ATLANTIC 98 INVEST 10 N 31 W.........
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dixiebreeze
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ATLANTIC 98 INVEST 10 N 31 W.........
Looks like we have a live one. T- # will probably be up next. The system is looking very healthy this afternoon.
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dixiebreeze
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cycloneye
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Yes dixie looks like a candidate for development but it has to surpass subsidence and some shear ahead and if it goes by those then Juan will form from there.
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WeatherEmperor
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vbhoutex
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Here is the invest page on it.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables
It islooking somewhat healthy, but it sure has a long way to go before I can really call it organized. The quikscat shows no hint of circulation to me ATT. It has a lot to overcome to go any further with its' development imo.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables
It islooking somewhat healthy, but it sure has a long way to go before I can really call it organized. The quikscat shows no hint of circulation to me ATT. It has a lot to overcome to go any further with its' development imo.
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GulfBreezer
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I wouldn't sweat too much over this one for now
Regarding potential US hits, I wouldn't worry too much about this invest anytime too soon based on climo going back to 1851. The best chance for this to hit the U.S. imo would be if it simply doesn't become a TD east of 50W. Why? Because since 1851, only ONE TD east of 50W and south of 20N that formed on 9/25 or later eventually made it to the U.S.:
Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC
So, based on the last 152 years, I would say that if this becomes a TD east of 50W, it will have only a small chance to hit the U.S. since tomorrow is already 9/25. However, if this makes it past 50W without becoming a TD and if it then becomes better organized just east of the Lesser Antilles in the 50-60W corridor, I feel that it may then need to be watched more closely by U.S. interests.
Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC
So, based on the last 152 years, I would say that if this becomes a TD east of 50W, it will have only a small chance to hit the U.S. since tomorrow is already 9/25. However, if this makes it past 50W without becoming a TD and if it then becomes better organized just east of the Lesser Antilles in the 50-60W corridor, I feel that it may then need to be watched more closely by U.S. interests.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Trader Ron
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Stormsfury
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Re: I wouldn't sweat too much over this one for now
LarryWx wrote:Regarding potential US hits, I wouldn't worry too much about this invest anytime too soon based on climo going back to 1851. The best chance for this to hit the U.S. imo would be if it simply doesn't become a TD east of 50W. Why? Because since 1851, only ONE TD east of 50W and south of 20N that formed on 9/25 or later eventually made it to the U.S.:
Storm #9 of 1893 which formed on 9/25 and hit SC
So, based on the last 152 years, I would say that if this becomes a TD east of 50W, it will have only a small chance to hit the U.S. since tomorrow is already 9/25. However, if this makes it past 50W without becoming a TD and if it then becomes better organized just east of the Lesser Antilles in the 50-60W corridor, I feel that it may then need to be watched more closely by U.S. interests.
1893 was sure an ugly year for South Carolina. 1893 had pretty much a neutral ENSO period with the SOI indecies slightly positive throughout the year with a couple of minor exceptions. But one big difference IMO (and I don't have the stats on this) though based on the amount of activity that year, there was probably a W QBO during the 1893 season, while this year it has been predominantly easterly. (If someone can furnish stats on QBO for 1893, please do so.)
Great Stats as always, LarryWx.
SF
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