ATL: HERMINE - Models

[hurrtracker79]

At least it shows developement again. That is a start

You got to start somewhere, right?

[rickybobby]

I thought it was going to hit central florida on Monday and now it's showing Thursday,

[Bocadude85]

Should head out to sea on this run

[Hurricaneman]

The problem I have with the GFS is its slowly moving or stalled with a ridge to the north which makes little sense but if it does stall then maybe Gaston can take it out to sea but if it happens like the other models this could be a little more than an annoyance

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Bocadude85]

The problem I have with the GFS is its slowly moving or stalled with a ridge to the north which makes little sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

GFS has this sitting in the Bahamas for almost a week

[stormlover2013]

Lol that is crazy

[Hurricaneman]

The problem I have with the GFS is its slowly moving or stalled with a ridge to the north which makes little sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

GFS has this sitting in the Bahamas for almost a week

makes little sense with the players on the table

[Kingarabian]

The problem I have with the GFS is its slowly moving or stalled with a ridge to the north which makes little sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

GFS has this sitting in the Bahamas for almost a week

The GFS should take a breather. That's a pretty complex algorithm it just attempted to solve.

[SeGaBob]

Usually the one model showing a recurve is right. Part of me says that's what'll happen, but it sure seems like most of the models don't want to do it with this. So like I said earlier I bet they keep trending west...time will tell.

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile while the MU does its thing, the HWRF is showing signs of life at 33 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Today was the first time in a while where I almost fell asleep following a model run.

[AtlanticWind]

The problem I have with the models at the moment is this may be developing quicker than any are showing if you
Look at satellite pics tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

Usually the one model showing a recurve is right. Part of me says that's what'll happen, but it sure seems like the models don't want to do it with this. So like I said earlier I bet they keep trending west...time will tell.

I would normally agree...except this time I have two good reasons not to. If it was about the 2nd or 3rd week of September I'd agree. More importantly, if this stubborn ridge hadn't been around all Summer I'd agree.

[Bocadude85]

Usually the one model showing a recurve is right. Part of me says that's what'll happen, but it sure seems like the models don't want to do it with this. So like I said earlier I bet they keep trending west...time will tell.

Of course this will eventually recurve..most models have this in the gulf way before 252 hours though.

[JtSmarts]

CMC ended up in Brunswick GA at about 168 hours.

[blp]

No way anything can get going with that environement on the GFS. Still develops it despite which tells me the potential is there.

[Bocadude85]

HWRF has this at 55kts in 48 hours. Also a tad faster and further west so far

[Cdavis]

This storm may very well be the end to Florida's hurricane drought.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

This storm may very well be the end to Florida's hurricane drought.

hate to say it but i definitely feel like this storm is gonna be the one that ends the drought. should probably call my grandfather in south central FL just to be on the safer side.

[Bocadude85]

This storm may very well be the end to Florida's hurricane drought.

I'm still not convinced this hits Florida. GFS is out to sea, UKMET shifted north a few hundred miles and the CMC also shifted north a few hundred miles. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows.