ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

I know vorticity might be consolidating further north but 16N, 58W does look interesting hmmm...

You can easily see a noticeable spin at the end of the loop.

[Aric Dunn]

As it passing near and over the radar/islands overnight we will have plenty of data without a plane.

[gatorcane]

and if you look carefully that 16N, 58W area seems to be getting tugged more to the NW.

[TheStormExpert]

I know vorticity might be consolidating further north but 16N, 58W does look interesting hmmm...

You can easily see a noticeable spin at the end of the loop.

Yep that's where the greatest vorticity is.

[BucMan2]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

[Florida1118]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

They already answered that for you We don't know. It's still unknown how much it will develop, if at all, or where it will go. Just stay tuned.

[bob rulz]

Almost anywhere on the coast is in play right now. Relax. Make appropriate preparations, but it's far too early for any one specific area to panic.

[johngaltfla]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

Tampa is always in play until the storm passes 27.5 N. I'm waiting to see what tomorrow's developments bring us because the models have trouble grasping waves. Paul D is on Channel 13 now and his input is invaluable.

[HurricaneBelle]

How much weight should we put into the Euro as far as the track given where 5 days out or so? Is the West Coast of Florida Tampa -St.Pete still in play?

No way to know as others have said. If the latest Euro run verifies, it wouldn't be as bad as yesterday's which had it go in at the Big Bend. This run would probably bring possible TS conditions to the TB area, and there would be coastal flooding from it churning not far to the SW, as well as a possible tornado threat. Since it likely will hit from the east, the worst-case scenario is a Frances/Jeanne high-end TS event on this side of the state unless it were a Cat 3/4 monster when it hit the east coast and was moving at a decent clip.

The real concern would be something like yesterday's Euro run which had it exiting near Venice and then moving parallel not that far offshore, which would rake the FL west coast. The only way for a direct hurricane hit in the TB area would be for it to maybe cross the state near the Everglades/Keys and then hook back NE from the Gulf, which seems very unlikely.

[abajan]

Dead calm here as it has been so for most of the afternoon. I wanted to check what the pressure and wind direction has been today but unfortunately, the site to monitor current weather around the world has finally been removed. No rain at this location today but judging by the latest satellite images, it looks like some may be on the way tonight.

[psyclone]

based on the level of organization/convective tenacity I expect the NHC to lift those development probs. I do wonder how much this system is destined to get tangled up with Hispaniola... seems like a decent possibility... nevertheless I think the odds are tilting in favor of eventual development.

[Alyono]

at least the MU has decent vorticity at 850mb this time

[tolakram]

based on the level of organization/convective tenacity I expect the NHC to lift those development probs. I do wonder how much this system is destined to get tangled up with Hispaniola... seems like a decent possibility... nevertheless I think the odds are tilting in favor of eventual development.

Both the GFS and Euro have this well north of Hispaniola now, that doesn't seem to to be the issue. The GFS seems to insist that the remains of Fiona are strong enough to hinder development, at least that's my amateur analysis based on what the GFS keeps showing.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just some current obs from East Coast FL...ridge is firmly in place here. Flow has been from the east all day with winds up to 10MPH at my home weather station. And it's been very HOT!!!

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for the Northern Leewards ( Sint Marteen and Sint Barth) for a risk of strong showers and tstorms given our pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[beoumont]

Water temperature at Fowrey Rocks Buoy 7 miles SE of Miami is 88 degrees.

[RL3AO]

Prepare for the LA and maybe TX posters to get a little more interested. Just a hunch.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tigerz3030]

First and foremost, this is my first post and I appreciate and enjoy all these discussions and insights.

With that being said, I live in St Augustine, FL, are starting to rule this system out for that far NE in FL?

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has 99L or Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico with good conditions and no intensity change really....hmmm. Trended toward the ECMWF.

[psyclone]

Water temperature at Fowrey Rocks Buoy 7 miles SE of Miami is 88 degrees.

over here on the gulf side our water is in the upper 80's to near 90. the high today in tampa was 95...99 in Sarasota. the relentless heat this summer (along with somewhat below normal precip) has made the coastal waters even warmer than normal...remarkable warmth