CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical
EP, 98, 2016082112, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1067W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082118, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1076W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082200, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1084W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082206, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1092W, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082212, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1101W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
EP, 98, 2016082118, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1076W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082200, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1084W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082206, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1092W, 15, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 98, 2016082212, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1101W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Is this the long tracking system on the latest Euro? It is very far south so I like it's odds, ACE producer if it is.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become slightly better organized
today. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week as the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become slightly better organized
today. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week as the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms location about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated
with an area of low pressure. This activity remains poorly
organized, but environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the low moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated
with an area of low pressure. This activity remains poorly
organized, but environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the low moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Way too bullish compared to the GFS/ECMWF
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 41 49 60 73 86 94 99
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 11 5 5 5 8 11 6 5 6 7 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 43 58 79 72 76 57 60 74 82 45 97 57 78
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 152 152 153 154 151 149 147 147 149 150
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 71 72 73 74 77 79 75 73 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 13 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 7 7 7 10 21 25 28 35 42 44 38
200 MB DIV 12 22 35 34 43 42 57 53 46 44 47 76 59
700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 1519 1608 1711 1822 1945 2215 2427 2400 2260 2187 2141 2065 1943
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.1 125.0 128.6 131.5 133.5 134.8 135.4 135.7 136.3 137.2
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 17 12 8 4 3 2 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 24 22 22 19 42 28 24 32 33 31 30 32 42
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 33. 42. 50. 56. 61. 63. 62.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 117.9
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 41 49 60 73 86 94 99
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 11 5 5 5 8 11 6 5 6 7 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 43 58 79 72 76 57 60 74 82 45 97 57 78
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 152 152 153 154 151 149 147 147 149 150
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 71 72 73 74 77 79 75 73 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 13 14 14
850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 7 7 7 10 21 25 28 35 42 44 38
200 MB DIV 12 22 35 34 43 42 57 53 46 44 47 76 59
700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 1519 1608 1711 1822 1945 2215 2427 2400 2260 2187 2141 2065 1943
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.7
LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.1 125.0 128.6 131.5 133.5 134.8 135.4 135.7 136.3 137.2
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 17 12 8 4 3 2 5 6
HEAT CONTENT 24 22 22 19 42 28 24 32 33 31 30 32 42
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 33. 42. 50. 56. 61. 63. 62.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 117.9
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with another area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are also showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by this weekend while the low moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent]
pressure located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula are also showing signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by this weekend while the low moves westward or west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent]
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 24, 2016 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
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- Yellow Evan
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 68 74 77 78 80 80
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 68 74 77 78 80 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 52 61 69 76 83 87
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 10 10 17 8 5 4 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -6 -8 -7 -8 -7
SHEAR DIR 11 32 41 43 49 21 21 20 30 26 357 123 117
SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.4 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 154 154 153 152 150 151 153 152 139 136
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 71 72 76 77 82 81 79 73 65 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 14 15
850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 12 13 18 28 21 21 28 32 25 35 36
200 MB DIV 31 40 51 58 59 107 63 76 54 100 73 89 69
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 -2 -4 0 0
LAND (KM) 1969 2089 2229 2384 2507 2349 2190 2117 2083 2018 1834 1568 1294
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.3 14.9 16.5 17.5
LONG(DEG W) 124.5 126.5 128.4 130.2 131.8 134.4 136.0 136.7 136.8 137.0 138.2 140.3 142.7
STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 17 15 10 5 2 3 7 12 13 12
HEAT CONTENT 35 28 23 21 20 32 32 32 31 31 37 17 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 34. 43. 49. 52. 53. 55. 55.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 124.5
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.9% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.8% 21.8% 20.0% 5.7% 2.8% 24.1% 24.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 7.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1%
Consensus: 1.6% 19.7% 14.4% 2.0% 1.0% 8.2% 8.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
GFS has this making landfall in 8 days as a strong Cat.2...
Euro has this close to Hawaii as a Cat.3.
Euro has this close to Hawaii as a Cat.3.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Alyono wrote:This may be the real US threat
Becoming the norm..
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1650
miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1650
miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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- Steve820
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
This really seems like a threat for Hawaii. It could possibly strike them, like Darby did earlier this year. Madeline is coming and I hope it won't be too destructive for Hawaii in the long run.
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
26/0000 UTC 11.8N 133.5W T1.5/1.5 98E -- East Pacific
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 65 70 73 71 69 64 61
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 65 70 73 71 69 64 61
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 52 60 64 64 62 58 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 2 4 7 10 14 17 21 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 25 36 53 17 30 350 152 193 176 189 203 214 222
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 150 146 139 132 132 131 124 121 121
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 65 61 60 57 55 51 48 44 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 14 15 16 15 16 15 16
850 MB ENV VOR 13 25 34 42 39 33 40 42 39 39 56 48 59
200 MB DIV 107 107 85 81 73 18 32 25 57 83 47 33 21
700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -7 -7 -4 0 2 4 5 7 6 8
LAND (KM) 2392 2380 2235 2123 2012 1825 1643 1503 1362 1191 973 800 644
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 8 7 7 8 9 10 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 22 32 28 28 38 31 18 11 7 11 1 0 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 12. 13. 11. 12. 10. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 29. 40. 45. 48. 46. 44. 39. 36.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 132.0
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.39 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 5.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.69 2.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 33.0% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.1% 35.0% 31.5% 17.7% 10.5% 34.8% 33.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Consensus: 1.4% 23.5% 18.7% 5.9% 3.5% 11.7% 11.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E
Code: Select all
EP, 98, 2016082600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1320W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
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