ATL: HERMINE - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

One word ...........DRY AIR...........

[SFLcane]

this thing runs into a very large upper low according to the MU

Yea it's always something...Iam surely not on this hype bandwagon of intensification in Bahamas. I'll believe when I see it.

[NDG]

Looks like this run is going to be very similar to last night's 0z run, vorticity not as strong and mid level ridge not as strong.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS can't make up it's freaking mind.

[AutoPenalti]

One word ...........DRY AIR...........

It's funny because it's two words.

[AtlanticWind]

For some reason GFS does not like this system

[gatorcane]

Through 102 hours, looks quite a bit more west along northern coast of Cuba and weak

[Alyono]

convectionless at 102 hours

6Z NAVGEM may have been right

[WeatherEmperor]

The GFS can't make up it's freaking mind.

And its really frustrating too. Its not like we are talking 200+ hrs. This is 3-4 days out and it flip flops all over the place? Wow

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS can't make up it's freaking mind.

And its really frustrating too. Its not like we are talking 200+ hrs. This is 3-4 days out and it flip flops all over the place? Wow

Hopefully recon gets in there and resolves these back and forth issues.

[chaser1]

Through 84 hours, GFS is slightly to the left and has a slightly weaker 850mb vort.

GFS is seeing weaker due to indigestion lol; not weaker due to dry air.... "more left" = "more land" LOL

[SFLcane]

convectionless at 102 hours

6Z NAVGEM may have been right

Ok now based on NAVGEM? This is horrid model.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Just not understanding what is keeping it weak on the GFS run (usually I am conservative). No wind shear, not much land interaction, and dry air is there but not back breaking. Weird.

[gatorcane]

GFS now develops an upper-low over the NW Bahamas which impinges shear on the system, hence why it has kept it weak so far through 5 days.

[p1nheadlarry]

The GFS can't make up it's freaking mind.

And its really frustrating too. Its not like we are talking 200+ hrs. This is 3-4 days out and it flip flops all over the place? Wow

Hopefully recon gets in there and resolves these back and forth issues.

Fresh data to feed the models, we need it for sanity's sake

[hurricanetrack]

Not seeing an upper level low at 96 hours for example. Very light 200 mb winds all throughout the Bahamas and vicinity.

[Alyono]

Just not understanding what is keeping it weak on the GFS run (usually I am conservative). No wind shear, not much land interaction, and dry air is there but not back breaking. Weird.

no shear? It is STRONG shear from a MASSIVE upper low

[SFLcane]

Land, upper lows, shear, dry air...lol I think I might check in when it's north of the islands.

[Alyono]

The upper low shows up very well on the simulated IR

[Alyono]

for a US threat, you may need to look out toward Hawaii next week