ATL: HERMINE - Models

[tolakram]

Weatherbell: 937mb just south of Mobile (186h)

[PTrackerLA]

12 EURO Hi-res has 932mb just before landfall at Mobile Bay 186hrs.

[Kingarabian]

931mb at 186.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/768156303915089920

[Tireman4]

trend is west........still a week out, could we keep seeing the trend west who knows but that's not good

Indeed. This could go anywhere. Hopefully, it would stay a fish. Still a long time for all factors to be worked out, I would think.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[centuryv58]

trend is west........still a week out, could we keep seeing the trend west who knows but that's not good

Indeed. This could go anywhere. Hopefully, it would stay a fish. Still a long time for all factors to be worked out, I would think.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Can't see any of that, sorry to say. The evidence is too strong for west.

[BigB0882]

Two questions:

1. Does the Euro move the ridge off more slowly than previous runs? This didn't seem to hook to the NNE and NE as sharply as it did in previous runs.

2. That tweet says the Euro is known for having the ridges too strong. I thought it was known for the opposite, for often breaking down ridges too quickly. What is it?

[Alyono]

final landfall between 935mb and 940mb

[TheStormExpert]

In my opinion if in 24hrs. the Euro is still with a same/similar solution into S. FL I think it will be time to start paying much more attention.

[deltadog03]

In all seriousness....the EURO is locked on this idea...maybe not this strong every run, but its locked into a pretty good idea this is going to develop and the strength could be significant. I think this is 3-5 runs in a row of developing it?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/768155816453140480

[SunnyThoughts]

final landfall between 935mb and 940mb

In your estimation, ballpark figure, what would the windspeed be at that point?

[Weatherboy1]

trend is west........still a week out, could we keep seeing the trend west who knows but that's not good

Indeed. This could go anywhere. Hopefully, it would stay a fish. Still a long time for all factors to be worked out, I would think.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Can't see any of that, sorry to say. The evidence is too strong for west.

Yes, I agree that this is looking much less "fish-worthy" with each passing model run. Unlike with many, many other storms over the past few seasons -- where the models were indicating ridging 7-8 days out, but giving up on that idea as the much more reliable <5 day time frame approached -- the models are all GENERALLY converging on a strong ridge scenario. The particulars of exactly where 99 lands, and how strong she is when she does so, still need to be worked out. But the fish scenario looks much less likely to me.

As for strength, that's the problem. This could be a few thunderstorms, per GFS, or a low-to-mid-grade hurricane, per various runs of models like the HWRF over the past few days. Too bad intensity is the hardest for models to predict, especially with the remains of Fiona sticking around like an ex-wife that won't leave! LOL

[BobHarlem]

Next frame has it already up in the NC/Tennessee mountains, still strong enough to do some damage to places in Alabama and even Atlanta will be on the dirty side of that storm. Hope this one does not verify.

[stormlover2013]

this is about 400 miles difference from the euro last run

[Tireman4]

Indeed. This could go anywhere. Hopefully, it would stay a fish. Still a long time for all factors to be worked out, I would think.



Can't see any of that, sorry to say. The evidence is too strong for west.

Yes, I agree that this is looking much less "fish-worthy" with each passing model run. Unlike with many, many other storms over the past few seasons -- where the models were indicating ridging 7-8 days out, but giving up on that idea as the much more reliable <5 day time frame approached -- the models are all GENERALLY converging on a strong ridge scenario. The particulars of exactly where 99 lands, and how strong she is when she does so, still need to be worked out. But the fish scenario looks much less likely to me.

As for strength, that's the problem. This could be a few thunderstorms, per GFS, or a low-to-mid-grade hurricane, per various runs of models like the HWRF over the past few days. Too bad intensity is the hardest for models to predict, especially with the remains of Fiona sticking around like an ex-wife that won't leave! LOL

Yeah, I was being hopefully optimistic about being a fish storm.

[Kingarabian]

Well so much for the East shift that was being forecast.

[LarryWx]

I'm still wary of the Euro often strengthening TC's too much since 2010, especially above 25N. Caution advised. Ironically, Fiona of 2010 was one of the first storms that was a victim of this over bullishness.

[StormHunter72]

Scary since the margin of error days out is great. west coast of florida Sarasota north to big bend west to la is under the gun at this point.

[SeGaBob]

Too far west for me to get anything that run of the euro. We need the rain bad...