ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Final frame of HWRF at hour 126 shows it finally gets close to hurricane status around 27N and 74W. Moving very slowly and erratic. Hard to pick up on the final motion but looks to be off to the NW.

SFT

[AdamFirst]

GEM reminds me of Hurricane Erin from 1995 that went into Indian River County. Long track wave that avoided development until the Bahamas and impacted the east coast of Florida as a moderate category 1 (85 MPH).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro seems much faster and much further NW than the 00z run at 48 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEM reminds me of Hurricane Erin from 1995 that went into Indian River County. Long track wave that avoided development until the Bahamas and impacted the east coast of Florida as a moderate category 1 (85 MPH).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Someone else said Erin as well...I agree, this could be a very good comparison.

[Blown Away]

Euro seems much faster and much further NW than the 00z run at 48 hours.

Weaker also...

[p1nheadlarry]

UKMET with extensive 594dm heights to the north:

East winds would be going into NFL on that run, right?

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro seems much faster and much further NW than the 00z run at 48 hours.

Weaker also...

Think we are seeing a bigger impact from Fiona due to the fast speed as well as a sooner impact with the islands. Give it till about 84 to 100 hours and let's see what materializes.

[Bocadude85]

Euro seems much faster and much further NW than the 00z run at 48 hours.

Looks very similar to the 0Z at 48 hours to me, if your using that tab on tropicaltidbits to toggle between the last run it takes you to yesterday's 12Z run not the OZ

[Hammy]

My money's on no development with this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Something to note...Look how much further south 90L is on the 12z at 48 hours versus the 00z.

[Blown Away]

90L a few degrees S on the run compared to previous...

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro seems much faster and much further NW than the 00z run at 48 hours.

Looks very similar to the 0Z at 48 hours to me, if your using that tab on tropicaltidbits to toggle between the last run it takes you to yesterday's 12Z run not the OZ

Thanks for pointing that out Boca...I didn't notice that before.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing is definitely still in place...The ridge is camped out across the eastern seaboard. The heat continues!!!

[Bocadude85]

96 hours the 12Z Euro is slightly southwest of the 0Z

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with a stronger ridge over the Carolinas this run through 96 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z Euro with a stronger ridge over the Carolinas this run

The ridge is a beast...It doesn't want to budge. I think we may be in for a late fall the way things are looking. It may take a good artic blast out of Canada to get that ridge to retreat.

[Blown Away]

12Z Euro with a stronger ridge over the Carolinas this run through 96 hours

Likely a TW moving over Florida... Just my guess..

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro now caving to the GFS?

[NDG]

We starting to see some consistency with the Euro through the net 96 hrs.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 120 Hours, SW of 00z... Low appears closed in SE Bahamas... Moving WNW, maybe a TD...