ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Plane departs.

URNT15 KNHC 231319
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 03 20160823
131000 1742N 06448W 0150 ///// 0144 +269 +213 000000 000 /// /// 23
131030 1742N 06448W 0147 ///// 0144 +267 +216 000000 000 /// /// 23
131100 1742N 06448W 0146 ///// 0145 +269 +220 000000 000 /// /// 23
131130 1742N 06449W 0142 ///// 0144 +265 +218 000000 000 /// /// 23
131200 1742N 06449W 0138 00004 0144 +265 +218 000000 000 /// /// 03
131230 1742N 06449W 0133 00006 0143 +271 +215 000000 000 /// /// 03
131300 1742N 06449W 0135 00006 0143 +275 +215 000000 000 /// /// 03
131330 1742N 06449W 0134 00001 0137 +268 +215 043001 002 /// /// 03
131400 1742N 06448W 0148 00001 0133 +258 +221 057003 006 /// /// 03
131430 1742N 06447W 9936 00176 0137 +246 +213 077004 006 /// /// 03
131500 1742N 06445W 9697 00386 0133 +234 +201 068008 009 /// /// 03
131530 1742N 06444W 9315 00738 0135 +212 +171 080011 013 /// /// 03
131600 1742N 06442W 8890 01143 0139 +180 +153 099013 014 /// /// 03
131630 1742N 06441W 8561 01467 0143 +156 +140 098011 014 /// /// 03
131700 1743N 06439W 8230 01803 0143 +139 +123 074009 010 /// /// 03
131730 1743N 06438W 7929 02117 0139 +125 +110 084010 011 /// /// 03
131800 1743N 06436W 7627 02442 0136 +108 +093 100013 013 /// /// 03
131830 1742N 06435W 7390 02705 0136 +092 +087 092014 015 /// /// 03
131900 1742N 06433W 7165 02964 //// +080 //// 094012 014 /// /// 05
131930 1742N 06432W 6945 03223 0115 +077 +069 082016 016 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying to 99L. Will it find a closed circulation is the question.

[gatorcane]

Little shear in the Bahamas:

[Weatherboy1]

This is going to be very interesting ... and the next couple of model cycles are really going to tell the tale. We're close to the 5-day window where the modelling gets more accurate. So I think we'll have a much better idea about where 99 could be headed in the next 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231329
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 04 20160823
132000 1741N 06430W 6742 03527 //// +059 //// 081017 018 /// /// 05
132030 1741N 06428W 6571 03682 0105 +061 +011 098019 021 /// /// 03
132100 1741N 06427W 6384 03918 0083 +069 -085 094020 021 /// /// 03
132130 1740N 06425W 6251 04096 0051 +082 -212 087015 019 /// /// 03
132200 1740N 06423W 6111 04282 0048 +074 -299 078012 014 /// /// 03
132230 1740N 06422W 5984 04446 0043 +062 -339 066013 014 /// /// 03
132300 1739N 06420W 5862 04610 0037 +052 -352 069011 013 /// /// 03
132330 1739N 06418W 5740 04784 0045 +037 -323 080010 011 /// /// 03
132400 1738N 06417W 5622 04953 0050 +023 -326 078011 012 /// /// 03
132430 1738N 06415W 5508 05121 0053 +013 -342 082013 013 /// /// 03
132500 1738N 06413W 5413 05266 0282 +002 -354 086013 013 /// /// 03
132530 1737N 06411W 5310 05416 0290 -004 -336 094015 015 /// /// 03
132600 1737N 06410W 5212 05569 0304 -014 -334 085014 015 /// /// 03
132630 1737N 06408W 5130 05697 0312 -021 -336 070015 016 /// /// 03
132700 1736N 06406W 5039 05838 0323 -030 -339 059016 017 /// /// 03
132730 1736N 06404W 4981 05932 0330 -039 -328 059018 018 /// /// 03
132800 1735N 06402W 4971 05948 0331 -040 -315 060018 018 /// /// 03
132830 1735N 06400W 4974 05941 0330 -040 -320 065018 018 /// /// 03
132900 1734N 06358W 4974 05943 0331 -040 -344 073018 019 /// /// 03
132930 1734N 06356W 4975 05940 0330 -040 -363 075018 018 014 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Zoomed in view, feeling those warmer SSTs as it gets closer to the islands:

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231339
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 05 20160823
133000 1733N 06354W 4975 05938 0328 -040 -372 074016 017 /// /// 03
133030 1733N 06351W 4976 05938 0332 -043 -369 081014 016 014 000 03
133100 1732N 06349W 4970 05955 0337 -040 -361 082015 016 014 000 00
133130 1732N 06346W 4970 05956 0337 -044 -360 085016 016 014 000 03
133200 1731N 06344W 4970 05957 0338 -045 -362 088016 017 014 000 03
133230 1731N 06342W 4970 05955 0338 -044 -355 087016 016 014 000 03
133300 1730N 06339W 4968 05957 0337 -043 -350 088017 017 014 000 03
133330 1730N 06337W 4971 05953 0337 -044 -353 092016 017 014 000 03
133400 1729N 06334W 4972 05951 0337 -045 -358 095017 017 014 000 03
133430 1729N 06332W 4970 05958 0339 -045 -369 094017 017 012 000 03
133500 1728N 06330W 4970 05956 0338 -042 -394 094017 018 010 001 00
133530 1727N 06327W 4970 05955 0337 -042 -419 095017 018 009 000 03
133600 1727N 06325W 4970 05955 0334 -040 -392 097015 016 012 001 00
133630 1726N 06323W 4976 05937 0330 -040 -356 099015 015 007 001 00
133700 1726N 06320W 4976 05938 0330 -040 -363 095016 017 012 000 03
133730 1725N 06318W 4976 05938 0330 -040 -359 097018 019 005 000 00
133800 1725N 06315W 4977 05937 0330 -040 -366 094018 019 006 000 00
133830 1724N 06313W 4976 05937 0330 -040 -360 095019 019 011 000 00
133900 1724N 06311W 4975 05940 0330 -040 -372 093020 020 005 000 00
133930 1723N 06308W 4976 05937 0330 -040 -379 095021 021 005 000 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

continues to slowly organize. I notice what appears to be a couple smaller vorts rotating around in there. Recon is going to doing a lot of zig zagging I imagine.

[Gustywind]

continues to slowly organize. I notice what appears to be a couple smaller vorts rotating around in there. Recon is going to doing a lot of zig zagging I imagine.

Very interresting Aric thnaks for posting that. Where do you see these small vorts?

[Aric Dunn]

if you watch its actually being pulled back towards the convection. its not exactly overly well defined but it is there.

[Gustywind]

if you watch its actually being pulled back towards the convection. its not exactly overly well defined but it is there.

thanks my friend.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231349
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 06 20160823
134000 1723N 06306W 4976 05938 0330 -040 -386 095020 021 009 001 00
134030 1722N 06304W 4977 05936 0329 -040 -406 093020 021 004 000 00
134100 1722N 06301W 4975 05940 0331 -040 -414 095019 020 008 000 00
134130 1721N 06259W 4976 05938 0330 -040 -381 097019 019 005 000 00
134200 1720N 06257W 4976 05938 0331 -040 -370 098019 019 006 000 03
134230 1720N 06254W 4976 05940 0331 -040 -383 097018 019 009 000 03
134300 1719N 06252W 4976 05937 0330 -037 -383 092018 018 012 000 00
134330 1719N 06250W 4976 05937 0331 -040 -387 094018 020 022 000 03
134400 1718N 06247W 4970 05953 0335 -040 -373 096022 023 /// /// 03
134430 1718N 06245W 4968 05955 0335 -040 -357 093023 023 /// /// 03
134500 1717N 06243W 4971 05952 0336 -038 -354 093023 023 /// /// 03
134530 1717N 06240W 4969 05956 0338 -035 -292 093023 023 /// /// 03
134600 1716N 06238W 5018 05884 0339 -031 -276 093021 023 /// /// 03
134630 1716N 06235W 5126 05720 0331 -030 -166 102023 023 011 000 00
134700 1716N 06233W 5247 05535 0319 -022 -205 112023 023 006 000 00
134730 1715N 06230W 5361 05365 0307 -020 -112 112025 025 005 000 00
134800 1715N 06228W 5478 05187 0293 -013 -126 111025 026 008 001 00
134830 1714N 06226W 5590 05026 0122 -006 -080 111028 028 005 000 00
134900 1714N 06223W 5699 04871 0137 -002 -090 109026 028 006 000 03
134930 1713N 06221W 5813 04711 0146 +006 -179 113021 024 005 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

if you watch its actually being pulled back towards the convection. its not exactly overly well defined but it is there.

thanks my friend.

I would imagine the next few hours we will see a large burst of convection right over that area. how long that last idk. still fairly disorganized but much much better than yesterday.

[Aric Dunn]

its much more clear here...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

[Nederlander]

Multiple vorts indeed, but the dominant circulation feature seems to be around 15N, 57W

[Aric Dunn]

Multiple vorts indeed, but the dominant circulation feature seems to be around 15N, 57W

Thats a mid level vort produced from the overnight convection. use RGB loop and pay attention to the yellow ish color low level clouds they are going right through that feature. the likely candidate would be there area I circled at least for now. likely get more vorts forming and dying.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231359
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20160823
135000 1713N 06218W 5925 04555 0142 +015 -192 124018 020 005 000 00
135030 1713N 06216W 5997 04465 0154 +024 -180 130017 018 007 000 03
135100 1712N 06214W 6246 04140 0150 +048 -171 147015 017 /// /// 03
135130 1712N 06211W 6501 03813 0146 +070 -107 155017 018 /// /// 03
135200 1711N 06209W 6748 03504 0141 +093 -131 145018 018 /// /// 03
135230 1711N 06207W 6943 03259 0133 +108 -140 150017 018 007 000 00
135300 1711N 06205W 6966 03229 0128 +110 -139 150017 017 008 001 03
135330 1710N 06202W 6958 03239 0128 +110 -142 152017 017 008 001 00
135400 1710N 06200W 6954 03241 0127 +110 -170 149017 017 008 001 00
135430 1709N 06158W 6958 03236 0128 +108 -132 150017 017 009 000 03
135500 1709N 06156W 6958 03236 0124 +112 -204 148017 017 009 001 00
135530 1709N 06153W 6958 03238 0125 +111 -217 149016 016 017 000 03
135600 1708N 06151W 6957 03238 0123 +113 -205 148015 016 /// /// 03
135630 1708N 06149W 6958 03235 0122 +113 -175 147015 016 /// /// 03
135700 1707N 06146W 6957 03239 0126 +110 -172 142015 016 /// /// 03
135730 1707N 06144W 6955 03240 0126 +110 -182 144015 015 /// /// 03
135800 1707N 06141W 6956 03240 0131 +110 -166 147014 015 /// /// 03
135830 1706N 06139W 7104 03080 0149 +116 -149 126014 014 014 001 00
135900 1706N 06137W 7318 02835 0147 +134 -068 117014 014 010 000 00
135930 1706N 06135W 7565 02549 0149 +144 -028 128011 014 007 001 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Multiple vorts indeed, but the dominant circulation feature seems to be around 15N, 57W

Thats a mid level vort produced from the overnight convection. use RGB loop and pay attention to the yellow ish color low level clouds they are going right through that feature. the likely candidate would be there area I circled at least for now. likely get more vorts forming and dying.

I agree, that's just a MLC, lower vorticity is further north & west.