be a bit jarring at first glance but it's fairly well formatted for easy interpretation.

[Blown Away]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

The best example is the 1935 Labor Day hurricane... It was a weak TS just E of the Bahamas and in @48 hours it was Cat 5 into Keys...

[p1nheadlarry]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

Satellite loop shows what looks to be a stalled front well to the west (this eventually picks it up once it headed towards the gulf coast). Light shear as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaxihQsMXjQ&t=14s

But from TS to hurricane, very quickly. ULL that sheared it initially abated, and the blocking high sent it westward. Within three days it was tearing apart South Dade.

I was only eleven months old, but Andrew has always fascinated me ever since I started getting into weather.

[Hammy]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

Andrew began steadily strengthening on the 21st, three days out from Florida, and the following day strengthened 65kt to 150kt in about 18 hours, which took it to about 12 hours before landfall and it was largely steady from there with fluctuations.

[rickybobby]

Well, again I am re-emphasizing that we are still 7-10 days from this possible event. I have been harping on if the EURO will be close to being on the money in showing a strong ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region by September 1. But the latest EURO runs from appear to be locking in. To having a very stout ridge in place. This is just the latest run, and again we have to remember that it is just one run. Things can change as we all aware of lin the tropics.

However, if the EURO in future runs continue to show strong ridging, then I have to say all interests in Florida west to possibly to Texas will really need to pay attention. to the developments of 99L.

POTENTIALLY, we may be looking at some very anxious times ahead with 99L. I am trying my best to not get ahead of myself here, But, no doubt the trend is beginning to get a bit concerning for the current time.

I agree. Yesterday they were saying it was going to rain for a few hours in Daytona and it never did. By Thursday we should have a good idea.

[Bocadude85]

It's crazy how this is playing out almost exactly as hurricane Earl did in regard to the models dropping development only to start showing it again.

[Emmett_Brown]

90L seems to be a big unknown ingredient for what happens with 99L... 90's strength will likely have some sort of affect on the path/strength of 99L.

[jason1912]

18z GFS initializing.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

Satellite loop shows what looks to be a stalled front well to the west (this eventually picks it up once it headed towards the gulf coast). Light shear as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaxihQsMXjQ&t=14s

But from TS to hurricane, very quickly. ULL that sheared it initially abated, and the blocking high sent it westward. Within three days it was tearing apart South Dade.

I was only eleven months old, but Andrew has always fascinated me ever since I started getting into weather.

I was in Homestead and Florida City 2 days after Andrew hit. I was there as part of a relief project to provide supplies and support. Unbelievable images that will be burned in my mind forever. Hope to never see anything like that ever again. When models start to show a strengthening storm moving west under a building ridge I get nervous.

SFT

[p1nheadlarry]

This is a question with regards to track history and intensity history. Anyone here maybe have an idea.

How fast did Andrew deepen and how far was it from Florida before it hit? What aspects were in play for this to occur?

The best example is the 1935 Labor Day hurricane... It was a weak TS just E of the Bahamas and in @48 hours it was Cat 5 into Keys...

There are a few storms I would love to have brought today's technology back in time to see. Labor Day is one of them. Hazel, Sea Islands, New England, and San Ciriaco are others.