ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

WV loop showing the dry air 99l is encountering as it moves west - well-forecasted by the models:

[La Sirena]

Good afternoon, all! It's been awhile since I've posted but I've got both a long term and short term interest in 99L. The old timers on the board may recall that I'm one of the lucky souls living in paradise (aka the west central coast of Florida) and obviously the location and strength of 99L (or whatever it has by then) is of more than a passing concern. As for the short term, I'm posting this from the balcony of our time share unit overlooking the Atlantic at Frigate's Bay in St. Kitts. We know that Tuesday night through Thursday are going to be interesting here to say the least--and I certainly appreciate the up to the minute reports on what appears to be a strengthening 99L as it approaches the islands...Keep posting, everyone and if needed I'll post reports if I can when 99L arrives here!

Well, I would be interested to hear any weather reports when 99L approaches y'all! I'll be lurking and watching from my home 120 miles from Cuba aka the Florida Keys. It's certainly becoming "interesting " as we head into the end of August.

[AutoPenalti]

WV loop showing the dry air 99l is encountering as it moves west - well-forecasted by the models:

Seems to be retrograding west.

[Aric Dunn]

the water vapor is mostly showing upper level moisture which plays a much smaller role in maintaining a system. the mid level moisture has been on the increase and will continue to. expect convection to persist from this point on... will it organize enough remains to be the question.

[TheProfessor]

Hello everyone. Tropical weather is probably where I have the least experience in, but I decided to share some of my thoughts. Now I know the latest Euro was 1 run and we will need to see more before we start thinking of a major land strike. However, on the models page someone mentioned how the model thought Katrina would take a NE turn into Florida but they underestimated the ridge and the storm was pushed south and west. Now hypothetically if this were to happen again what can this storm do that would be worse than Katrina? Well for the New Orleans Area I'm not sure it could get much worse, but that's not saying much. It's actually other parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. I went back and looked at the month of August 2005 before Katrina and it was dry, very little rain fell in just about all of Louisiana before Katrina went through. Due to the recent floods and saturated grounds I feel that if a storm identical to Katrina were to move through that area then the impact would be a lot worse in areas further away from where Katrina had her worst impacts. Just my thoughts, and again I'm not predicting or saying this will happen.

[tropicwatch]

99L is not far off from being under pretty optimal upper level conditions.

[msbee]

watching this carefully in the NE Caribbean on the island of St Maarten. Even a strong tropical wave could bring us flooding

[Aric Dunn]

watching satellite the last few hours. it appears to be stretching out quite a bit. almost looking like just a boundary produced by the much larger new depression and fiona stretching it.

[Hammy]

watching satellite the last few hours. it appears to be stretching out quite a bit. almost looking like just a boundary produced by the much larger new depression and fiona stretching it.

CIMSS shows the vorticity weakening as well--I remember a few days ago the (reliable) models showed some sort of increased organization, albeit temporary, for a day or two before it entered the Caribbean. Hopefully something holds together long enough to get a plane out there tomorrow so we can at least have better model outputs.

[shortwave]

Looks a bit stretched, zipping along quickly maybe @ 20? Very curious as to the structure. Based on satellite It does not seem better organized and just as the models are predicting it may not for another 4 days. Hopefully recon tomorrow will clarify. Once it slows and if the dry air to the west moistens it has definitely got potential. Is that dry air ahead sliding to the west or modifying? Future upper air pattern going to have quite the effect. Every model seems to have a different layout

[TheStormExpert]

Latest video discussion by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan concerning Invest 99L.

He mentions how conditions might not be 100% ideal in the Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/767834708944228356

[NDG]

I am starting to think that if Fiona's moisture envelope gets pulled in ahead of 99L west into the FL Peninsula by the massive ridge over the Carolinas it could help 99L stay in a moist environment over the Bahamas, if it doesn't then it runs the chances of the dry air rotating SW across the Atlantic coast off of the Mid Atlantic getting entrained into the circulation of 99L.

[NDG]

Latest video discussion by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan concerning Invest 99L.

He mentions how conditions might not be 100% ideal in the Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/767834708944228356

I got the feeling he's not buying into the 12z Euro just yet, and I can see why, conditions could be ideal or destructive. The only way that I could see that UL conditions could be better over the Bahamas is if the UL ridge builds further north over the mid Atlantic and the inverted trough across the western Atlantic pushes to the north also away from the Bahamas giving a little room for an UL ridge to build over 99L.

[psyclone]

Levi's cautious stance is warranted IMO. too much uncertainty and it's still a long way out. I'm not buying into super bullish or super bearish runs of any particular model. My logic is...it's late August, there's a disturbance that may develop...so i'm tuned in. we all know infamous storms that formed this time of year...but what's less memorable are the many more disturbances that had potential but for whatever reason failed to develop. what I do find interesting is the extent to which the atlantic has lit up...right on schedule. we need some ACE here in late August and I suspect we're going to get some...and 99L may very well wind up a contributor. We're in that zone of "stay tuned but don't freak out"..

[SFLcane]

If current trends keep up overnight recon tommorow might be scrubbed id think. Don't think nhc will increase percentages to much still very disorganized.

[cycloneye]

40%-60%

A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development late this week when the system
is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central
Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday, if necessary.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[galaxy401]

If current trends keep up overnight recon tommorow might be scrubbed id think. Don't think nhc will increase percentages to much still very disorganized.

Nope. Orange now.

[cycloneye]

I guess the increase to 60% has to do in part to the ECMWF.

[TheStormExpert]

Even the NHC is cautious about the favorable conditions in the Bahamas with saying 'they could become favorable.'

[psyclone]

a two out of five shot in the next 48 hours is pretty decent.