ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#721 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:08 pm

Where they found the lowest pressure is north of where the models initialize this, quite interesting

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#722 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:10 pm

don't forget to keep your eye on the long range WPC QPF maps. the current 7 day shows heavy rain over south florida and the southern portions of central florida...basically south of a line from Bradenton to vero beach is painted with 5"+. It'll be worth watching these maps update with time. You may recall this product performed well with the heavy rain event over the northern gulf earlier this month.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#723 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:12 pm

psyclone wrote:don't forget to keep your eye on the long range WPC QPF maps. the current 7 day shows heavy rain over south florida and the southern portions of central florida...basically south of a line from Bradenton to vero beach is painted with 5"+. It'll be worth watching these maps update with time. You may recall this product performed well with the heavy rain event over the northern gulf earlier this month.


Agreed, but isn't that derived from the GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#724 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:13 pm

:uarrow: I have no idea but that's a boatload of water for a model not keen on development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#725 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:14 pm

Last image from me, through 1:09pm EDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#726 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:15 pm

Steve wrote:
psyclone wrote:don't forget to keep your eye on the long range WPC QPF maps. the current 7 day shows heavy rain over south florida and the southern portions of central florida...basically south of a line from Bradenton to vero beach is painted with 5"+. It'll be worth watching these maps update with time. You may recall this product performed well with the heavy rain event over the northern gulf earlier this month.


Agreed, but isn't that derived from the GFS?


WPC QPF forecasts are made by meteorologists at the WPC. It incorporate many models and weight. So it is a forecast rather than model output.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fam2.shtml#qpf

Whether or not 99L actually becomes something, the overall sense they have is that being below the upper ridge as well as the large envelope of precipitable water from the system (storm or not) could mean lots of rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#727 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:18 pm

The hurricane hunters just flew through the area to the northwest and found no hint of westerly winds. The southern area might be the center we have been looking for.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#728 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:23 pm

Thanks. I knew they didn't usually release it until the 00z or 12z GFS was run, but I'm glad it's only a potion of what goes into it.
----------------------
I watched Bastardi's cup of weather joe, and he put into words those thoughts posted earlier in the tweet. He, with a pimp slap to the GFS, thinks that 99L starts to ramp up considerably nearing shore and draws a line up the FL East Coast maybe into the SEUS and then out to the north of there. Meanwhile, Fiona gets trapped and pushed by the ridge, crosses Florida and could become a player in the Central or Western Gulf ramping up nearer to possible landfall with the water warm enough to support a system in the Gulf as well as in/near the Bahamas. He finishes by noting that the GFS "doesn't even see 99L" which I disagree with, but I know what he's getting at.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#729 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:24 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:The hurricane hunters just flew through the area to the northwest and found no hint of westerly winds. The southern area might be the center we have been looking for.

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Surface pressure was higher on the southern area of vorticity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#730 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:25 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#731 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:30 pm

NDG wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:The hurricane hunters just flew through the area to the northwest and found no hint of westerly winds. The southern area might be the center we have been looking for.

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Surface pressure was higher on the southern area of vorticity.


Forgot to look at that, this system is giving me a headache. :oops:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#732 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:33 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
NDG wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:The hurricane hunters just flew through the area to the northwest and found no hint of westerly winds. The southern area might be the center we have been looking for.

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Surface pressure was higher on the southern area of vorticity.


Forgot to look at that, this system is giving me a headache. :oops:



Me too, I'm going to take a break. This storm is special when the "Model" Thread has over 100 pages and has almost 3 times more pages than the "Discussion" thread, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#733 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:34 pm



It seemed to be doing better with the N/NE shear yesterday. It was probably helping a bit more with developing that MLC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#734 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:35 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
NDG wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:The hurricane hunters just flew through the area to the northwest and found no hint of westerly winds. The southern area might be the center we have been looking for.

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Surface pressure was higher on the southern area of vorticity.


Forgot to look at that, this system is giving me a headache. :oops:



the southern end nor the northern end would have the lowest pressure it would be the "mean center" which in this case did have the lowest pressure.. nothing spooky going on..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#735 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:43 pm

Also, ECMWF 00Z disagrees completely with the JTWC's depiction of Lionrock. It goes into Southern Japan around 917mb (super typhoon) and then crosses it and heads toward Korea. I'm not sure if the JTWC organization or the ECMWF model are right or if there is a blend. But the downstream implications for the US couldn't be more divergent. One is a Cat 3+ storm making landfall in southern Japan (corresponding to US East Coast 7-10 days later) and the other is a stall and spin south of Japan and then a hook out ENE which corresponds more with a stall in the Bahamas and then way out to sea. No doubt it's going to be some type of blend, but the 12z ECMWF should help clear (hopefully) some of what's going on in the WPAC up and hopefully in the W Atlantic as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#736 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:50 pm

I hope it clears it up but I suspect it's going to throw a big wrench into the works, unless the naked swirl of Fiona is really meaningless to development and just throwing the lessor models for a loop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#737 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:52 pm

40%/60% as of 2pm EDT.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#738 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:54 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#739 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:55 pm

Of course it's early, but I just don't feel like this will be the storm that breaks up the 11+ year without hurricanes making landfall in Florida. As always, it isn't a matter of if, more a matter of when; that said, Florida is due a hit at some point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#740 Postby StormHunter72 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 12:57 pm

It is not forecast to develop yet.
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