ATL: HERMINE - Models

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SeGaBob

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1041 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:49 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...


I think it's because the Euro moves it inland faster so that trough doesn't make it in time like the slower Gfs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1042 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:50 pm

wflamholtz wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...

It's because the EURO is faster with 99L


Euro was way faster, it had 99L S of Alabama in GOM at 240... Hundreds of miles difference...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1043 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:50 pm

Close call for NC this run, as has been stated thought this is pure fantasy at this range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1044 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:52 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Bocadude85 wrote:Well what I take from all of this is that something will be in the Bahamas in the 8-10 day time frame. From there who knows what will happen..it is interesting that the Euro is so much further west then the GFS...

The Euro is also several days faster than the GFS. Now the question is what model is right?


My best guess would be something in between.. If the models behave the same way as they did with Earl in this time frame then I would expect a southwest shift with time. When the models with Earl first started showing development they had Earl hitting Texas or the NE Mexican coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1045 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:54 pm

The general agreement now is that 99L should remain weak for the next 5 or so days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1046 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:55 pm

Call BS on the trough picking this up, there's no way this trough came out of nowhere with 200+ Hrs of anticipation. Lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1047 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:58 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Call BS on the trough picking this up, there's no way this trough came out of nowhere with 200+ Hrs of anticipation. Lol.


In recent years, you can almost always expect a trough. Having a ridge force a storm west is key.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1048 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:59 pm

GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1049 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:01 pm

The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1050 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Looking at the 18Z GFS, It looks like a bit "stronger" and west Fiona erodes just enough of the ridge to force a more NW movement of 99l north of Hispaniola. The 12Z showed just enough of a ridge to keep 99L moving more WNW into the SE Bahamas, with little interaction with Fiona.

Fiona may play a key role in where 99L ends up as far as just how much latitude 99L gains before the more westerly turn.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1051 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:05 pm

NDG wrote:The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.


Initially, it was the GFS that had a ridge force 99L into SE USA, Florida, and the GOM in its respective runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1052 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:06 pm

I think we'll start seeing the development %'s eventually lowered down to or near zero for the short term but probably raised again as the time frame draws closer, probably mid-week, should the trend towards Bahamas development continue.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1053 Postby jason1912 » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:12 pm

Now we wait 4 hours for the 00z runs :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1054 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:The pattern has been for a anomalous ridging across the eastern US all month long, the models have not been handling the ridging that well in their medium to long range but the GFS is handling it the worst. As time gets closer the GFS will start trending towards the Euro of a stronger ridge across the eastern US in the 7-10 day range.


Initially, it was the GFS that had a ridge force 99L into SE USA, Florida, and the GOM in its respective runs.


In the 10-14 day range the GFS is always going throw out every possible solution out there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1055 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:45 pm

Why is ECMWF so much faster? Is it because of Fiona?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1056 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:48 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Why is ECMWF so much faster? Is it because of Fiona?


GFS wants to pull 99L northward, which would slow it down. But it does appear slower than the ECMWF even before then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1057 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:50 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.


The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1058 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:05 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.


The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.


It might have taken until mid-late August to get it right :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1059 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:05 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1060 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:11 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:GFS 18z is slower than the ECM with the Vort Max and further East and just erodes the ridge by 234hrs bringing a trough into the east to carry away 99L. The ECM has a 591dm ridge still in place from the Carolinas to TX at 216hrs.

I'd have to lay more trust toward the ECM at this point as far as keeping a ridge in place.


The ridging as been persistent and strong all season long to this point. I would lean toward the EURO cautiously.

I'm leaning towards the Euro as well, especially when the GFS likes to overdo the intensity of things.

Also there has been such persistent strong ridging/Bermuda High all summer that I can only recall just a handful of days where the afternoon thunderstorm activity has been focused on the East Coast of Florida and not the West Coast or inland.
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