ATL: HERMINE - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2141 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2016 2:55 pm

12Z UKMET:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2142 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:17 pm

Euro ensembles almost all head it into Florida:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768179580482052096


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2143 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:17 pm

Massive increase in support from the Euro ensembles.


Counting 38/51 members, ~25 in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2144 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:20 pm

I was just about to post about the EPS. Lots of agreement about east Florida and then a lot of spread after that. Seven days out has storms from Mexico to the Outer Banks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2145 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:30 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Euro ensembles almost all head it into Florida:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768179580482052096




The Euro 12z is @12-24 hours faster than 00z bringing 99L to Florida... Speeding 99L's arrival up will make a likely impact on Florida and points west at this point given the ridge setup... JMHO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2146 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:50 pm

I looked at BOTH the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means and they had this in the western Gulf towards northern Mexico? I'm still leaning towards that with the ridge holding firm all the way...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2147 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:51 pm

Interesting that the 12z runs of GFS, HWRF & GFDL show no development (or very little development). They kind of lost the storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2148 Postby Kazmit » Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:53 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Interesting that the 12z runs of GFS, HWRF & GFDL show no development (or very little development). They kind of lost the storm.
Even more strange that early on the GFS predicted a Cat 5 monster, while the Euro showed nothing of it. They kind of completely swapped places now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2149 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:05 pm

18z Gfs starts in less than 30 minutes. I should probably give it until tonight's 00z run...but I think this is it for the GFS. If it continues to show no development AND ends up being right, it will be one of the biggest model performances ever. If it ends up being wrong, the level of bustation (is that even a word?) will be astronomical...and we should probably have a discussion over at the Talkin' Tropics side.

Lets see what 18z does in just a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2150 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:06 pm

18Z NAM which uses NCEP data that goes into the GFS continues to show a pretty hostile environment for 99l in the Southeastern Bahamas at hour 84. Two upper-level lows are hitting it with shear, one over Florida and the other to the NE of the Bahamas. I wonder if the GFS will continue to go with no development on this run coming up in 30 minutes?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2151 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:09 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:18z Gfs starts in less than 30 minutes. I should probably give it until tonight's 00z run...but I think this is it for the GFS. If it continues to show no development AND ends up being right, it will be one of the biggest model performances ever. If it ends up being wrong, the level of bustation (is that even a word?) will be astronomical...and we should probably have a discussion over at the Talkin' Tropics side.

Lets see what 18z does in just a bit.


Yeah, this run will be interesting. I was living in Wisconsin this past winter. I remember a couple of times where the GFS and Euro were at odds, and the Euro caved to the GFS, which was kind of the opposite of what some people were expecting. This is a bit different of course... tropical genesis is a different process compared to winter storms, so maybe not a compelling point, but I do remember the GFS taking it a few times recently.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2152 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:25 pm

Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2153 Postby davidiowx » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:27 pm

GlennOBX wrote:Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.


Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the model starts at 18z but takes about 4 hours to complete. Thus why we see the data way after the initialization of the model run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2154 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:27 pm

18z models do have the recon data ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2155 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:28 pm

GlennOBX wrote:Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.


It takes the four hours to collect data and run the model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2156 Postby lrak » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:30 pm

It looks like all the models have this thing north of where it actually looks to be forming. How will that affect its track, into hostile or non-hostile conditions? NEED SURF :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2157 Postby Frank2 » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:38 pm

The models do seem to initialize about 2 degrees north of where convection keeps forming - that can make a big difference. If it does form further south and goes into the Caribbean, that would change things completely.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2158 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:40 pm

Frank2 wrote:The models do seem to initialize about 2 degrees north of where convection keeps forming - that can make a big difference. If it does form further south and goes into the Caribbean, that would change things completely.

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won't change anything. In fact, ECMWF initialized at the southern location
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2159 Postby paintplaye » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:40 pm

Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2160 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:42 pm

Image

GFS still insists on making something of a small swirl of clouds that was Fiona.
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