TheStormExpert wrote:Joe B. is forecasting a major Cat.3 strike on North Carolina this is why.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768081797733318656
That's basically the 0z Euro shifted to the east.
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TheStormExpert wrote:Joe B. is forecasting a major Cat.3 strike on North Carolina this is why.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768081797733318656
BigB0882 wrote:My biggest concern at the moment is that the models will continue to see that ridge being strong and not breaking it down soon enough. That ridge has been persistent all summer so will it break down next week? I tend to doubt it. I also know models often underdo the ridges as you get beyond 3-4 days. Right now Louisiana would be saved as the models show this turning sharply north once in the Gulf but what if that turn is much more gradual or happens later? I can't imagine what this area would do. Has an area ever been hit by multiple natural disasters in a short period of time? I know someone mentioned 3 hurricanes hitting a rather small area in 1860 but of course you did not have the populations we have now.
gatorcane wrote:The latest HWRF and ECMWF looks in pretty close agreement on where this will be in 5 days. ECMWF shows a west then south of due-west turn into South Florida. It actually is more to the right (east) of the HWRF before the turn. HWRF doesn't go out far enough to know what it would do as far as Florida impacts but it seems to be turning it west also at the end also.
Personally I would bet on a ridge over the Carolinas being there with some kind of west turn.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
WeatherEmperor wrote:I would not be surprised if the models shift a bit further east. We have seen many systems in years past that pointed at Florida because of a strong ridge...only for that perfectly timed weakness to show up out of nowhere turning them north to the Carolina's for example. I think we need another 2-3 runs to show a solid run before the likelyhood of a Florida strike become very high. For now, I am just watching and waiting
TheStormExpert wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:I would not be surprised if the models shift a bit further east. We have seen many systems in years past that pointed at Florida because of a strong ridge...only for that perfectly timed weakness to show up out of nowhere turning them north to the Carolina's for example. I think we need another 2-3 runs to show a solid run before the likelyhood of a Florida strike become very high. For now, I am just watching and waiting
I agree, there is always something that swings through to bresk down these ridges epecially as we head into late August and September.
tolakram wrote:FYI,
I am deleting off topic posts. I will repost what I said earlier.
The idea of the model thread is a place to hold saved model graphics (no direct image links please) and discussions or questions pertaining directly to a model run. One liners, random thoughts, and other posts will be removed to try and keep these threads strictly on topic and more useful in the future when looking back at a storm and model performance. Please understand that the desire is not to squash conversation but to keep these threads very technical in nature. If you have doubts about a post then the discussion thread is probably the best place to put it.
Thanks for your cooperation.
GeneratorPower wrote:Above poster has a good point about too many things in the same place at the same time. With any model or forecast, the more complex, the more likely it is that some factor isn't well modeled and won't behave as expected.
rockyman wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Joe B. is forecasting a major Cat.3 strike on North Carolina this is why.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768081797733318656
That's basically the 0z Euro shifted to the east.
gatorcane wrote:GFS vs the ECMWF - epic battle with huge implications as far as impact. Looking forward to the upcoming runs to see which one caves is as they both can't be right.
Nederlander wrote:GFS takes it right over Hispaniola @ 42 hours...
Edit: Sorry.. Didn't see your post ^^
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