ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

In the spirit of balance let's invert (since the non pulse-quickening options never get their fair exposure)...chance of non development within 48 hours...60%. chance of non development in the next 5 days...40%.

[wxman57]

No depression today (as expected), and probably not until it nears the eastern Bahamas in 3-4 days. That's when it may get its act together. Lots (and lots) of uncertainty as to what will become of this. Could be a hurricane threat to south Florida then the eastern Gulf, might never develop at all. I stand by my Port Arthur to Bermuda prediction...

[SoupBone]

No depression today (as expected), and probably not until it nears the eastern Bahamas in 3-4 days. That's when it may get its act together. Lots (and lots) of uncertainty as to what will become of this. Could be a hurricane threat to south Florida then the eastern Gulf, might never develop at all. I stand by my Port Arthur to Bermuda prediction...

You are one of the regulars I watch the most, and to see this response (as I saw a few days ago) is interesting.

[SouthFLTropics]

No depression today (as expected), and probably not until it nears the eastern Bahamas in 3-4 days. That's when it may get its act together. Lots (and lots) of uncertainty as to what will become of this. Could be a hurricane threat to south Florida then the eastern Gulf, might never develop at all. I stand by my Port Arthur to Bermuda prediction...

It's good to see someone standing their ground for their convictions and forecasts...LOL

[SFLcane]

Hurricane threat

[SouthFLTropics]

Hurricane threat

For sure...The Euro is painting a target on us with a huge ridge over head and a threat from the ESE.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro essentially shows South Florida Katrina Part Two. Develop in the Bahamas and then W to WSW into Metropolitan South Florida. The next big question is where does it go from here.

[NotoSans]

NHC is probably a bit conservative with their probabilities as they may have take into the account the GFS solution. Latest Euro has trended stronger and shifted the time of genesis earlier.

[gatorcane]

Tough forecast for the NHC. This is the most uncertainty I have seen in a while. We are medium-range within 5 days and the GFS and Euro completely disagree on whether a storm will even form. How often do you see that?

If the Euro is indeed right we are only talking 5 days and timeframe closing in (the Euro has sped things up), this could catch many off guard here.

One would think NHC would increase development chances at 8pmest regardless of what the GFS does just to be on the safe side to give folks enough warning.

[Weatherboy1]

I am certainly not a professional. But I have a very hard time seeing how 99 doesn't get its act together and (potentially) intensify fairly quickly in the SE Bahamas (and perhaps sooner). As someone said before, either the GFS is REALLY going to score big with this ... or 99 could turn out to be a much bigger headache than currently anticipated. Historically, we've had some pretty strong systems hit the east coast of FL from this approach angle and with this kind of set up (WNW/NW heading ... then a blocking ridge forcing the storm W into the coastline).

[sma10]

So .. 3rd Euro run in a row showing SE FL landfall, seems to be locking onto this type of track; but a question regarding strength: there's a lot of excitement being generated, and while a 985-990mb system is not to be sneezed at, it's certainly not going to knock your house down. My point is - how seriously does the NHC take the EURO in this area for their predictions? I know that they hold it's tracking skill in high regard, but I seem to recall discussions where they have "poo-poohed" the globals ability to predict wind speed.

[jlauderdal]

Euro essentially shows South Florida Katrina Part Two. Develop in the Bahamas and then W to WSW into Metropolitan South Florida. The next big question is where does it go from here.

its headed to the gulf if the euro verifies..the ridging is such that it will make it across(its only 2 degrees)

[jlauderdal]

So .. 3rd Euro run in a row showing SE FL landfall, seems to be locking onto this type of track; but a question regarding strength: there's a lot of excitement being generated, and while a 985-990mb system is not to be sneezed at, it's certainly not going to knock your house down. My point is - how seriously does the NHC take the EURO in this area for their predictions? I know that they hold it's tracking skill in high regard, but I seem to recall discussions where they have "poo-poohed" the globals ability to predict wind speed.

intensity forecasting very difficult..this one is difficult for track and intensity because there is no center and the respected gfs is all over the place, if it aligns more closely with the consistent euro then we have something...the 3x consistent euro has to be taken very seriously at this point but you cant discount the gfs entirely...no defined system yet so wait and see approach is in order

[Tireman4]

So .. 3rd Euro run in a row showing SE FL landfall, seems to be locking onto this type of track; but a question regarding strength: there's a lot of excitement being generated, and while a 985-990mb system is not to be sneezed at, it's certainly not going to knock your house down. My point is - how seriously does the NHC take the EURO in this area for their predictions? I know that they hold it's tracking skill in high regard, but I seem to recall discussions where they have "poo-poohed" the globals ability to predict wind speed.

intensity forecasting very difficult..this one is difficult for track and intensity because there is no center and the respected gfs is all over the place, if it aligns more closely with the consistent euro then we have something...the 3x consistent euro has to be taken very seriously at this point but you cant discount the gfs entirely...no defined system yet so wait and see approach is in order

Agreed. Still way way too early. This is just something to chew on, I think ( Again, I am not a Met..LOL)


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[AJC3]

What it looks like to me in 99L is a strong, negatively-tilted (with respect to westward motion) topical wave axis with a very elongated envelope of circulation, a weak vortmax in the middle. Based on cloud motion, I'd say the greatest low level convergence appears to be near the south end of the wave axis.

[Weatherboy1]

Personally, I'll be watching the area around 16N/57W or so. that seems to be as close to a potential low-level center as I can find on visible imagery. IF we were to see some deep convection blow up around that area, then I think we'd be cooking with Crisco in terms of development. We'll see...

[Aric Dunn]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

[tolakram]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

I see outflow boundaries everywhere, looks like convection si pausing again for the evening, as usual, IMO. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. edit: I see building convection over the southern 'feature'.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

[TheStormExpert]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

In my opinion we should know within the next 24hrs. which model solution is right, the Euro or the GFS.

[Ntxw]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

I see outflow boundaries everywhere, looks like convection si pausing again for the evening, as usual, IMO. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. edit: I see building convection over the southern 'feature'.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

Outflows are usually a sign of collapsing thunderstorms as the rain cooled air stabilizes the atmosphere