ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

A tropical wave is over the Central Atlantic with an axis
extending from near 19N49W to 08N49W, moving westward at around 15
kt. This wave is accompanied by a 1010 mb low near 15N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 20N between 48W and
54W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 46W
and 50W. Environmental conditions appear somewhat favorable for
additional development of this system over the next several days.

[wxman57]

There's no question that it has a broad circulation, as ASCAT indicated on an overnight pass. It needs to have a tighter & better-defined LLC with convection overhead to be upgraded.

[Gustywind]

There's no question that it has a broad circulation, as ASCAT indicated on an overnight pass. It needs to have a tighter & better-defined LLC with convection overhead to be upgraded.

so do you think that a TD could form later today before reaching the Leewards?

[gatorcane]

With the Euro even more bullish on development and now for at least three consecutive runs, time for NHC to raise development chances for the next outlook.

[tolakram]

Live all day loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-51&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18&mapcolor=gray&map=none

If Fiona stays active it might be imparting some shear on 99.

[Gustywind]

With the Euro even more bullish on development and now for at least three consecutive runs, time for NHC to raise development chances for the next outlook.

Honestly Gatorcane, what are your best guess about 99L approaching the Leewards? After Aric input and many thougts of others well experts of this board i'm a bit worry about 99L proximity near the islands...
Thanks.
Regards.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 16.4°N 51.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[gatorcane]

Atlantic wide-view IR. For folks in the Bahamas and maybe Florida, this could be the real deal - end to hurricane drought in Florida?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

its really looking nice. For me its like 97L that became earl, they really disregarded that one and its development and favored 96 and 97 ended up exceeding expectations and fought through the unfavorable conditions. Think this is gonna be the same. If fiona steers downward a bit would this help 99 intensify? also if it does intensify would it be possible for 99 to grab some of fionas bands and somewhat merge?

[NDG]

Winds from the NW at bouy 41040.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Yeah, I believe we have a closed circulation, at least a weak broad one.

[wxman57]

There's no question that it has a broad circulation, as ASCAT indicated on an overnight pass. It needs to have a tighter & better-defined LLC with convection overhead to be upgraded.

so do you think that a TD could form later today before reaching the Leewards?

I don't know about that. Development may have to wait another 5 days.

[Gustywind]

There's no question that it has a broad circulation, as ASCAT indicated on an overnight pass. It needs to have a tighter & better-defined LLC with convection overhead to be upgraded.

so do you think that a TD could form later today before reaching the Leewards?

I don't know about that. Development may have to wait another 5 days.

Thanks . Looks like a strong twave but no more. Let's wait and see if this scenario verifies.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z guidance initialized it much farther to the north.. interesting.

[stormlover2013]

image??

[Aric Dunn]

image??

[SeGaBob]

There's no question that it has a broad circulation, as ASCAT indicated on an overnight pass. It needs to have a tighter & better-defined LLC with convection overhead to be upgraded.

I see it's your birthday today...hope you have a good one. I enjoy reading your posts by the way.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami discussion due out in the next hour or two. Curious what they say given the ECMWF and model trends.

[sunnyday]

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

NWS Miami discussion due out in the next hour or two. Curious what they say given the ECMWF and model trends.

Being 7 days out I doubt they will mention it.

[hurrtracker79]

I see everything trending towards FL. Going to be tough to make a right turn unless Fiona somehow gets real strong or Gaston marches more to the west. Favorable environment is concerning given the high to the north.

Some people are saying that this could be the end to Florida's drought season. The east coast of the state has been in a so-called hurricane drought for several years. Why would it change now?
Most times a storm threatens at all, some of the models show it hitting the state. Most of those times, the storm goes elsewhere. Does anyone here feel any leanings toward or against a Florida storm this time?




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.