ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I dare say this is trying to close off near 16/55. If you put your mouse a little south of there, there is a very faint eastward movement to the low clouds over the last hour or so.

[Cdavis]

Not trying to sound any alarms but living in Daytona Beach, this system is starting to become alarming. Doesn't look good when all models point to you or a little south. Not saying this is gonna be a monster but we haven't had a good storm since '04. Hope this thing is nothing but a rain maker and goes away but I have that bad feeling, that although its been a good run, 2016 delivers a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

I dare say this is trying to close off near 16/55. If you put your mouse a little south of there, there is a very faint eastward movement to the low clouds over the last hour or so.

there is definitely quite a bit of increased inflow on the western side. would not be surprised if it is in the process now.

[SeGaBob]

That doesn't look like popcorn convection, seems to be a different kind.

[Hurricaneman]

looks to be trying to become a tropical cyclone and when recon gets there whos to say they won't find a tropical depression or if it organizes faster a tropical storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

That doesn't look like popcorn convection, seems to be a different kind.

that looks like the beginning of a cdo

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AtlanticWind]

Wonder if the chances may go to 50/70 at 2AM?

[Evil Jeremy]

Wonder if the chances may go to 50/70 at 2AM?

I would not be surprised. 99L has been on the up-and-up for a solid 24 hours now. We know its been able to maintain a general circulation over the past half week, and it seems to finally be tapping into it's fuel source. It looks now the best it has ever looked. Perhaps the NHC would want to wait until sunrise (8am) to make that jump. If 99L looks like this in the morning, I think recon will fly.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf brings it to TS in 15 hours..

hurricane at 54 hrs

[jlauderdal]

Be careful.with IR...irs sucked in many hurricane enthusiasts before only to dissapoint later

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Wonder if the chances may go to 50/70 at 2AM?

I would not be surprised. 99L has been on the up-and-up for a solid 24 hours now. We know its been able to maintain a general circulation over the past half week, and it seems to finally be tapping into it's fuel source. It looks now the best it has ever looked. Perhaps the NHC would want to wait until sunrise (8am) to make that jump. If 99L looks like this in the morning, I think recon will fly.

oh definitely theres no doubt that if 99 looks this way in the morning recon will fly. i think because so many of the models have it making a US landfall where there hasnt been one in 11 yrs they will want to get a good handle on this to have people prepare simply because florida and the gulf coasts have increased exponentially in population.

[SouthFLTropics]

hwrf brings it to TS in 15 hours..

hurricane at 54 hrs

00z drops it back down considerably at 69 hours...I'm looking for that 90 to 100 hour mark where it really took off on the 18z.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf brings it to TS in 15 hours..

hurricane at 54 hrs

00z drops it back down considerably at 69 hours...I'm looking for that 90 to 100 hour mark where it really took off on the 18z.

it does but the hwrf often fluctuates quite a bit the formative stage. gradual strengthening is more likely.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely appears a weak circ popped out from under the earlier convection. just before the little bulb of convection started on the far western side.. you could see it and now there is westerly inflow to the south of it. dont think its well defined but that convection blew up right over it.

[Hammy]

Direction of cloud movement based on satellite here, since low clouds are easily visible.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Direction of cloud movement based on satellite here, since low clouds are easily visible.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

a little north of there

[SouthFLTropics]

Cane at hour 96 on HWRF...started firing at hour 90 like clockwork.

[SeGaBob]

Almost time for the next TWO, might be interesting.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Direction of cloud movement based on satellite here, since low clouds are easily visible.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

a little north of there

i definitely see the area your talking about, and now has me confused on why gfs is on the out to sea recurve kick again.

[Hammy]

Direction of cloud movement based on satellite here, since low clouds are easily visible.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

a little north of there

i definitely see the area your talking about, and now has me confused on why gfs is on the out to sea recurve kick again.

Likely poor initialization, as well as possible feedback due to Fiona's remnants--if it stalls out like that it would probably go out to sea, but none of the other models show it stalling.