Fort Lauderdale to Deerfield...
Big thing to take from this run so far is that there still is a HUGE ridge in place and Euro shows significant deepening just prior to landfall at hour 168. Now to see what it does in the GOM for the rest of the run. Let's hope it doesn't get as far west as Louisiana. Those people certainly don't need this right now.
ATL: HERMINE - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Well that was a rapid change of events. Expecting stronger runs tonight.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
its faster than previous runs. was not approaching the coast till around the 31st. could be that it has a much stronger ridge and less slow drifting around before moving again.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Alyono wrote:995mb at landfall
Can you tell us the intensity on the high-resolution Euro? TS or Cat 1?
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Kingarabian
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Alyono wrote:995mb at landfall
Can you tell us the intensity on the high-resolution Euro? TS or Cat 1?
I would bet a Strong TS, minimal Cat 1.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Intensifying as it enters the GOM.
Down to 994mb.
Down to 994mb.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I'm starting to give some credence to the individuals on the board that have kept referencing Hurricane Erin from 1995. I'm starting to think Erin is a very good analog for this setup. Yesterday the Euro at 12z had landfall at Daytona Beach. Today it is in Fort Lauderdale. Somewhere in between would put it on the East Central Florida coast, Vero Beach to Melbourne.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
shocker... 
Furthermore, no trough to be found anywhere. Will someone please go and wake up Ninel??
Furthermore, no trough to be found anywhere. Will someone please go and wake up Ninel??
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Its not finished yet...shows a TS/Cat1 right off the coast of Fort Meyers moving WNW...
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Unfortunately for you Florida folks, this run makes a whole lot more sense than what the American model has been producing...
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Alyono wrote:EC starts cranking at 144 hours.
Looks like the MU needs to be fixed ASAP.
Yep assuming we end up with a hurricane in the Bahamas, agreed something isn't right with this model. These are the times we need our models to perform!
Both Euro and UKMET are screaming development while our American model seems completely lost
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Ridge appears to be weakening as the system enters the Gulf. I'd expect a gentle curve to the north, since no trough is in sight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
If the Euro is correct we know fast systems strengthen over the Gulf Stream and even after they make landfall over the flat and swampy S Florida.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Unfortunately for you Florida folks, this run makes a whole lot more sense than what the American model has been producing...
Run to run the GFS is all over the board. At some point you have to step back and look at the bigger picture and inject some common sense. I'm glad the fine people at the NHC are able to do that. The fact that the GFS continues to have these issues over and over again is embarrassing. We should be able to produce a better product than that.
SFT
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Remember that the Euro has been on and off too. It's only over magnified on the GFS because that model runs 4 times a day compared to 2 times a day for the Euro.
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