ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#941 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:37 pm

So far I thin the 18z is slightly faster than the 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#942 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:40 pm

Blown Away wrote:How many model runs will it take before the magic trap door appears again?? :lol:


Lol Maybe now with 18z...open wave again. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#943 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:42 pm

Wait for it...remember that it doesn't really start cooking until it gets in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#944 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:43 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:How many model runs will it take before the magic trap door appears again?? :lol:


Lol Maybe now with 18z...open wave again. :double:


This run so far looks identical to the 12Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#945 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:44 pm

Does it look like 90L is moving more west than northwest like the last run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#946 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:46 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Does it look like 90L is moving more west than northwest like the last run?


So far 90L is further southeast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#947 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:47 pm

pgoss11 wrote:Does it look like 90L is moving more west than northwest like the last run?


The JMA hinted at that earlier. Basically paved a way for 90L to go west until it could finally move north, looked to put the maritimes into play. We'll have to let the run finish to see if it shows anything similar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#948 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:47 pm

18z looks weaker through 60 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#949 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:50 pm

18z GFS... 60 Hours... A bit more moisture than 12z...
Last edited by Blown Away on Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#950 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:51 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:Does it look like 90L is moving more west than northwest like the last run?


The JMA hinted at that earlier. Basically paved a way for 90L to go west until it could finally move north, looked to put the maritimes into play. We'll have to let the run finish to see if it shows anything similar.


Looks like it might be taking the turn at 66hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#951 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z looks weaker through 60 hours.


Looks very similar to the 12Z to me..only thing I've noticed is that the vort is a tad north of the 12Z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#952 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:54 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z looks weaker through 60 hours.


Looks very similar to the 12Z to me..only thing I've noticed is that the vort is a tad north of the 12Z


Agreed...and Fiona looks a tad further west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#953 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:55 pm

Identical here to 12z so far through 78hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#954 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:56 pm

18z GFS... 78 Hours... System appears slightly N of 12z... Still weak...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#955 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:56 pm

Look for it to start to ramp up between 90 to 120 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#956 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:57 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z looks weaker through 60 hours.


Looks very similar to the 12Z to me..only thing I've noticed is that the vort is a tad north of the 12Z


Agreed...and Fiona looks a tad further west.


Yea I noticed that, I am wondering if that will cause a weakness and alow 99L to get further north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#957 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:59 pm

I might be wrong but at 84 hours Fiona looks to get trapped under the ridge. Fiona's position here is very significant.
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#958 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:59 pm

Looks ever so slightly north. May be enough to avoid the shredder.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#959 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:01 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z GFS... 78 Hours... System appears slightly N of 12z... Still weak...


Not much to track through 130hrs on the 12z run till it begins to develop in Bahamas region.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#960 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:05 pm

Definitely further north at 102 and vort more defined.

Fiona much more SW than 12z.
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