ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Going to do a live video soon, nothing to fancy for now, but some updated thoughts join me!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

[AJC3]

this will help greatly over the course of the night. still far out. but you can see a lot of NW, WNW , and W inflow into the southern portion.

Even better, the Barbados Weather Service has some new and improved radar composites now...

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_radar_Composite.php

And of course, Brian McNoldy may be putting together a long loop here soon...

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

[SFLcane]

this now looks like a developing cyclone

It's s good thing when your onboard

[Aric Dunn]

this will help greatly over the course of the night. still far out. but you can see a lot of NW, WNW , and W inflow into the southern portion.

Even better, the Barbados Weather Service has some new and improved radar composites now...

http://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_radar_Composite.php

And of course, Brian McNoldy may be putting together a long loop here soon...

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

and flhurricane he has the loop already running.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?214

[Medtronic15]

It's real?

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, the ECM run looks devastating and we all know it can be conservative on intensity!

[Tireman4]

this now looks like a developing cyclone

It's s good thing when your onboard

That is why he and Wxman 57 get paid the big bucks...

[tolakram]

I'm struck by how good outflow looks already, both on the north and south side of the new blob.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-59&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray

[SunnyThoughts]

Going to do a live video soon, nothing to fancy for now, but some updated thoughts join me!
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/

Was a great update Chris, thanks so much.

[tolakram]

Moving right under an anti-cyclone?

[Nimbus]

The elongated low level circulation has been delaying development but with the mean surface pressure still up near 1009 it only needs some persistent convection to establish a dominant center. Hoping my southern track bias verifies with tropical storm conditions for the islands all the way to Cuba. If the high mountains of Haiti beat it up enough we might not see pressures dropping into the low 930's in the gulf.

[RL3AO]

I've been fairly impressed with how well its continued to develop convection this afternoon. A big blowup over the center tonight could go a long way in developing a healthy vortex.

[gatorcane]

I think convection wanes some for the next several hours into the evening as we hit diurnal min but convection fires back in a hurry later this evening and overnight as we hit DMAX. Note the Euro develops a pretty good vort within the next 24 hours so we will see if that verifies.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html
Looks like some shear impacting 99l now...

[RL3AO]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html
Looks like some shear impacting 99l now...

On the north side? That looks like some healthy outflow developing to me.

[sma10]

Was just thinking how Dade/Broward/Monroe emergency officials must be sweating profusely right now. Their nightmare scenario is not a CV long-tracker, but rather a poorly organized, late bloomer in the Bahamas (that is barely getting 50% model support at this point). Imagine for a moment if a blend of EUROs track with HWRF's previous intensity is realized ... officials will really only KNOW for sure what's going to happen by Friday earliest - they would have to evacuate tremendous loads... yikes.

[RL3AO]

Was just thinking how Dade/Broward/Monroe emergency officials must be sweating profusely right now. Their nightmare scenario is not a CV long-tracker, but rather a poorly organized, late bloomer in the Bahamas (that is barely getting 50% model support at this point). Imagine for a moment if a blend of EUROs track with HWRF's previous intensity is realized ... officials will really only KNOW for sure what's going to happen by Friday earliest - they would have to evacuate tremendous loads... yikes.

I can imagine that preparations for a cat 2 would be starting today or tomorrow in S FL emergency management offices. Euro has landfall in 5 days.

[gatorcane]

Was just thinking how Dade/Broward/Monroe emergency officials must be sweating profusely right now. Their nightmare scenario is not a CV long-tracker, but rather a poorly organized, late bloomer in the Bahamas (that is barely getting 50% model support at this point). Imagine for a moment if a blend of EUROs track with HWRF's previous intensity is realized ... officials will really only KNOW for sure what's going to happen by Friday earliest - they would have to evacuate tremendous loads... yikes.

I can imagine that preparations for a cat 2 would be starting today or tomorrow in S FL emergency management offices. Euro has landfall in 5 days.

Yes this has been my concern also. The South Florida media really hasn't picked up on it yet looking at the headlines in the Sun-Sentinel and Palmbeachpost which mention this wave could have an impact on U.S and that is about it. If it quickly ramps up in the Bahamas, there wouldn't be a lot of time. The Euro is showing South Florida impacts starting 5 days from now and for a pretty quick ramp-up before landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Was just thinking how Dade/Broward/Monroe emergency officials must be sweating profusely right now. Their nightmare scenario is not a CV long-tracker, but rather a poorly organized, late bloomer in the Bahamas (that is barely getting 50% model support at this point). Imagine for a moment if a blend of EUROs track with HWRF's previous intensity is realized ... officials will really only KNOW for sure what's going to happen by Friday earliest - they would have to evacuate tremendous loads... yikes.

monroe is very tricky as they need several days to evacuate and if its just a trop storm then intensifies quickly they have people stuck down there...very few residents evacuate its mostly visitors


no need to sweat anything right now...its not even a td

[gatorcane]

Nice anti-cyclone starting to build over top of 99L as the cloud tops are fanning symmetrically and turning in a clockwise fashion = good for development.

Still dry air around though which is keeping 99L in check for now.