ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1841 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:29 am

There we go...hour 81, starting to crank up on HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1842 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:31 am

This run is going to be eye popping...at 96 hours looks to be a Cat two east of the Bahamas heading WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1843 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:34 am

We're still talking 5-6 days out here, but several models are converging on an east coast FL threat ... And virtually all of them are agreeing on strong ridging in the SE US. Plus, IF 99 were to take the kind of track the models are hinting at, she would pass over virtually no land ... And extremely warm water. So the potential is for this to become a more powerful system, in my opinion. Will just have to see
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1844 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:38 am

Weatherboy1 wrote:We're still talking 5-6 days out here, but several models are converging on an east coast FL threat ... And virtually all of them are agreeing on strong ridging in the SE US. Plus, IF 99 were to take the kind of track the models are hinting at, she would pass over virtually no land ... And extremely warm water. So the potential is for this to become a more powerful system, in my opinion. Will just have to see


The setup with the ridge is clear as day. Not to mention that the ridge has been entrenched over us all Summer long. At this point I think it's safe to say that the Bahamas and some point from the Keys to Jacksonville is going to deal with 99L. The only question is how strong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1845 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:39 am

Anywhere from Texas to Florida, it's all going to depend on how strong the ridge that's the big player and with it only being Tuesday we won't know till Saturday
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1846 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:41 am

The 06Z HWRF displays an extremely favorable upper-tropospheric pattern for TC intensification as an upper-level anticyclone is anchored overhead and a pronounced anticyclonic outflow jet sets up shop to the east of 99L. The strong mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of 99L would likely send the potential TC into FL if the run were to last beyond 126 hours. While the HWRF is notorious for intensifying systems too quickly, this storm is definitely one to keep an eye on, particularly for residents in the Bahamas and FL, in my opinion.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1847 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:41 am

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1848 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:44 am

Looks to be moving NNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1849 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:44 am

Cat 3 at 00z Sunday morning just east of the Northern Bahamas heading W to WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1850 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:45 am

Kingarabian wrote:Looks to be moving NNW.


Watch the loop...you'll see it heads NW for a while and then bends on a more westerly heading.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1851 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:46 am

Again, I would like to encourage folks to keep an eye on the ensemble member forecasts. For now, it seems the large majority of the ensemble members from the Euro, GFS, and Canadian models are bending 99L back west toward the northern Bahamas and FL at the end of the run. It is important to remember that all these forecasts depend on TC genesis, which has not occurred yet, and still may never occur.

With that being said, everyone should review their hurricane preparedness plans and have their supplies ready. It is August folks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1852 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:51 am

Compared to the 00z HWRF, the 6Z is more N and E at the end of the run. But towards the end of the run it looks like it's really trending west. Oh and it has winds of 117kts. Phew.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1853 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:51 am

When was the last time there was a storm in this general area with a ridge like that?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1854 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:52 am

HWRF has been very consistent over the past three runs with track and intensity. The final location and intensity are very similar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1855 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:57 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
06z SFWMD...
Image
06z Intensity...
Image
06z... Don't like the TVCN Consensus over me...


The popcorn convection and low level structure seem to be signaling that 99L isn't going to remain a harmless wave much longer..

And since with development we usually get a french curve poleward motion in the track the current model consensus north of the islands into the Bahamas is fairly likely to verify.

That final turn back west towards Florida will be hard to forecast given the ridge dynamics.

As for the intensity forecast that has not been thoroughly been addressed yet.
Anyone remember a weakening system that was trapped under a ridge parked over the southeastern ConUS?
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1856 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:58 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF has been very consistent over the past three runs with track and intensity. The final location and intensity are very similar.


Its a full degree north latitude of the last run, but intensity is about the same.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1857 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:59 am

Think the slight northeastward shift on that run can be attributed to the stronger Fiona to its north versus previous runs / other models with Fiona weaker and well over or past Florida at that point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1858 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:59 am

I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1859 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:05 am

RL3AO wrote:I do think people laugh off the HWRF a little too much. It's gotten pretty good. For example, here's the intensity error from 2015 between the GFS, Euro, HWRF, and NHC.

Image


Thanks for sharing this. When you posted this I presumed that although the absolute error was relatively low, there would likely be a large positive bias, but this isn't the case either. Glad to see the hard work by the good people working on the HWRF is paying off.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#1860 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:05 am

Hi all,

I wanted to post a note here about model threads and how they should be used and steer a lot of the discussion back into the discussion thread unless it's directly pertaining to a model run.

The idea of the model thread is a place to hold saved model graphics (no direct image links please) and discussions or questions pertaining directly to a model run. One liners, random thoughts, and other posts will be removed to try and keep these threads strictly on topic and more useful in the future when looking back at a storm and model performance. Please understand that the desire is not to squash conversation but to keep these threads very technical in nature. If you have doubts about a post then the discussion thread is probably the best place to put it.

Thanks for your cooperation.
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