ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it's weakening.

[SouthDadeFish]

The convection off the NW is indeed spitting out a ton of outflow boundaries. However, the area where recon found the lowest pressures and the area further to the south (where the evident MLC was located this morning) is looking pretty good. There are signs of the low-level cloud deck thickening which may set the stage for another intense convective burst this evening. I have my eye around 16.5N 58W.

online photo storage

[Gustywind]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

Sure about that assertion Aric? Not the best scenario if this pan's out. So we have to monitor more than closely 99L us in the Leewards and even those who are in the southern Windwards

[tolakram]

Yep, I completely missed that, and it sure looks like a solid LLC is forming. Did the models initialize this far south?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

[SouthDadeFish]

Yep, I completely missed that, and it sure looks like a solid LLC is forming. Did the models initialize this far south?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

The EC intializiation doesn't look too bad, in my opinion. The GFS might have started too weak, but position looks okay.

[Weatherboy1]

Outflow expanding to the SW and NE too, correct? All we need is some deep convection to fire over that southern area around 16N, and I think this thing pops ...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yep, I completely missed that, and it sure looks like a solid LLC is forming. Did the models initialize this far south?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

Looks like ECMWF did. GFS did as well.

[Bocadude85]

Yep, I completely missed that, and it sure looks like a solid LLC is forming. Did the models initialize this far south?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

The Euro initialization looks to be pretty good. Hour 0 is SE of Guadeloupe

[Alyono]

this now looks like a developing cyclone

[StormHunter72]

Looks elongated
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks to be trying to wrap up to me and this could get going sooner than most models think. Hoping for a trough but I respect the ECMWF too much to think one will be there.

[cycloneye]

The convection off the NW is indeed spitting out a ton of outflow boundaries. However, the area where recon found the lowest pressures and the area further to the south (where the evident MLC was located this morning) is looking pretty good. There are signs of the low-level cloud deck thickening which may set the stage for another intense convective burst this evening. I have my eye around 16.5N 58W.

https://s10.postimg.org/si52vrzbd/rgb0_lalo.gifonline photo storage

Almost there,good eye.18z Best Track.

Location: 16.6°N 58.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[Weatherboy1]

this now looks like a developing cyclone

Too bad recon flight wasn't a couple hours later!

[StormHunter72]

Looks to be trying to wrap up to me and this could get going sooner than most models think. Hoping for a trough but I respect the ECMWF too much to think one will be there.

Too broad to ramp up

[LarryWx]

It this goes ahead and forms a TC, the GFS/GEFS runs of 4 days ago that had it develop around 55-60W will deserve mucho kudos.

[SouthDadeFish]

The convection off the NW is indeed spitting out a ton of outflow boundaries. However, the area where recon found the lowest pressures and the area further to the south (where the evident MLC was located this morning) is looking pretty good. There are signs of the low-level cloud deck thickening which may set the stage for another intense convective burst this evening. I have my eye around 16.5N 58W.

https://s10.postimg.org/si52vrzbd/rgb0_lalo.gifonline photo storage

Almost there,good eye.18z Best Track.

Location: 16.6°N 58.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

I'll take being off by 0.1 degrees

I agree with those saying this is starting to take shape. The 12Z Euro's forecast of a consolidated vort max in the northern Lesser Antilles by 12Z tomorrow looks reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

convection still increasing. banding beginning to become evident with the developing circ to the south. also becoming more symmetrical. trends continue may be looking at TS into the islands tomorrow.

Sure about that assertion Aric? Not the best scenario if this pan's out. So we have to monitor more than closely 99L us in the Leewards and even those who are in the southern Windwards

Quite sure. the northern extent of the wave axis is heavily tilted however the southern portion and specifically the area recon found. has nothing by increasing inflow and a band setting up on the SE side and another starting to thicken on the NW side. also note the eastern carribean ... notice all of a sudden the last few hours the flow changed from northerly to a wnw flow farther south and nw flow towards the northern part. All signs pressure are falling in the area where the vort recon found and the MLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[alienstorm]

This is where the LLC is trying to form

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks just a tad bit further south to me but the distance is not that much. It just needs one big blob of convection to fire over it to get it really going

[Aric Dunn]

this will help greatly over the course of the night. still far out. but you can see a lot of NW, WNW , and W inflow into the southern portion.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles