ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC track GIF into Florida:

[chaser1]

This might be a case where the "best model" right now....
Is NOT a model, but rather the satellite. As Alonyo just alluded, 99L has a large envelope. Convection is on the increase. SST's are a tad warmer. If there is not some significant decrease during Dmin., than one should assume that the system is becoming at least a little more organized. Sure, we can wait for bouy, ships report, or recon data to confirm but ASSUMING that 99L does becoming better organized and a bit deeper of a system - then chances are it'll begin to gain a little bit of latitude as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Whether this occurs and to what extent, will likely have a significant impact on modeling at that time and certainly impacts the GFS track and strength perameters. The GFS is not at all inconsistant; People need to keep in mind that those pretty maps contain land mines called, well... land. Run to run variations involving as little as 30-60 miles may play a larger role for a weak disorganized system treking over land than one more organized and possibly remaining over water. It may well be that dry air has and could continue to inhibit development however a more vertically stacked system that might move on a more WNW trajectory could just as suddenly appear to be that much stronger from one model run to the next.

[WeatherEmperor]

What does the 12Z Navgem (Nogaps) show??

[SFLcane]

12z UKMET strongest yet and a bit more SW.

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 23.3N 72.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2016 96 23.3N 72.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 27.08.2016 108 24.5N 73.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 27.08.2016 120 25.6N 74.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 28.08.2016 132 26.4N 75.9W 1002 36
1200UTC 28.08.2016 144 26.6N 78.3W 996 43

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is also turning it W to WNW in the Bahamas and moving it so SLOWLY....looks to be towards Southern Florida but weak out at almost 200 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

This might be a case where the "best model" right now....
Is NOT a model, but rather the satellite. As Alonyo just alluded, 99L has a large envelope. Convection is on the increase. SST's are a tad warmer. If there is not some significant decrease during Dmin., than one should assume that the system is becoming at least a little more organized. Sure, we can wait for bouy, ships report, or recon data to confirm but ASSUMING that 99L does becoming better organized and a bit deeper of a system - then chances are it'll begin to gain a little bit of latitude as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Whether this occurs and to what extent, will likely have a significant impact on modeling at that time and certainly impacts the GFS track and strength perameters. The GFS is not at all inconsistant; People need to keep in mind that those pretty maps contain land mines called, well... land. Run to run variations involving as little as 30-60 miles may play a larger role for a weak disorganized system treking over land than one more organized and possibly remaining over water. It may well be that dry air has and could continue to inhibit development however a more vertically stacked system that might move on a more WNW trajectory could just as suddenly appear to be that much stronger from one model run to the next.

This is a very good point. I'm not sure the models are properly initializing the system given it's current appearance. With that said, we all know how appearances can be deceiving. It wouldn't be the first time something had an excellent satellite presentation to it only to be declared an open wave by recon. I'm hoping they get recon in there sooner than later, especially if it continues to present like it is right now on satellite. Any info on what the Hunter's task outlet is right now?

SFT

[gatorcane]

Go back and check, I think the GFS showed a weak 1008-1011 MB low or so into Belize for Earl about this far out but that didn't come close to verifying as we saw. Find it hard to believe this thing wouldn't intensify more in the Bahamas ala the UKMET, CMC, ECMWF.

[Siker]

Canadian ends up turning into the Big Bend once it reaches the Gulf:

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS is also turning it W to WNW in the Bahamas and moving it so SLOWLY....looks to be towards Southern Florida but weak out at almost 200 hours.

GFS back to showing no development it would appear. The GFS has been all over the place in regards to intensity..

[stormlover2013]

all the models have lol crazyyyyyyyyyy stuff

[ConvergenceZone]

Dry air, Shear, Upper Level Lows. Come on people. We should have learned by now. Those three inhibitors rule the Atlantic and seem like they have for a very long time. Way different than it used to be! Awesome news for hurricane disaster issues, but boring for us who love watching development, but yea I know, we should be grateful.

[Weatherboy1]

ukmet takes quick turn left lol

Pointed right at my house now - good times! Lol. Fortunately we are still far enough out that anything can still happen

[tarheelprogrammer]

Dead on the GFS. In my opinion I expect this to form in the leeward islands.

[Blown Away]

Is 99L more developed now than what is being shown on the modeling?

[PTrackerLA]

LOL this is too much. If it weren't for the MIMIC TPW signature I'd quickly write this thing off but it's too impressive to ignore. I have a feeling the reason why GFS is struggling is because the envelope is so large. Or this simply won't ever develop at all. As always, time will tell!

[Siker]

UKMET with extensive 594dm heights to the north:

[SouthFLTropics]

LOL this is too much. If it weren't for the MIMIC TPW signature I'd quickly write this thing off but it's too impressive to ignore. I have a feeling the reason why GFS is struggling is because the envelope is so large. Or this simply won't ever develop at all. As always, time will tell!

Models are one thing but real time information and presentation is another. MIMIC TPW is showing a very vigorous circulation. That is real time data that can't be ignored. Anything with that type of circulation in the Western Atlantic in August will have my complete attention until it gets to the North and East of me. Heck, even that isn't always a guarantee (Jeanne 2005).

[Dean4Storms]

I would have to say at this point chances of 99L developing into a TC in the Bahamas is 70%. I am not basing that on any one model or model run but overall and climatology with an impressive TW by late Aug. reaching the Bahamas.

[drezee]

N and Nnw winds st closest buoy

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[SFLcane]

Nogaps- nada but who cares