ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

Let's see if Fiona absorbs 99L in this run like last run.

[RL3AO]

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again. I'm very skeptical of the more southern track from the GFS. It's been wrong for days.

[chris_fit]

Still an open wave (if that) at 60 hours

[Aric Dunn]

right where the rest of models start deepening it.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like interaction with Fiona has begun.

[jasons2k]

Good reminder from this morning's write-up from Jeff Lindner:

This is a good time to remind everyone that following every run of each model and its exact track is not the best forecast approach…but instead use the longer range guidance for upper air steering patterns…the placement of trough and ridges and any trends in the guidance clustering or ensembles.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like less interaction with Fiona than the 06z. Fionas remnants are more N.

[Alyono]

FIX YOUR MODEL, UCCELINI!

[Tireman4]

Good reminder from this morning's write-up from Jeff Lindner:

This is a good time to remind everyone that following every run of each model and its exact track is not the best forecast approach…but instead use the longer range guidance for upper air steering patterns…the placement of trough and ridges and any trends in the guidance clustering or ensembles.

Amen. A thousand times amen. Way too many factors involved in the upcoming days.

he posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS slowing down already.. looks like another random extended period of slow erratic motion. then probably out to sea.

[chris_fit]

Almost seems like it's around the eastern tip of cuba - still nadda at 84 hours

[CrazyC83]

GFS is not budging...no development through 90 hours.

[gatorcane]

Ridge setup at 90 hours:

[Kingarabian]

Vort is less defined this run as well.

[Medtronic15]

[Alyono]

this MU run is a pile of cow dung. It has FIONA better defined than this system

[TexWx]

That's a northward turn for sure.

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS is still trying to pinch off a piece of the upper-level trough to the north of 99L, which induces westerly shear over the disturbance in the Bahamas. Likely a reason why development is minimal so far. The HWRF and Euro seem to be showing different upper-tropospheric evolutions.

image url upload

[chris_fit]

Looks like over central cuba @ 102

[NDG]

This is how much the GFS was underestimating the mid level ridge just a few days ago.