ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#681 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:17 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#682 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:RAMMB shifted the floater father south..


That could be critical... Hispaniola...

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#683 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:24 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 231519
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20160823
151000 1625N 05751W 9772 00313 0127 +233 //// 081009 010 024 005 01
151030 1626N 05750W 9771 00313 0128 +233 //// 078009 010 023 005 01
151100 1626N 05749W 9811 00277 0127 +231 //// 085009 010 020 005 01
151130 1627N 05747W 9836 00254 //// +230 //// 067008 008 017 004 01
151200 1628N 05745W 9842 00248 0124 +235 +231 082008 008 015 002 00
151230 1628N 05744W 9840 00249 0124 +235 +229 083007 008 014 001 03
151300 1629N 05743W 9840 00249 //// +235 //// 087007 007 012 000 01
151330 1629N 05741W 9840 00249 //// +235 //// 103006 006 012 001 05
151400 1630N 05740W 9837 00250 //// +236 //// 100005 006 012 000 05
151430 1630N 05738W 9840 00248 //// +236 //// 102006 007 014 000 05
151500 1630N 05736W 9843 00245 0121 +238 +231 097006 007 014 000 05
151530 1630N 05735W 9839 00248 0120 +242 +226 098007 007 012 000 00
151600 1630N 05733W 9843 00245 0121 +240 +229 098005 007 014 000 00
151630 1630N 05732W 9841 00245 0120 +241 +229 103005 006 013 001 00
151700 1629N 05730W 9841 00244 0120 +240 +232 096004 005 013 000 00
151730 1629N 05728W 9839 00250 0122 +239 +235 075005 006 012 000 00
151800 1629N 05727W 9840 00249 0123 +239 +236 062004 005 013 000 00
151830 1629N 05725W 9840 00248 //// +238 //// 037003 005 011 001 05
151900 1629N 05724W 9835 00254 //// +237 //// 034003 004 014 000 01
151930 1629N 05722W 9840 00249 //// +232 //// 267001 002 013 000 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#684 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:33 am

interesting...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#685 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:33 am

Some west to WSW winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 231529
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20160823
152000 1629N 05720W 9844 00244 //// +235 //// 233003 004 012 000 05
152030 1629N 05719W 9841 00245 //// +234 //// 223006 007 014 001 01
152100 1629N 05717W 9839 00248 //// +232 //// 217006 007 013 001 01
152130 1629N 05715W 9840 00245 //// +235 //// 213006 007 012 001 01
152200 1629N 05714W 9842 00244 //// +235 //// 209008 009 014 001 01
152230 1629N 05712W 9841 00244 //// +235 //// 205010 010 016 001 01
152300 1629N 05710W 9840 00245 //// +235 //// 204010 011 016 001 01
152330 1629N 05709W 9838 00248 0119 +235 +232 204013 014 013 001 01
152400 1629N 05707W 9836 00249 //// +235 //// 197015 016 013 001 01
152430 1629N 05705W 9839 00248 0120 +235 +232 178016 016 014 000 00
152500 1629N 05704W 9844 00244 0122 +234 +233 178017 019 016 000 01
152530 1629N 05702W 9843 00248 //// +232 //// 171020 020 019 000 01
152600 1630N 05701W 9843 00248 //// +230 //// 170020 021 019 000 01
152630 1630N 05659W 9846 00245 0125 +231 +227 167020 021 020 001 00
152700 1630N 05659W 9846 00245 0124 +233 +223 166020 021 020 000 00
152730 1630N 05656W 9834 00257 //// +230 //// 169019 020 018 000 01
152800 1630N 05654W 9839 00251 0126 +233 +228 176021 021 018 001 00
152830 1630N 05653W 9839 00254 0126 +232 +229 178020 021 016 000 01
152900 1630N 05651W 9839 00252 0126 +239 +221 172018 020 016 000 00
152930 1630N 05649W 9839 00255 0130 +231 +222 160018 019 017 000 01
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#686 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:35 am

Its still weak and dry and if this means a track with land interaction we might get lucky.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#687 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:37 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#688 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:37 am

Some decent mid level spin around 16N 57W. I think this will be the area to watch for a LLC to develop.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#689 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:40 am

Its trying. recon finding some evidence of something forming.though wont be enough for an upgrade of course. unless while they are out there its organizes. which has happened before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#690 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:42 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 231539
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 17 20160823
153000 1630N 05648W 9844 00250 0130 +232 +225 152018 020 017 001 05
153030 1629N 05647W 9832 00261 //// +230 //// 147015 016 016 001 05
153100 1627N 05648W 9843 00250 0129 +232 +224 147014 015 014 001 03
153130 1626N 05648W 9840 00252 0128 +232 +223 151013 014 014 001 00
153200 1624N 05648W 9839 00254 0129 +230 +225 154012 012 015 000 00
153230 1623N 05648W 9840 00254 0129 +233 +222 153012 012 014 000 00
153300 1621N 05648W 9842 00252 0130 +232 +225 150011 012 013 001 01
153330 1620N 05648W 9838 00257 0131 +234 +220 155010 011 014 000 00
153400 1618N 05648W 9838 00256 0130 +234 +223 150008 009 013 000 00
153430 1617N 05648W 9839 00256 0130 +234 +226 152008 008 012 000 00
153500 1615N 05648W 9843 00251 0129 +231 +229 149007 008 012 001 05
153530 1614N 05648W 9838 00256 0130 +230 +228 148006 006 011 001 00
153600 1612N 05648W 9840 00255 0131 +232 +228 152006 007 011 001 03
153630 1611N 05648W 9842 00252 0130 +236 +227 164008 009 014 000 03
153700 1611N 05646W 9842 00252 0130 +238 +223 155009 010 016 000 00
153730 1611N 05645W 9838 00257 0130 +238 +227 134011 012 014 001 00
153800 1611N 05643W 9839 00256 0130 +235 +233 133013 014 013 001 00
153830 1611N 05641W 9842 00255 0131 +235 +232 131012 014 013 000 00
153900 1611N 05640W 9840 00257 0132 +238 +233 134012 013 015 000 01
153930 1611N 05638W 9842 00254 0130 +238 +237 139011 011 014 000 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#691 Postby Nederlander » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:49 am

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Nederlander wrote:Multiple vorts indeed, but the dominant circulation feature seems to be around 15N, 57W


Thats a mid level vort produced from the overnight convection. use RGB loop and pay attention to the yellow ish color low level clouds they are going right through that feature. the likely candidate would be there area I circled at least for now. likely get more vorts forming and dying.


I agree, that's just a MLC, lower vorticity is further north & west.


MGC wrote:Some decent mid level spin around 16N 57W. I think this will be the area to watch for a LLC to develop.....MGC


Aric Dunn wrote:Its trying. recon finding some evidence of something forming.though wont be enough for an upgrade of course. unless while they are out there its organizes. which has happened before.


Ok so now I am officially lost. This is what I was thinking earlier, but was corrected in that this area was only a MLC.. Is this a case where the MLC is trying to work down toward the surface and the low level vort to the NW is becoming irrelevant?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#692 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:51 am

URNT15 KNHC 231549
AF309 01EEA INVEST HDOB 18 20160823
154000 1611N 05637W 9841 00254 0130 +241 +232 138011 012 016 000 00
154030 1611N 05635W 9840 00254 0130 +243 +222 137011 013 016 001 03
154100 1611N 05634W 9839 00255 0130 +242 +228 133014 015 016 001 03
154130 1611N 05632W 9842 00254 0130 +240 +234 129014 014 016 000 00
154200 1611N 05631W 9839 00255 0129 +242 +231 127015 015 015 000 00
154230 1611N 05629W 9843 00252 0130 +240 +235 130013 015 014 000 00
154300 1611N 05627W 9836 00257 0129 +241 +236 128013 014 014 000 00
154330 1611N 05626W 9840 00255 0130 +240 +238 127012 014 014 001 01
154400 1611N 05624W 9832 00263 //// +241 //// 129014 015 016 001 01
154430 1611N 05623W 9841 00256 0131 +245 +237 120014 015 017 000 00
154500 1611N 05621W 9842 00255 0131 +245 +237 119014 014 017 001 03
154530 1611N 05620W 9841 00256 0131 +245 +235 118015 015 018 001 03
154600 1611N 05618W 9842 00255 0131 +245 +237 119016 017 018 000 00
154630 1611N 05617W 9841 00255 0131 +245 +238 120017 018 019 000 03
154700 1611N 05615W 9840 00256 0131 +243 +238 122018 019 020 000 00
154730 1611N 05614W 9841 00256 0131 +241 +235 119020 020 022 000 00
154800 1611N 05612W 9845 00252 0131 +240 +231 122020 021 022 001 00
154830 1611N 05611W 9840 00256 0131 +241 +225 122020 021 021 001 00
154900 1611N 05609W 9841 00255 0131 +240 +227 125020 021 024 001 00
154930 1611N 05608W 9839 00255 0130 +240 +226 124020 020 023 001 00
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#693 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:53 am

Through 11:29am EDT:

Image

Through 11:39am EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon Discussion

#694 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:59 am

Planer found some west to westsouthwest winds.Waiting for more data. Who wants to continue the posting of Obs?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#695 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:59 am

Nederlander wrote:
NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Thats a mid level vort produced from the overnight convection. use RGB loop and pay attention to the yellow ish color low level clouds they are going right through that feature. the likely candidate would be there area I circled at least for now. likely get more vorts forming and dying.


I agree, that's just a MLC, lower vorticity is further north & west.


MGC wrote:Some decent mid level spin around 16N 57W. I think this will be the area to watch for a LLC to develop.....MGC


Aric Dunn wrote:Its trying. recon finding some evidence of something forming.though wont be enough for an upgrade of course. unless while they are out there its organizes. which has happened before.


Ok so now I am officially lost. This is what I was thinking earlier, but was corrected in that this area was only a MLC.. Is this a case where the MLC is trying to work down toward the surface and the low level vort to the NW is becoming irrelevant?



Recon is still north of that mid level feature which is quickly going away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#696 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:00 am

The area east of Martinique seems to have good convection and vorticity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#697 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:03 am

What is the main inhibitor for this system? The outflow is strengthening which will help this storm eventually. I think it still needs another 24 hours to get its act together though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon Discussion

#698 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:06 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#699 Postby Medtronic15 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:06 am

WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHING 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 56.5W TO 20.2N 61.3W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 348NM EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE FORMING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241400Z.
BT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#700 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 11:10 am

Red circle where recon found a disorganized vort... yellow mid level..


Image
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