ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Everyone,

this is a thread to discuss the model runs or 99L. If every other post is reminding us to not take the longer range models seriously it can get pretty testy in here. If watching long range models makes you nervous keep out and pay attention to the MOST reliable source, the NHC.

[Aric Dunn]

18z guidance initialized it well to the north of 12Z in the deep convection where the center of rotation clearly is.

[ronjon]

At least if the ridge verifies, we'll have a pretty good idea where it's going - at least on a forecast LF position along the FL east coast. Of course, these are model predictions a week out right now and we don't even have a TD formed yet. So its just watch and wait time now.

[chaser1]

this is also all assuming it does not form or strengthen earlier over bahamas in which case could be even stronger for both landfalls.

"bingo"

Or, just one of many minor differences that might change timing, landfall, and strength - what if we were already dealing with a T. D. just east or north of Puerto Rico? Then we might see an earlier poleward motion and earlier strengthening, perhaps allowing 99L to come inland near Vero or even St. Augustine but as a stronger hurricane. So many nuances can play out here but assuming that this continues on an upward structural and convective trend, I'd say that we'll at least begin to start seeing a little more model consistancy.

[SouthFLTropics]

In regards to that run of the Euro let's just say this...

Boy that escalated quickly!!!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/767799529244594176

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

At least if the ridge verifies, we'll have a pretty good idea where it's going - at least on a forecast LF position along the FL east coast. Of course, these are model predictions a week out right now and we don't even have a TD formed yet. So its just watch and wait time now.

Great post, with no well defined center yet all the predictions could be garbage. Best to wait until the system actually consolidates a circulation first.

[tolakram]

Tweets in the model thread. What is the world coming too.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/767800984902963201




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[tarheelprogrammer]

This seems to be the most likely path. The 12z ECMWF has the path right and I think the HRWF has the intensity part correct. If the UL environment is what the ECMWF shows then it could get much stronger sitting over some of the hottest water in the world. Just an opinion based on what I seen in the models today. I think the GFS is having issues with the complexity.

[AutoPenalti]

This seems to be the most likely path. The 12z ECMWF has the path right and I think the HRWF has the intensity part correct. If the UL environment is what the ECMWF shows then it could get much stronger sitting over some of the hottest water in the world. Just an opinion based on what I seen in the models today. I think the GFS is having issues with the complexity.

It might even be stronger before it even traverses the Bahamas...

[StormHunter72]

Recon data should prove valuable with future model runs.

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!! Hows it been going? Well, the Wheaties box goes to the 12z euro run today, huh? IMHO, GFS (todays run) looks lost. The system looks better now vs what GFS is trying to show.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hey everyone!! Hows it been going? Well, the Wheaties box goes to the 12z euro run today, huh? IMHO, GFS (todays run) looks lost. The system looks better now vs what GFS is trying to show.

Deltadog...Good to see you post. Always good to hear your expert opinion.

[RL3AO]

Hey everyone!! Hows it been going? Well, the Wheaties box goes to the 12z euro run today, huh? IMHO, GFS (todays run) looks lost. The system looks better now vs what GFS is trying to show.

You make a good point. Looks like a really good environment. If it can avoid land interaction with Hispaniola, it seems like something you would expect to develop.

[OuterBanker]

Let’s just see if I’ve got this right.
I’m only going to use land falling storms on the GFS only.
So far we have 72 pages on a wave that hasn’t even made it to depression yet.
The GFS has had a major hurricane graze the outer banks and slam into new England (page 6).
A minimum hurricane in Miami then onto Pensacola as a major (page11)
A major into the FL/Ga border (apparently no one told the GFS how impossible that scenario is) page 17
A minimal hurricane into NOLA (page 25)
Back to Pensacola page 44
Central Florida east coast page 66
Miami as a strong tropical storm.
That’s only the GFS. If I were a betting man I’d say the Florida panhandle or the west coast of Florida somewhere.
Low and behold the Euro the has a monster striking above Tampa.

[Blown Away]

Not many people, but that would reshape the NE Gulf... The surge would be epic... Huge environmental impact...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET track. ex-Fiona and 99l converge on Florida:

[HurricaneBelle]

Very similar to Katrina. Develops in Bahamas, RI before hitting Miami, and then into the Gulf. Something under a ridge in the Bahamas in August needs to be watched very very closely.

This path was the original Katrina forecast - it was suppose to recurve north parallel to the W coast of FL after emerging into the Gulf, but it instead moved SW across extreme SFL after making landfall and continued moving WSW for awhile, leading it to recurve a couple of days later.

If it verified, it would be a disaster for the FL West coast. Even though it might make landfall in the Big Bend (which few major hurricanes have ever done), the storm surge from Pinellas County north would be devastating.

[p1nheadlarry]

Well 99L will have everyone's attention the next week or so. Not ready to panic or be concerned just yet - if the forecasted mid-level ridge is still there in the models two days from now - then I'll start worrying. This situation looks analogous pattern-wise to Katrina in 2005 or dare I say Andrew in 1992.

Looks like a Frances-type storm. If it slows down past the Bahamas and hits the panhandle, it's nearly identical

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/767810953551417344