Florida Weather

[gatorcane]

Very interesting and important blog that Dr Jeff Masters made about the Tampa area and is called "Extreme 'Grey Swan' Hurricanes in Tampa Bay: a Potential Future Catastrophe".

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... #commentop

Very interesting indeed. Out of all the U.S. cities, I think Tampa Bay has to be one of the cities that would suffer the most damage from a big hurricane given the geography and population. Let us hope something like the "grey swan" hurricane doesn't happen anytime soon or better yet, ever. That would be one horrifically sad day for Tampa

[gatorcane]

noticed several mentions of the Bermuda High in the NWS Miami discussions this summer...it's been quite dominant this summer so we will see if it sticks around for the main hurricane season for us which starts in a few weeks in South Florida (end-August through end-October).

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
South Florida is likely to be affected by the inverted trough
associated with a strong, fast-moving tropical wave that will
cross south of the Hispaniola and Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday. This
should bring best East Coast rain chances in quite a while. More
relatively dry air is forecast to arrive by late next week.
Overall, the Bermuda High to the northeast will continue to
dominate, providing persistent east southeasterly flow, with
periods of enhanced moisture and Saharan air pivoted around the
periphery of the ridge and across South Florida through the
period.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Patrick99]

Anyone get any decent rain over the weekend? Broken record here in SFL......hot and sunny, no rain.

[gatorcane]

We are now entering the busiest hurricane months for South Florida.

South Florida hurricane climatology document from NWS Miami:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... SoFLTC.pdf

Snippet from article:

Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland

[gatorcane]

NWS Tampa article: "July 2016 Ends Up Being One of the Warmest Months On Record":
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/tbw/To ... 6final.pdf

[gatorcane]

Not sure about anybody else in South Florida, but this dry and hot pattern with all the storms pushed to Naples area every day is getting really old. Nearly the entire summer since end-of-June has been this way. Looks like maybe this weekend we will get a temporary break for a change but after that, back to the dry, dustier, hot weather:

NWS Miami snippet:

Early next week models continue to show low pressure developing
over northeast Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile high pressure over the
western Atlantic will strengthen and lift northward drifting this
low pressure into the Florida panhandle by mid week. If this
trend continues, this strong high pressure will limit the
potential for showers and storms and bring above normal
temperatures over the area into next week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[MetroMike]

Not sure about anybody else in South Florida, but this dry and hot pattern with all the storms pushed to Naples area every day is getting really old. Nearly the entire summer since end-of-June has been this way. Looks like maybe this weekend we will get a temporary break for a change but after that, back to the dry, dustier, hot weather:

NWS Miami snippet:

Early next week models continue to show low pressure developing
over northeast Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile high pressure over the
western Atlantic will strengthen and lift northward drifting this
low pressure into the Florida panhandle by mid week. If this
trend continues, this strong high pressure will limit the
potential for showers and storms and bring above normal
temperatures over the area into next week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

I feel for you there. In Tampa area it was like that mid-June to Mid July. Bad enough the Hurricane season is a snooze fest now.

[gatorcane]

We are finally getting a solid line of thunderstorms in the evening from the west...I can count the number of times on one hand we have see these late day storms from the west across SE Florida this summer, courtesy of a very strong Bermuda High pushing the activity west to the Naples are each day.

[CourierPR]

I am a native of Ft. Lauderdale and this is more like the summers I recall after living here 62 years.

[TheStormExpert]

Can't remember the last time I posted in this topic since it's been a dull, boring copy and paste summer with all of whatever thunderstorm action develops being pushed well inland and over onto the extreme West Coast of Florida the majority of the summer so far. Not even last summer was this bad in terms of lack of rainfall! The latest drought monitor from last week shows Abnormally Dry conditions have developed along the East Coast of Florida thanks to such a strong Bermuda High in the midst of the rainy season.

[gatorcane]

Without a doubt this is the strongest Bermuda High we have seen across SE Florida during the summer rainy season months in quite sometime. As we move deeper into August and September, our attention will turn to the east...

[cycloneye]

Pouring heavy.

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/763158703927353344

[FireRat]

Man we got creamed today by an epic thunderstorm in much of northwest Broward. Trees came down in several neighborhoods and even some debris was blown around by winds about 70 mph, I was driving at the time west on commercial blvd at 4 pm tuesday and it was like a low-end hurricane, worse than the video above. Sure made up for the boring summer wx here, a 7 in one kind of storm lol.

[psyclone]

looks like a great afternoon for vigorous storm development near the west coast. classic seabreeze action. I just love these set ups.

[gatorcane]

Lots of rolling thunder with storms moving onshore this evening across South Florida. Finally, I think the stagnant, desert-like, dusty, stifling hot weather pattern that has dominated the area since late June may finally be breaking a bit as one would expect as we head into mid August. We also really start to watch the tropics as we head into the heart of the season.

[SouthFloridian92]

Been pretty dry here in Sebring for the most part. We do get some little blobs of thunderstorms in the area every once in a while but they're short lived. Not as rainy as it should be. I'm bout ready for Autumn now. Sick of the hot weather.

[chaser1]

Been pretty dry here in Sebring for the most part. We do get some little blobs of thunderstorms in the area every once in a while but they're short lived. Not as rainy as it should be. I'm bout ready for Autumn now. Sick of the hot weather.

Yep, its been pretty hot and quiet up here in the Orlando area not that far north of you. By the looks of the surface and steering flow, high pressure seems in place to keep our flow primarily from the east. Of course, a brisk easterly flow is NOT something Florida wants in place with Tropical systems lurking to our east and south. Of course where you are in Sebring and myself in the Orlando area, its just HOT regardless what direction the summer wind is from lol!

[gatorcane]

Well like last year, been another summer with a pretty persistent east wind pattern. This summer seems even hotter and with more of an entrenched east wind pattern than last summer. We just don't get the storms here like we usually do in the summers. They are all getting pushed to Naples just about every day since the summer started but also they seem to be lacking at night and in the mornings for the most part. The pattern has broken here and there but only a handful of times. It's really like a desert out there across South Florida with so little rain. It's not like the weather patterns I have seen here in a while. Last year El Nino helped against Erika causing problems, but this year we have no El Nino. Watching 99l (future Hermine) closely as this may be the one that finally breaks the hurricane drought across Florida. I'll gladly take the rain and maybe a TS but let's hope we don't see anything more intense.

[gatorcane]

Been very calm and tranquil along the coast of SE (and presumably E Coast as well) of Florida past several days. No storms around, some clouds here and there. Could it be the "calm" before the storm?

[Patrick99]

All summer, we'd been mentioning that this persistent strong SE/Bermuda High pattern could be trouble in August and September. We'll see about would-be Hermine.

It really has been day after day, week after week, month after month now here in SE Florida....very few afternoon storms and dry easterly flow, punctuated by the occasional tropical wave/upper low - that's how we have received most of our rainfall this summer.