ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

This would likely be a very rare double punch on both the east and gulf coast. Interesting for sure.

He does have Fiona remnants regenerating and hitting the Brownsville general area as a 55kt storm by Tuesday.

[SoupBone]

For what it's worth Bastardi has an interesting solution.

Remnants of Fiona cross over Florida into the gulf, need to be watched.

99 moves very close to the coast, making a glancing landfall in southern NC as a cat 3.

I can see why Joe B. forecasts a North Carolina hit from 99L.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768081797733318656

How would this setup happen? Seemed to be a high degree of probability to be a GoM system with the ridge. Is it now predicting a slight weakness in the ridge nearing the Carolinas?

[Nimbus]

The inflow looked better defined in the southern end of the system, might just be elongated.
Glad we have recon in there.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231439
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20160823
143000 1650N 05952W 9769 00305 0113 +245 +233 025011 012 010 000 00
143030 1650N 05951W 9769 00306 0114 +244 +233 021011 012 011 000 00
143100 1650N 05949W 9769 00306 0114 +244 +229 021011 012 010 000 03
143130 1650N 05948W 9769 00305 0114 +245 +228 022012 012 010 000 00
143200 1649N 05946W 9770 00305 0114 +245 +230 018011 012 011 000 00
143230 1649N 05944W 9770 00306 0114 +246 +232 018010 011 009 001 00
143300 1649N 05943W 9770 00305 0114 +242 +236 012010 011 010 000 00
143330 1649N 05941W 9768 00307 0114 +245 +233 021011 011 009 000 00
143400 1648N 05940W 9770 00305 0114 +245 +236 020011 012 009 000 00
143430 1648N 05938W 9769 00305 0113 +245 +233 018011 012 009 000 03
143500 1648N 05936W 9769 00305 0113 +246 +232 017011 011 009 000 03
143530 1648N 05935W 9772 00302 0113 +245 +237 008010 011 009 000 00
143600 1647N 05933W 9768 00305 0112 +245 +237 004010 011 010 000 00
143630 1647N 05931W 9767 00305 0111 +244 +236 008011 011 011 000 00
143700 1647N 05930W 9770 00304 0112 +244 +237 004011 012 010 000 00
143730 1646N 05928W 9770 00305 0114 +245 +237 005011 011 010 001 00
143800 1646N 05927W 9770 00305 0114 +245 +236 008012 013 011 000 00
143830 1646N 05925W 9768 00307 0114 +245 +238 010012 012 010 000 00
143900 1646N 05923W 9768 00306 0114 +245 +240 008011 012 011 000 00
143930 1645N 05922W 9770 00306 0114 +245 +236 012012 012 010 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

The inflow looked better defined in the southern end of the system, might just be elongated.
Glad we have recon in there.

multiple vorts likely. recon show at least at the moment the clear vort i circled earlier has no surface reflection yet or its to weak that recon would have to fly right threw it to see.

[NDG]

For what it's worth Bastardi has an interesting solution.

Remnants of Fiona cross over Florida into the gulf, need to be watched.

99 moves very close to the coast, making a glancing landfall in southern NC as a cat 3.

There goes his mid Atlantic/NE US bias
But on a serious note, I'm surprised he's going against the Euro solution, which has the remnants of Fiona going into the GOM, BTW.

[centuryv58]

For what it's worth Bastardi has an interesting solution.

Remnants of Fiona cross over Florida into the gulf, need to be watched.

99 moves very close to the coast, making a glancing landfall in southern NC as a cat 3.

There goes his mid Atlantic/NE US bias
But on a serious note, I'm surprised he's going against the Euro solution, which has the remnants of Fiona going into the GOM, BTW.

Will it be a battle between several private weather companies (with secret model enhancements)??

[DESTRUCTION5]

For what it's worth Bastardi has an interesting solution.

Remnants of Fiona cross over Florida into the gulf, need to be watched.

99 moves very close to the coast, making a glancing landfall in southern NC as a cat 3.

There goes his mid Atlantic/NE US bias
But on a serious note, I'm surprised he's going against the Euro solution, which has the remnants of Fiona going into the GOM, BTW.

Will it be a battle between several private weather companies (with secret model enhancements)??

Id feel pretty good if I lived in the Carolinas considering JB hasn't nailed a forecast since the Regan Admin.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231449
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20160823
144000 1645N 05920W 9770 00306 0115 +245 +238 009012 012 010 000 03
144030 1645N 05918W 9770 00307 0116 +245 +240 007013 013 011 000 00
144100 1645N 05917W 9768 00307 0117 +245 +240 013013 014 011 000 00
144130 1644N 05915W 9768 00310 0117 +245 +239 019013 013 011 000 00
144200 1644N 05914W 9768 00310 0117 +245 +237 026013 014 011 000 00
144230 1643N 05912W 9770 00308 0117 +246 +236 033012 013 011 000 00
144300 1642N 05911W 9772 00307 0117 +249 +234 030011 012 010 000 00
144330 1642N 05909W 9765 00311 0117 +245 +235 036011 012 010 000 00
144400 1642N 05908W 9769 00311 0119 +245 +235 039012 012 010 000 00
144430 1641N 05906W 9770 00308 0118 +245 +236 043011 012 011 000 00
144500 1641N 05905W 9773 00305 0118 +245 +238 044010 011 013 000 00
144530 1641N 05903W 9766 00312 0118 +245 +236 044012 012 011 000 00
144600 1641N 05902W 9770 00310 0119 +245 +235 035012 012 011 001 00
144630 1641N 05900W 9766 00312 0119 +245 +235 035011 011 012 000 00
144700 1640N 05858W 9769 00311 0119 +245 +231 038011 012 012 000 03
144730 1640N 05857W 9770 00311 0120 +245 +229 041012 013 011 000 00
144800 1640N 05855W 9774 00307 0120 +246 +228 034012 013 012 000 00
144830 1639N 05854W 9768 00312 0121 +245 +229 037011 011 013 000 00
144900 1639N 05852W 9768 00312 0121 +244 +232 043011 011 012 000 00
144930 1638N 05851W 9769 00312 0121 +242 +233 043011 012 012 000 03
$$

[gatorcane]

I see an LLC on the NW side of the convection, LLC and MLC not aligned at the moment. Looks like it will skim the Lesser Antilles to the north.

Looks like it is trying to wrap come convection around it, seems to be gradually organizing if you ask me but when it gets north of Hispaniola in a couple of days is where we could really see it organize.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

I really doubt they will find a well defined LLC, nothing but a broad circulation is what I'm thinking. Better chances of an LLC closing off tonight or tomorrow morning, IMO.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see an LLC on the NW side of the convection, LLC and MLC not aligned at the moment. Looks like it will skim the Lesser Antilles to the north.

Looks like it is trying to wrap come convection around it, seems to be gradually organizing if you ask me.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

No doubt that does not look like an eddy.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon heading towards this area. satellite is hard to discern but looks like another vort and the wind field seems to possibly fit.

[cycloneye]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Recon heading towards this area. satellite is hard to discern but looks like another vort and the wind field seems to possibly fit.

https://s9.postimg.io/a39yuwnqn/sfghndf ... jmhnfx.gif

LLC looks a little NW of there. Just my opinion though.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon heading towards this area. satellite is hard to discern but looks like another vort and the wind field seems to possibly fit.

[img]https://s9.postimg.io/a39yuwnqn/sfghndfgndfjxfyumujmhnfx.gif[/ig]

LLC looks a little NW of there. Just my opinion though.

I had previously mentioned that the Vort to the north of where recon is heading does not appear to be at the surface per the recon data they are following the wind directions. there is clearly multiple weak vorts in there. we shall see

[Aric Dunn]

RAMMB shifted the floater father south..

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231459
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 13 20160823
145000 1638N 05849W 9769 00312 0121 +241 +233 035012 012 012 000 00
145030 1637N 05848W 9771 00311 0121 +244 +230 030012 013 012 000 00
145100 1636N 05846W 9768 00313 0122 +245 +229 032012 012 012 000 00
145130 1635N 05845W 9770 00312 0122 +245 +229 031013 013 013 000 00
145200 1634N 05844W 9769 00313 0122 +244 +232 032012 013 013 000 00
145230 1633N 05843W 9768 00314 0123 +245 +233 042011 011 011 000 00
145300 1632N 05841W 9769 00313 0122 +245 +234 041011 011 012 000 00
145330 1631N 05840W 9770 00312 0122 +245 +232 042011 011 013 000 00
145400 1630N 05839W 9769 00313 0122 +244 +235 039011 012 014 000 00
145430 1629N 05837W 9772 00311 0123 +244 +236 037012 012 013 000 00
145500 1628N 05836W 9769 00314 0123 +245 +234 039012 012 015 000 00
145530 1627N 05835W 9766 00316 0123 +245 +226 048011 012 015 000 00
145600 1627N 05833W 9769 00314 0124 +245 +234 051010 011 016 000 00
145630 1626N 05832W 9769 00314 0124 +242 +236 044011 011 016 000 00
145700 1625N 05831W 9767 00317 0125 +239 +238 037012 013 016 000 01
145730 1624N 05829W 9764 00322 0126 +242 +234 045012 013 015 000 00
145800 1623N 05828W 9769 00316 0126 +245 +235 044011 011 015 000 00
145830 1623N 05826W 9770 00317 0127 +245 +235 043010 011 013 001 00
145900 1622N 05825W 9768 00318 0127 +243 +236 043010 010 014 001 00
145930 1622N 05823W 9766 00319 0127 +240 +238 045009 010 015 000 01
$$

[Aric Dunn]

looks like there is something to the south of where recon just passed by not sure why they turned away from it.. of course likely just a weak vort.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 231509
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20160823
150000 1621N 05822W 9772 00314 0127 +240 +238 045008 009 015 000 00
150030 1621N 05820W 9767 00319 0127 +240 +238 048008 009 014 000 00
150100 1620N 05819W 9771 00316 0128 +240 +237 054007 008 014 000 00
150130 1620N 05817W 9770 00316 0127 +240 +237 055007 008 013 000 00
150200 1619N 05816W 9768 00317 0127 +240 +237 050007 007 013 000 00
150230 1619N 05814W 9769 00317 0127 +240 +237 049007 007 013 000 00
150300 1619N 05813W 9768 00317 0126 +240 +238 042007 007 013 000 00
150330 1619N 05811W 9771 00313 0126 +240 +237 049007 008 014 000 00
150400 1619N 05809W 9769 00316 0126 +240 +237 061007 008 015 000 01
150430 1620N 05808W 9768 00317 0126 +243 +230 059009 009 014 000 00
150500 1620N 05806W 9769 00316 0126 +240 +237 060008 008 015 000 00
150530 1621N 05805W 9767 00317 0126 +240 +238 063007 008 015 002 00
150600 1621N 05803W 9769 00317 0127 +240 +236 064007 007 019 000 00
150630 1622N 05802W 9770 00316 0127 +240 +238 077006 006 017 001 05
150700 1622N 05800W 9765 00319 0127 +239 +237 081006 007 015 002 05
150730 1623N 05759W 9769 00316 //// +237 //// 074006 007 016 002 01
150800 1623N 05757W 9770 00316 //// +236 //// 072007 008 018 002 01
150830 1624N 05756W 9770 00316 0127 +236 //// 071006 007 022 005 01
150900 1624N 05754W 9768 00316 0127 +234 //// 081007 008 024 004 05
150930 1625N 05753W 9766 00318 //// +231 //// 080008 009 022 004 01
$$
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