ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Socalhurcnegirl227
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1761 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:31 am

Image

Miami hit 144hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1762 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:31 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
paintplaye wrote:Large ridge once again but further north. Heading W to WSW now according to ECMWF.



remember its farther north initially because it was stronger than the last run earlier. the synoptic setup is the same.


What's it look like strength wise to you Aric?


looks similar to 12z. just a little faster. not sure it will be that fast but its far out. will see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1763 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:32 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
paintplaye wrote:Large ridge once again but further north. Heading W to WSW now according to ECMWF.



remember its farther north initially because it was stronger than the last run earlier. the synoptic setup is the same.



I was replying to the east coast ridge mainly. The rest doesn't matter as much (in respect to intensity etc).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1764 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:33 am

SFLcane wrote:Ok folks with 2 runs of euro I think it's time to really pay attention now. Now sleep for me work at 6am but it's worth it. :lol:


You're not alone my friend...same here!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1765 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:33 am

Landfall is actually pretty close to the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1766 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:33 am

given the resolution.. its likely down to around 985mb and deepening..

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1767 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:34 am

I got fooled into thinking around Melbourne based on earlier WNW movement on the 0Z Euro but the ridge had stronger influence and moved it WSW. What a powerful ridge!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1768 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:34 am

I wonder what happens in the gulf this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1769 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:35 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Ok folks with 2 runs of euro I think it's time to really pay attention now. Now sleep for me work at 6am but it's worth it. :lol:


You're not alone my friend...same here!!!

Personally I'd give it another run or two before really being concerned.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1770 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:36 am

Aric Dunn wrote:given the resolution.. its likely down to around 985mb and deepening..

Image

Yep, still yet to go over the Gulf Stream.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1771 Postby ronyan » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:37 am

990 mbar 0ver land
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1772 Postby SeGaBob » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:37 am

It deepens over Florida looks like.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1773 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 am

989 near tampa.. meaning it deepened pretty good before landfall.. looks like last run just a tad faster..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1774 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 am

ronyan wrote:990 mbar 0ver land



Yep, and getting ready to exit into the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1775 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:38 am

990mb @ 168hrs. exiting Florida's west coast around Tampa.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1776 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:39 am

Should start to begin heading NW now that ridging is breaking down around 160 hours out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1777 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:40 am

i think that's the remnants of Fiona in the W Gulf at 168
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1778 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:40 am

TheStormExpert wrote:990mb @ 168hrs. exiting Florida's west coast around Tampa.

Image


entering the gulf right there at 990 is throwing kerosine on a flame isnt it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1779 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:40 am

989 mb though again with better resolution likely low 980's mb. wnw motion.. how far off the coast is important.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1780 Postby ronyan » Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:42 am

NNW! @ 192 hr
Last edited by ronyan on Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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