ATL: HERMINE - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1821 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z further west with 99L, over Florida. Let's see what it does in the GOM.

At least the synoptic steering is more inline with the Euro.


That's Fiona that you are looking at, it has 99L just vanish or get absorbed by it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1822 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:20 am

Keeping my fingers crossed recon successfully goes later this morning to resolve these model issues. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1823 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1824 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:25 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z further west with 99L, over Florida. Let's see what it does in the GOM.

At least the synoptic steering is more inline with the Euro.


That's Fiona that you are looking at, it has 99L just vanish or get absorbed by it.


Idk man. I agree that in the last 3 runs, the GFS has been showing solutions that are sketchy. But I'm keeping faith that our tax payer money is being put into good use.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1825 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:28 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:06z further west with 99L, over Florida. Let's see what it does in the GOM.

At least the synoptic steering is more inline with the Euro.


That's Fiona that you are looking at, it has 99L just vanish or get absorbed by it.


One thing of note is every model sees a strong ridge and something making FL wet next week whether it's a hybrid Fiona or 99l..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1826 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:30 am

Watch as crazy GFS has Fiona absorb 99L's vorticity.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1827 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:46 am

06Z GFS +132hr. Looks like GFS finally caves to the Euro:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1828 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:47 am

Well, I think its clear, the euro is trying to lock onto some kind of trend...lets see what the later runs today bring. Looks healthy this morning. Should still stay weak for the next 2-3 days. EURO is loving the environment around the Bahamas and the SE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1829 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1830 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:48 am

+180hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1831 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:52 am

I think it just goes down to where the center forms. Really reminds me of Debby 2012. Euro had a hurricane going into Texas with clear cut steering that even the GFS showed. But since the GFS had Debbys center else where, it went directly into Florida.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1832 Postby stormwise » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:55 am

Image
EPS had no interest on the last run, when the deterministic was showing that cane on Florida soil.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1833 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:56 am

Image
06z SFWMD...
Image
06z Intensity...
Image
06z... Don't like the TVCN Consensus over me...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1834 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:56 am

We now are getting pretty good consensus on the steering set-up. Still average errors at five days are 250 miles so anywhere from the FL straits to JAX need to pay attention. 06Z GFS now concurs with the European model track - just difference in intensity. Watch and wait time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1835 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:07 am

06z HWRF has 99L as a weak TS through the northern Lesser Antilles tonight into tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1836 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:09 am

HWRF running...pay close attention to the 84+ hour time frame to see if it starts to blow up once again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1837 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:14 am

Appearance looking better at hour 72. Starting at hour 84 it should start to wind up if it sticks to recent trends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1838 Postby xcool22 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:15 am

So from la to fl keeping eye on this one.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1839 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:24 am

Grrrrr...HWRF seems stuck on hour 72...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1840 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:25 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Grrrrr...HWRF seems stuck on hour 72...


I think 06z is going to make a more West run...
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