ATL: HERMINE - Models

[northjaxpro]

Well that EURO is going to raise some eyebrows here in FL.. Note also that is very rare to have a major hitting the Big Bend area of FL coast.

Heaven forbid this scenario. This would devastating in the Big Bend region. Still a week away, but this run is a huge eye opener for me for certain!

[stormlover2013]

anybody have the ensemble for euro??

[northjaxpro]

On that run, it wouldn't matter which side of Florida you're on. Whoa!

This is the worst possible scenario for Florida as a whole. Plus, you are talking about a major hurricane impacting the. Big Bend with devastating impacts.

I really hope somehow EURO backs off with this as time progresses. WOW. .

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z Gfs starts in about 15 minutes. Honestly, I cannot wait to see what it shows.

[stormlover2013]

Prob show eastcoast or Mexico lol

[tolakram]

anybody have the ensemble for euro??

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/767824355137118209

[jason1912]

18z GFS just came out.

[gatorcane]

The reason for the 12Z GFS not developing 99L in the Bahamas in that ULL that develops just north of the Bahamas. Will it continue to forecast a ULL in the 18Z run?

[p1nheadlarry]

Some ridge as shown on the 12Z Euro ensembles:

Sucks for Florida if it comes to fruition. Luckily I haven't seen any models retreat the ridge back enough to where we up here could be in play. The out to sea route looks to still leave us alone. Usually we pick up the scraps.

[Aric Dunn]

remember the 18z models are initialized about 200 miles nnw of 12z location to better coincide with the system. may or may not change much.

[Frank2]

The GFS ready yet (granted, it'd still be about 156 hours out)...

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS ready yet (granted, it'd still be about 156 hours out)...

It's at hour 30 right now...Not much change from the 12z.

[Evil Jeremy]

Both Fiona and 99L are moving just a smidge quicker through 42 hours.

[Frank2]

Thanks - the S2K map does show the overall NW pattern. Local TV met said one of the fronts could pick up the system, but too soon to tell...

[SouthFLTropics]

Vort may be slightly more defined at 48 hours than 12z...

Edit - Vort noticeably more defined at 54 hours

[Blown Away]

Likely see Cat 5, Dissipate, SFL, NGOM, TX, Mexico, Carolinas, and Out to Sea in models runs over next 7 days...

As SFL Cane says, never underestimate the "Magic Trap Door"...

[hohnywx]

Everyone knows the NAM is not the most reliable model, But I think a couple of runs ago, it had 99L coming in some where from the Keys to Miami. So now the the most of the models have clustered in this general area, it may have been on to it already.

? The NAM only runs out to 84 hrs

[OuterBanker]

Is this the same GFS that had Fiona heading east of bermuda that now has it east of Florida. Sure am glad the GFS went through all the improvements this year.

[SouthFLTropics]

High pressure is entrenched across the Eastern Seaboard at 66 hours...So far I see no sign of the ULL.

[Dean4Storms]

It's not so much an ULL that is the problem as it is a mid level trough setup by the Ridge over the Carolina's inducing very dry air at mid levels, the GFS has had that mid level trough back clear to north Florida with very low RH from there stretching out to off the East Coast toward the north Atlantic.