ATL: HERMINE - Models

[p1nheadlarry]

Let’s just see if I’ve got this right.
I’m only going to use land falling storms on the GFS only.
So far we have 72 pages on a wave that hasn’t even made it to depression yet.
The GFS has had a major hurricane graze the outer banks and slam into new England (page 6).
A minimum hurricane in Miami then onto Pensacola as a major (page11)
A major into the FL/Ga border (apparently no one told the GFS how impossible that scenario is) page 17
A minimal hurricane into NOLA (page 25)
Back to Pensacola page 44
Central Florida east coast page 66
Miami as a strong tropical storm.
That’s only the GFS. If I were a betting man I’d say the Florida panhandle or the west coast of Florida somewhere.
Low and behold the Euro the has a monster striking above Tampa.

The models seem to agree on the position of the ridge that could keep 99L going west, but if it retreated north a little bit, how could that not put N FL into play?

[ronjon]

Well 99L will have everyone's attention the next week or so. Not ready to panic or be concerned just yet - if the forecasted mid-level ridge is still there in the models two days from now - then I'll start worrying. This situation looks analogous pattern-wise to Katrina in 2005 or dare I say Andrew in 1992.

Looks like a Frances-type storm. If it slows down past the Bahamas and hits the panhandle, it's nearly identical

Yes you could add that one too - although was thinking also where it formed - Frances was along tracker at hurricane strength.

[p1nheadlarry]

Well 99L will have everyone's attention the next week or so. Not ready to panic or be concerned just yet - if the forecasted mid-level ridge is still there in the models two days from now - then I'll start worrying. This situation looks analogous pattern-wise to Katrina in 2005 or dare I say Andrew in 1992.

Looks like a Frances-type storm. If it slows down past the Bahamas and hits the panhandle, it's nearly identical

Yes you could add that one too - although was thinking also where it formed - Frances was along tracker at hurricane strength.

That's true, intensities would be flip-flopped. Frances never regained hurricane strength after crossing FL.

[chaser1]

Two storms potentially hitting Florida in the next 10 days; hmmm go figure.

[Hammy]

Three days ago, Euro showed nothing while the GFS showed a major FL landfall. Now the models have flipped as the time frame draws nearer--is the GFS having initialization problems or is the Euro now the one overdoing it?

[centuryv58]

Two storms potentially hitting Florida in the next 10 days; hmmm go figure.

Not since Frances and Jean (3 weeks apart), Saw them both up close.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Very similar to Katrina. Develops in Bahamas, RI before hitting Miami, and then into the Gulf. Something under a ridge in the Bahamas in August needs to be watched very very closely.

Wow the fact ive seen two people start seeing a pattern similar to katrina or any other strong 2005 storm is never settling

[p1nheadlarry]

Very similar to Katrina. Develops in Bahamas, RI before hitting Miami, and then into the Gulf. Something under a ridge in the Bahamas in August needs to be watched very very closely.

Not to overlook our current tropics, but I'll be interested to see if this strong ridging pattern persists through the first couple weeks of September. Storms over Africa look pretty healthy, and we'll be in a positive MJO phase by the start of the month I'd think. It's that time of year.

[Evil Jeremy]

Two storms potentially hitting Florida in the next 10 days; hmmm go figure.

What's the other hypothetical system?

[AutoPenalti]

Two storms potentially hitting Florida in the next 10 days; hmmm go figure.

What's the other hypothetical system?

Fiona.

[Siker]

Most of the 12z Euro ensembles that develop this (a good number) are at least slightly west of the operational. Cluster in the western panhandle, with some going all the way to Texas and Mexico. Only one stays east of Florida.

[gatorcane]

Some ridge as shown on the 12Z Euro ensembles:

[JaxGator]

this is also all assuming it does not form or strengthen earlier over bahamas in which case could be even stronger for both landfalls.

"bingo"

Or, just one of many minor differences that might change timing, landfall, and strength - what if we were already dealing with a T. D. just east or north of Puerto Rico? Then we might see an earlier poleward motion and earlier strengthening, perhaps allowing 99L to come inland near Vero or even St. Augustine but as a stronger hurricane. So many nuances can play out here but assuming that this continues on an upward structural and convective trend, I'd say that we'll at least begin to start seeing a little more model consistancy.

That's a big concern indeed. I know OuterBanker said a landfall in Florida-Gegoria is impossible but it's not. Beryl (2012)was a recent example of a storm hitting form the east and other examples besides Dora. Both steered by a ridge. However, 99L is not welcome here but I'll be watching closely.

[JaxGator]

On that run, it wouldn't matter which side of Florida you're on. Whoa!

[StrongWind]

Afternoon everyone,

Been on the board for several days watching reading. But with the latest run's it would appear we should start being a little concerned her in S, FLA and FL in general. Its still a ways out there but it seems most of the models are zeroing in on our area. With the High being so strong and not weakening, as someone on this page mentioned there is the possibility that the high keeps it a bit further south as it moves over FLA.

Everybody is focusing on the Gulf side of this. The current ECMWF shows it coming across SF Monday the 29th with a pressure of about 997. This could correspond to winds of about 50-55ish but could hopefully be lower because they haven't had a chance to catch up to the rapid intensification.


The posts in this forum, especially mine, are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[bamajammer4eva]

Very similar to Katrina. Develops in Bahamas, RI before hitting Miami, and then into the Gulf. Something under a ridge in the Bahamas in August needs to be watched very very closely.

Wow the fact ive seen two people start seeing a pattern similar to katrina or any other strong 2005 storm is never settling

At least it's not landfalling on Monday August 29th like Katrina did. Calendar setup has the same dates on the same days as it was in 2005 while we're using 2004s name list minus the retirees.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM looks to start developing it at the end of the run for the first time, heading WNW:

[stormlover2013]

boy that is a a strong ridge but still early

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z starts at 5:25pm.

My guess is still no development or late slow development staying east of Florida.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Everyone knows the NAM is not the most reliable model, But I think a couple of runs ago, it had 99L coming in some where from the Keys to Miami. So now the the most of the models have clustered in this general area, it may have been on to it already.