
ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Euro ensembles almost all head it into Florida:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768179580482052096
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768179580482052096
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Massive increase in support from the Euro ensembles.
Counting 38/51 members, ~25 in the Gulf.
Counting 38/51 members, ~25 in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I was just about to post about the EPS. Lots of agreement about east Florida and then a lot of spread after that. Seven days out has storms from Mexico to the Outer Banks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
BobHarlem wrote:Euro ensembles almost all head it into Florida:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/768179580482052096
The Euro 12z is @12-24 hours faster than 00z bringing 99L to Florida... Speeding 99L's arrival up will make a likely impact on Florida and points west at this point given the ridge setup... JMHO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
I looked at BOTH the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means and they had this in the western Gulf towards northern Mexico? I'm still leaning towards that with the ridge holding firm all the way...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Interesting that the 12z runs of GFS, HWRF & GFDL show no development (or very little development). They kind of lost the storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Even more strange that early on the GFS predicted a Cat 5 monster, while the Euro showed nothing of it. They kind of completely swapped places now...Emmett_Brown wrote:Interesting that the 12z runs of GFS, HWRF & GFDL show no development (or very little development). They kind of lost the storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z Gfs starts in less than 30 minutes. I should probably give it until tonight's 00z run...but I think this is it for the GFS. If it continues to show no development AND ends up being right, it will be one of the biggest model performances ever. If it ends up being wrong, the level of bustation (is that even a word?) will be astronomical...and we should probably have a discussion over at the Talkin' Tropics side.
Lets see what 18z does in just a bit.
Lets see what 18z does in just a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18Z NAM which uses NCEP data that goes into the GFS continues to show a pretty hostile environment for 99l in the Southeastern Bahamas at hour 84. Two upper-level lows are hitting it with shear, one over Florida and the other to the NE of the Bahamas. I wonder if the GFS will continue to go with no development on this run coming up in 30 minutes?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:18z Gfs starts in less than 30 minutes. I should probably give it until tonight's 00z run...but I think this is it for the GFS. If it continues to show no development AND ends up being right, it will be one of the biggest model performances ever. If it ends up being wrong, the level of bustation (is that even a word?) will be astronomical...and we should probably have a discussion over at the Talkin' Tropics side.
Lets see what 18z does in just a bit.
Yeah, this run will be interesting. I was living in Wisconsin this past winter. I remember a couple of times where the GFS and Euro were at odds, and the Euro caved to the GFS, which was kind of the opposite of what some people were expecting. This is a bit different of course... tropical genesis is a different process compared to winter storms, so maybe not a compelling point, but I do remember the GFS taking it a few times recently.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.
Thanks in advance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GlennOBX wrote:Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.
Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the model starts at 18z but takes about 4 hours to complete. Thus why we see the data way after the initialization of the model run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
18z models do have the recon data ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
GlennOBX wrote:Sorry for the "101 level" question folks, but I'm confused about something. Why is a model run called the 18z model run, if it didn't start until almost 4 hours after 18z?
Thanks in advance.
It takes the four hours to collect data and run the model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
It looks like all the models have this thing north of where it actually looks to be forming. How will that affect its track, into hostile or non-hostile conditions? NEED SURF 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
The models do seem to initialize about 2 degrees north of where convection keeps forming - that can make a big difference. If it does form further south and goes into the Caribbean, that would change things completely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Frank2 wrote:The models do seem to initialize about 2 degrees north of where convection keeps forming - that can make a big difference. If it does form further south and goes into the Caribbean, that would change things completely.
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won't change anything. In fact, ECMWF initialized at the southern location
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Last edited by tolakram on Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

GFS still insists on making something of a small swirl of clouds that was Fiona.
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