ATL: HERMINE - Models

[northjaxpro]

Thanks AJC3. I was initially referencing Savanah and their record. But you made great references to Melbourne and Daytona Beach's records as well. Thanks again. It highlights greatly how ridging has been dominant this season.

[JaxGator]

 https://twitter.com/Wx_Geek/status/767514028113596416

Are they combining on that run?

[GeneratorPower]

Yes, combining.

[JaxGator]

Thanks AJC3. I was initially referencing Savanah and their record. But you made great references to Melbourne's record. Thanks again. It highlights greatly how ridging has been dominant this season.

To me it feels like 2004 deja vu. There should be more examples (like 2008 too).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't know what to think. Play it safe and going to wait for the overnight runs to complete but I'm leaning towards something in between the euro and gfs. Maybe the cmc might get it right for once.

Euro too strong of a ridge and gfs way too slow with system that seems to just sit and wait for a weakness to develop to pull it out.

[NDG]

Height anomalies for July, ridging was strongest along the southern US which makes sense because the Orlando area set an all hottest July ever and the eastern central coast of FL was drier than average, but so far this month ridging has taken strongest over the mid Atlantic into the eastern Great Lakes, and looks to continue through the rest of the month. Notice the much lower than average heights over the north central Atlantic the reason any storms that develop east of 50W have and could continue to gain latitude over the central Atlantic.

[JaxGator]

Yes, combining.

It looks looks 99L absorbs Fiona, making it stronger.

[GeneratorPower]

Katrina was a combo of a wave and an ex-TD. I think TD 10.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Katrina was a combo of a wave and an ex-TD. I think TD 10.

That she was.

[rickybobby]

Fox 35 just said it should stay off the coast of Florida and it looks like an open wave.

[SeGaBob]

Fox 35 just said it should stay off the coast of Florida and it looks like an open wave.

I'd ignore that for now.

[hurricanedude]

Ignore anything a week out

[Joe Snow]

This will be an interesting week ahead. two storms to track and another Invest coming. We might even get to see a Fujiyama effect. The GFS and the EURO will battle it out over who's right and who is wrong. Very cool stuff.

[stormhunter7]

I have always had a hard time seeing a system in the last 5-7 years go north of this islands and survive. Guess will see soon if 99L can?

[centuryv58]

Fox 35 just said it should stay off the coast of Florida and it looks like an open wave.

I would not rely too much on local weather personalities for any definitive information on these storms. You (usually) get better and more current information on Storm2K.

That is certainly true in my area of South Florida.

[NDG]

Fox 35 just said it should stay off the coast of Florida and it looks like an open wave.

Fox35 Tv Met on the weekends he's pretty bad when it comes to tropical systems, he was the one that had me fuming a couple of weeks ago when he was calling the gulf coast tropical low a "non tropical upper level low"

[floridasun78]

Fox 35 just said it should stay off the coast of Florida and it looks like an open wave.

I would not rely too much on local weather personalities for any definitive information on these storms. You (usually) get better and more current information on Storm2K.

That is certainly true in my area of South Florida.

true weatherman here in Miami like over hype tropical system specially ch 7

[floridasun78]

I have always had a hard time seeing a system in the last 5-7 years go north of this islands and survive. Guess will see soon if 99L can?

i want see this map show by friday i seen alot show south fl and models show weakness move it nw and north ne out to see or north Carolina

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.

[floridasun78]

i have question here any weather met even wx why models cannot pick up all dry air that been attacking tropical because you were seen models have 90l going be td by Sunday and ts by Monday put all dry air killing 90l of all storms so models not high tech to pick up mass of dry air ?

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS...Hour 54...vorticity seems to be further north and strung out, connecting to Fiona. Once again Fiona may be the key here.

Looks to be a tad faster as well.