ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

It's scheduled for take off at 13Z. I still don't think it needs to go today but maybe they want data.

Yes. We definitely need to get a better sampling of data with the environment surrounding 99L. Any new data imputed to the models should help give us better insight to what will evolve with this system hopefully down the road, especially for the next 5-7 days.

[AJC3]

You probably thought that was said because of the text I highlighted.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/768013443412525056

[Nederlander]

The PW comparison of the 3 systems is amazing... Poor Fiona lol

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/768027824435433473

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/768032843351986176

[jlauderdal]

yep, we will monitor closely...

[Gustywind]

First SSD appareance...

23/0545 UTC 15.9N 54.7W T1.0/1.0 99L

[Blinhart]

So will this be a Katrina, Andrew or Lilly? or something totally different? I guess it all depends on where the center is located when it forms and many different things that can change in a heart beat.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

A tropical wave is located about 348 nm east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands extending from 11N to 21N with axis near 55W. The
wave is associated with a 1009 mb low located near 16N55W and has
been moving west at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Moisture
has increased in the wave environment, which along with favorable
deep layer wind shear and upper level diffluence support heavy showers
and isolated tstms from 13N to 20N between 53W and 58W. Conditions
are marginally conducive for some gradual development during the
next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development late this week when the system is
expected to move near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the
southeastern and central Bahamas.

[deltadog03]

Looks pretty good for now. The daily blow ups will continue with that much moisture around...

[NDG]

Morning satellite of all TD Fiona, 99L & TS Gaston.
Yeap, the GFS makes perfect sense that Fiona will absorb 99L, lol j/k

[Blown Away]

TAFB... First appearance of "Possible Tropical Cyclone"

[NDG]

[MGC]

I've been looking at the first few visible frames, there is clearly a wind out of the north which then shift to a NW wind to 99L south. Looks to me a circulation might be forming to me. Recon will prove if I'm right or wrong......MGC

[NDG]

Barbados has been reporting northerly winds this morning, no question it has had a broad circulation for days now but the question is if the Recon will find a well defined LLC. No such evidence this morning, IMO. Recon will answer it for us.

[JaxGator]

Very active TW... 99L has looked very healthy all day... The models initial points don't reflect a tropical low this healthy...

They might be underestimating it in its current healthy state.

I wouldn't say healthy, latest ASCAT pass shows there's little to no circulation left and it's flattened out quite a bit since yesterday.

Humm..interesting. Well, they'll have to do a new pass overhead plus if recon goes in, they find out for sure if a low has formed or in the process of forming. Its huge moisture and engery supply it has is helping right now.

[SouthDadeFish]

It does appear that convective outflow is improving in the western, southern, and eastern quadrants. This is a sign that the disturbance is becoming more aligned with the upper-tropospheric anticyclone, which will aid further convective development. At this time, I doubt a surface circulation exists, but there is clearly some cyclonic turning going on. I'm assuming it is primarily occurring in the mid-levels.

It will be a close call whether or not NHC sends out recon today. If convection persists, I would lean towards them sending out recon due to the disturbance's proximity to land.

[NDG]

They might be underestimating it in its current healthy state.

I wouldn't say healthy, latest ASCAT pass shows there's little to no circulation left and it's flattened out quite a bit since yesterday.

http://i.imgur.com/KhfWGKC.png

Humm..interesting. Well, they'll have to do a new pass overhead plus if recon goes in, they find out for sure if a low has formed or in the process of forming. Its huge moisture and engery supply it has is helping right now.

The pass is from 8:23 PM last night and it missed half of the system.

[JaxGator]

I wouldn't say healthy, latest ASCAT pass shows there's little to no circulation left and it's flattened out quite a bit since yesterday.

http://i.imgur.com/KhfWGKC.png

Humm..interesting. Well, they'll have to do a new pass overhead plus if recon goes in, they find out for sure if a low has formed or in the process of forming. Its huge moisture and engery supply it has is helping right now.

The pass is from 8:23 PM last night and it missed half of the system.

I saw the time but didn't know it missed half of it. Thanks. It should look different this morning.