ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Medtronic15]

Right now, firing UP......

[stormhunter7]

I think 99L passed pretty close to this buoy?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[drezee]

I think 99L passed pretty close to this buoy?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

Two hours of SSE TO SSW winds don't grow on trees at 14N in the deep tropics. There is something at the surface.

[SFLcane]

Most convection in days...

[AutoPenalti]

Most convection in days...

It looks like the west side is waning a bit. South side is starting to pull moisture in.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like some banding is getting going on the south side and I see no such waning of convection, in fact it seems to be growing and spreading

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AutoPenalti]

Amazing, you can literally see it wrapping around now.

[SeGaBob]

Looks decent now. (Relatively speaking) I bet it will get a bit further along every night before waning some in the day until it develops.

[StrongWind]

This now has some convection around the center, could it be possible this gets going before the lesser antilles?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I think it is definitely possible as globals do not always pick up on development right away.

If it strengthens earlier than expected (ie Antilles vs Bahamas) would one anticipate a more Northerly curving track?

[beoumont]

System kind of reminds me of several sharp easterly waves years ago that produced wind gusts in the Lesser Antilles above 60 mph as it passed through as a very sharp wave; then developed a couple of days later into substantial hurricanes.

[N2FSU]

Convection really ramped up overnight:

[NDG]

99L has come alive.

[USTropics]

An off topic question. Is the NRL site working as I have tried to get in but nothing.

It's working for me but loading a bit slow:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[cycloneye]

An off topic question. Is the NRL site working as I have tried to get in but nothing.

It's working for me but loading a bit slow:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Yes.Slow to navigate.

[Blown Away]

Nice convection this morning... Maybe NHC raises short term development percentages at 8??

[TheStormExpert]

Mid-Level Dry Air may be an issue still as per the HWRF.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 08N-19N
with axis near 47W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is a 1010 mb low near 14N47W associated with the
wave. Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment limit the
convection to scattered showers and tstms from 14N to 18N between
44W and 52W. Dry air near this system is expected to inhibit
significant development during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development late this
week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola and the
southeastern and central Bahamas.

[NDG]

This morning 99L still appears to have a broad almost closed off circulation.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ouragans]

Nice convection this morning... Maybe NHC raises short term development percentages at 8??

I think they will, and same for 5 days. This system has a nice circulation that maintained itself when there was no convection. 99L might even be classified before reaching the islands

[cycloneye]

Shower activity has increased a little over the past 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. Dry air near this system is expected to slow
development during the next couple of days days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola
and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent