ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Direction of cloud movement based on satellite here, since low clouds are easily visible.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

a little north of there

i definitely see the area your talking about, and now has me confused on why gfs is on the out to sea recurve kick again.

GFS sees what many don't at this point. Ridge could weaken and get picked up by the magic trough.

[SeGaBob]

Storms filling in nicely on the 05:15 frame

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

a little north of there

i definitely see the area your talking about, and now has me confused on why gfs is on the out to sea recurve kick again.

GFS sees what many don't at this point. Ridge could weaken and get picked up by the magic trough.

lol magic trough

[Aric Dunn]

i definitely see the area your talking about, and now has me confused on why gfs is on the out to sea recurve kick again.

GFS sees what many don't at this point. Ridge could weaken and get picked up by the magic trough.

lol magic trough

gfs is not showing the ridge weakening .. it stalls the system for a long time until a trough moves in. different.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

GFS sees what many don't at this point. Ridge could weaken and get picked up by the magic trough.

lol magic trough

gfs is not showing the ridge weakening .. it stalls the system for a long time until a trough moves in. different.

ah thank you for that the clarification

[AutoPenalti]

lol magic trough

gfs is not showing the ridge weakening .. it stalls the system for a long time until a trough moves in. different.

ah thank you for that the clarification

But then *poof*
A wild trough appears...

[Aric Dunn]

up to 40/60%

[SeGaBob]

up to 40/60%

That's 8pm

[Hammy]

Still no 2am TWO.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

gfs is not showing the ridge weakening .. it stalls the system for a long time until a trough moves in. different.

ah thank you for that the clarification

But then *poof*
A wild trough appears...

i just read that in a david attenborough voice lol

[Aric Dunn]

up to 40/60%

That's 8pm

oh lol, didn't see the 8pm just opened it a saw that.. last one I saw was the 2pm

[stormhunter7]

Must of been a pretty flight a few minutes ago, or heck it could of been real dark? lol. Just passing by at over 65kft!

[Aric Dunn]

00z hwrf is disturbing... and quite reasonable..

slower and further south and west.. hmmm

[SeGaBob]

60/60

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

00z hwrf is disturbing... and quite reasonable..

slower and further south and west.. hmmm

yeah essentially a "slow and steady wins the race" type situation

[Bocadude85]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston,
located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally conducive for gradual
development while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by late this
week when the system is forecast to move near Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this morning. Interests in the central and northern Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Public Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Stewart

[stormhunter7]

Good to see Capt Stewart on the overnight shift. He bumped TWO up to 60/60. He can real satellites/obs pretty well and interpret globals pretty damn well too.

[Hammy]

I'm starting to see faint inflow bands on the S/SW side of the convection now.

[SouthFLTropics]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston,
located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally conducive for gradual
development while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by late this
week when the system is forecast to move near Hispaniola and Puerto
Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later this morning. Interests in the central and northern Lesser
Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Public Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Gaston are issued under WMO header
WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Stewart

Stewart is on duty...no surprise they upped the odds. He's never been hesitant to pull the trigger. I think if it would have been Avila it would've waited until 8:00AM for visible.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm actually on my way back to Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday night. Umm, looks like I may need to plan accordingly.