ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 11:59am EDT:

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is now headed to sample the area south of the previously identified low-level vorticity maximum. Let's see if any westerly winds are found. I don't think it's there yet, but it's closer than I thought it would be.

[Mouton]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products:

The ridging seems to be on an east west line and projection to extend down to about 30N. For that reason, I don't see this storm getting above 30N for the next 6 days. The HARF says cat 4 at the end of that time, in the face of sinking drier air! While the SST past 60W are 30c, I think the cat 4 is overstated. Perhaps cat 1.

At that time I would project the wave/TS do be in the vicinity of 80W 25W, slightly north to the straits moving due W. While there will be some low ridging present there, a stronger storm will make its own way and begin to gain latitude unfortunately in favorable conditions. Next week will be could be very edgy or not if nothing happens.

We need 72 hours to make a final call but it does not look like the overall theater is going to change much over that time....need to see if it develops first of all and then if it ever deepens. If it gets anywhere near the HARFs low MB projection, all bets are off.

[Nederlander]

Red circle where recon found a disorganized vort... yellow mid level..

Thank you! That makes a lot more sense now. I was thinking they were under that MLC finding an LLC trying to form, but I see now how its uncoupled..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:09pm EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is now headed to sample the area south of the previously identified low-level vorticity maximum. Let's see if any westerly winds are found. I don't think it's there yet, but it's closer than I thought it would be.

As suspected looks like another vort is to the south near the MLC. recon might have to go on the south side of that to find west winds. I think there are some just not likely that expansive.

[xironman]

From the looks of the convection I don't think that feature is going away quite yet.

[abajan]

This site is supposed to show current conditions here and was working fine this morning but it's now showing old data. Anyway, from my own amateur observations, it appears we're getting generally light and variable winds between S and W.

[Gustywind]

This site is supposed to show current conditions here and was working fine this morning but it's now showing old data. Anyway, from my own amateur observations, it appears we're getting generally light and variable winds between S and W.

Thanks interresting Abajan . Keep us informed

[Aric Dunn]

well look at that.. we have two vorts .. most interesting thing the farther south one is under the MLC and appears to be more defined. with some west winds.. maybe an upgrade later today if trends continue ?

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon just found some veryyy light west winds south of where the MLC is. It is possible the MLC has worked its way to the surface, but the circulation still doesn't appear to be well-defined at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon just found some veryyy light west winds south of where the MLC is. It is possible the MLC has worked its way to the surface, but the circulation still doesn't appear to be well-defined at this time.

convection is now beginning to deepen in association with that southern vort and MLC... wonder how it will look when recon leaves.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon just found some veryyy light west winds south of where the MLC is. It is possible the MLC has worked its way to the surface, but the circulation still doesn't appear to be well-defined at this time.

convection is now beginning to deepen in association with that southern vort and MLC... wonder how it will look when recon leaves.

Yup! And there appears to be some additional inflow from the west side to help fuel the convection. Maybe the GFS was onto something with all the southerly short-term track forecast

[Aric Dunn]

Recon just found some veryyy light west winds south of where the MLC is. It is possible the MLC has worked its way to the surface, but the circulation still doesn't appear to be well-defined at this time.

convection is now beginning to deepen in association with that southern vort and MLC... wonder how it will look when recon leaves.

Yup! And there appears to be some additional inflow from the west side to help fuel the convection. Maybe the GFS was onto something with all the southerly short-term track forecast

track ..yeah maybe.. organization not even close.. if you remember the HWRF a few days ago had a central to southern islands impact as a strengthening system..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:39pm EDT:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:49pm EDT:

[PTrackerLA]

Circulation on the MIMIC TPW imagery is becoming rather elongated looking now. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Super wide views through 12:49pm EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

ok recon check both vorts out and flew threw the place between them( the mean center). pressure dropped to 1009mb. its close to a potential upgrade. pressure the NHC will hold off to see if the center becomes more organized.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon through 12:59pm EDT and visible satellite through 12:59pm EDT (https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/):