ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for
development of this system during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern
Leeward Island and the Greater Antilles. Large-scale conditions
could become more conducive later this week while the system moves
near Hispaniola and then the southeastern and central Bahamas. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this disturbance later this morning. Interests from the
islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and
possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over these areas
regardless of tropical cyclone formation. Please consult products
issued by your local meteorological offices for further details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Dean4Storms]

Hmm.... I'm not seeing any surface outflows racing away from the convection and some turning although still weak. I don't think it would take much to get at least a TD forming with the very organized look of the PW imagery and the outflow aloft. With the new burst of convection this morning I think NHC needs to go ahead and send the Recon.

[RL3AO]

Still fascinated by the percentages. Almost seems like they're favoring development within 48 hours or else it may wait until days 6 to 8.

[Blown Away]

Confident about the track... NHC slowed it down in 5 day...

[msbee]

Hmm hoping this sucker doesn't blow up right over us the way Gonzalo did a couple of years ago

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/768054990191595520




Recon is a go.

[tolakram]

live visible.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-57&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Gustywind]

Hmm hoping this sucker doesn't blow up right over us the way Gonzalo did a couple of years ago

Hi Barbara glad to see you back in the buisness here like me . Hope that this scenario will not happen. If we can have some beneficial rains i will be ok as many of our other neighbours in the E and NE carib islands. Anyway, let's wait and see and monitor carefully the progress of 99L.

[NDG]

I'm surprised the NHC kept their 5 day forecast at 60%, I guess they are still giving the GFS some weight into their forecast.

[abajan]

Barbados has been reporting northerly winds this morning, no question it has had a broad circulation for days now but the question is if the Recon will find a well defined LLC. No such evidence this morning, IMO. Recon will answer it for us.

Yep. Gonna be a hot day here for sure (possibly with a couple thunderstorms). I'm in the SW of the island and expect any thunderstorms to occur a few miles east of my location, sometime during the mid-afternoon, assuming they form at all, because moisture levels play an important part.

[caribsue]

Barbados has been reporting northerly winds this morning, no question it has had a broad circulation for days now but the question is if the Recon will find a well defined LLC. No such evidence this morning, IMO. Recon will answer it for us.

Yep. Gonna be a hot day here for sure (possibly with a couple thunderstorms). I'm in the SW of the island and expect any thunderstorms to occur a few miles east of my location, sometime during the mid-afternoon, assuming they form at all, because moisture levels play an important part.

Morning All.....I can also tell you that whilst walking along the beach this morning in an area called Carlisle Bay in Barbados (in south west), boats were facing both north and south, and the sea on the entire south coast looks like a pond right now.

[msbee]

Hmm hoping this sucker doesn't blow up right over us the way Gonzalo did a couple of years ago

Hi Barbara glad to see you back in the buisness here like me . Hope that this scenario will not happen. If we can have some beneficial rains i will be ok as many of our other neighbours in the E and NE carib islands. Anyway, let's wait and see and monitor carefully the progress of 99L.

HI Gusty, yep, we are back in the business..tis the season LOL
waiting and watching and a little worrying.
Take care
Barbara

[Gustywind]

Hmm hoping this sucker doesn't blow up right over us the way Gonzalo did a couple of years ago

Hi Barbara glad to see you back in the buisness here like me . Hope that this scenario will not happen. If we can have some beneficial rains i will be ok as many of our other neighbours in the E and NE carib islands. Anyway, let's wait and see and monitor carefully the progress of 99L.

HI Gusty, yep, we are back in the business..tis the season LOL
waiting and watching and a little worrying.
Take care
Barbara

Oh thanks Barbara!
Yeah we're in the same boat lol monitoring 99L. Take care too.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/768064753570832385




.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 16.4°N 56.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[alienstorm]

http://imageshack.com/a/img921/8523/t6ZA6S.jpg

Looks like the there is a circulation there.

[TheStormExpert]

Great, now the local media jumps on the hype train. Too soon!

[cycloneye]

Plane ready to depart from St Croix.

URNT15 KNHC 231309
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 02 20160823
130000 1742N 06448W 0153 ///// 0144 +272 +207 000000 000 /// /// 23
130030 1742N 06448W 0153 ///// 0145 +277 +208 000000 000 /// /// 23
130100 1742N 06448W 0153 ///// 0145 +280 +208 000000 000 /// /// 23
130130 1742N 06448W 0153 ///// 0144 +280 +208 000000 000 /// /// 23
130200 1742N 06448W 0153 ///// 0145 +284 +207 000000 000 /// /// 23
130230 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +285 +207 000000 000 /// /// 23
130300 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +285 +206 000000 000 /// /// 23
130330 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +289 +206 000000 000 /// /// 23
130400 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0144 +285 +206 000000 000 /// /// 23
130430 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0142 +288 +205 000000 000 /// /// 23
130500 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0142 +289 +204 000000 000 /// /// 23
130530 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0144 +290 +203 000000 000 /// /// 23
130600 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +293 +203 000000 000 /// /// 23
130630 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +296 +203 000000 000 /// /// 23
130700 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +295 +202 000000 000 /// /// 23
130730 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0146 +300 +202 000000 000 /// /// 23
130800 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +300 +202 000000 000 /// /// 23
130830 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0145 +292 +202 000000 000 /// /// 23
130900 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0144 +276 +204 000000 000 /// /// 23
130930 1742N 06448W 0151 ///// 0143 +271 +211 000000 000 /// /// 23
$$

[Javlin]

MIMIC still looks a skirt N of the Islands http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

The next UL is over British Columbia abit vigorous maybe 4-5 days out from the N.Atlantic seaboard but the pull effect of the one out there now seems to stop at 40'N http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Timing timing ............

[gatorcane]

Atlantic wide shot, MDR quite active and 99L gradually getting its act together: